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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:the deal wrote:By July-August we could be talking of an interim dividend, what this years loss will be hiding is the amount of organic growth & lessons the mngmnt have gone through...At 14.75 KK is cheaper than most firms at the NSE...An EPS of 2.50-2.75 for FY 2013 pushes the PE to 5.3-5.9 and a Gross DY of 8.4% assuming a DPS of 1.25...Eish the monkey should tank! You mean a dividend for FY 2013? There will be no dividend for FY 2012. I think the DPS of 1.25 is too high even in 2013 but probably lower to shore up the cash position IF KK is still KK & not Puma ;-) For FY 2013...to arrive at a DPS of 1.25 I assumed a 50% payout ratio on an EPS of 2.5 for FY 2013. ..I expect CAPEX over the next 2-3 years to be lower than the last to 3-5 years hence more dividends to shareholders. Go for 40% Div Payout coz that is what KK has traditionally done. That said, I think KK should 'preserve' cash & pay out in a bonus [Centum, NIC] instead.It is an election year so 1Q 2013 may be slow as folks do not have cash [reduced real economic activity] & then inflationary pressures as the government is starved of cash. Plus all the confusion. All that said, I think KK will continue going strong in 2013. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:guru267 wrote:Maybe Segman is deliberately not making an official announcement so that the fall in the share price is managed and gives some guys a chance to exit at a higher price!  Huh? How? The buyers (unless they are 'desperate' to buy) can always wait it out. And would they not have exited much earlier BEFORE the sub-standard story? Finally, Segman reports to the 'real' owners [the biwott & friends] who can't sell their 60% without the CMA breathing down their necks. Im talking about EXITING and RE ENTERING at a lower price.. Whats the point of holding shares you bought at 14bob?? Sell now and re enter at below 10bob... If it was an official statement the price would have fallen straight to 10 causing huge loss to those who are attempting to exit! The guys who sold at 14.50 are just lucky!! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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I love this ;-) As a long termer the short-term downside movements [when I have cash] is a chance to jump in with both feet. Fall, baby, fall ;-) Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/8/2007 Posts: 808
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The Deal is very much alive ignore the media or better still another excellent buying opportunity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Kausha wrote:The Deal is very much alive.  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
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Quote:A highly-placed manager at KenolKobil has revealed that Puma has lost interest in the deal following a series of hold-ups, among them, the unsettled KenolKobil debts in the country’s biggest take-over deal. Quote:“Puma seems to have lost interest in the takeover bid and it’s easy to read this trend from the senior management,” said our source who requested anonymity.
“Indication from the top management is that the takeover deal is no more.”
Reading these comments I can only say either the standard is on a fishing expedition or KK is playing mind games...the debts were pubic knowledge and are contentious..anyway...the issue of puma pulling out might not be a shock to me...their due diligence process has taken too long and the communication from KK management has been very poor...I think this story will smoke them out and tell us what the hell is going on. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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If the rumours turn out to be true, I wonder what PUMA's next move will be. I mean, their plan was to increase their African presence. So, start greenfield operations? No way. Find another takeover target? PUMA will be hard pressed to find an OMC with KK's regional presence. KK is a gem. That however will not stop the price from falling if the rumours are true. Na PUMA wakimea pembe waishie. KK ni msawa mbaya. Suitors hawaezi kosekana;-) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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And PUMA made KK fire some folks! If they baulk at the deal, wafanyikazi watarudishwa?  GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Hehe. Kazi ni kuchekacheka wewe. Please share the joke GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The Puma-Kenol deal is still on, theyre just negotiating the price.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Hehe. Kazi ni kuchekacheka wewe. Please share the joke
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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Some folks have shrugged it off and are buying! BIDS 345,500 Quantity Price Splits Time 345,500 13.30 7 13:28:29 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ASKS 727,400 Quantity Price Splits Time 15,000 13.45 1 13:28:29 21,500 13.50 3 13:28:29 226,100 14.50 7 13:28:29 15,700 14.75 3 13:28:29 36,000 14.85 2 13:28:29 TRADES Quantity Price Time 500 13.30 13:28:28 1,500 13.30 13:28:28 1,000 13.45 13:09:51 3,500 13.30 12:55:38 93,700 13.30 12:55:38 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Hehe. Kazi ni kuchekacheka wewe. Please share the joke GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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So far the shakeout has managed to force VWAP to 13.35/- intraday. The bids/ask spread is a river wide - best bid @13.50/- while best ask is @14.95/- with net foreign sells so far with 1.3M shares traded. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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Tumeshinda kura. The future was Orange but turned Blue ;-)
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,107 Location: Nairobi
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Dear Sub-Standard, Thank you!   VVS BIDS 626,800 Quantity Price Splits Time 246,900 13.50 3 14:48:08 9,900 13.35 1 14:48:08 370,000 13.30 8 14:48:08 - - - - - - - - ASKS 700,900 Quantity Price Splits Time 40,000 14.45 1 14:48:08 226,100 14.50 7 14:48:08 15,700 14.75 3 14:48:08 6,000 14.85 1 14:48:08 10,000 14.95 1 14:48:08 TRADES Quantity Price Time 53,100 13.50 14:45:47 146,700 13.50 14:45:47 200 13.50 14:39:03 5,000 13.50 14:17:40 1,000 13.50 14:17:40 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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VWAP @13.35/- Will it bounce from here as it has done this year or will we see a breakdown. Getting interesting this shakeout biz. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
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