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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
Cde Monomotapa
#2321 Posted : Wednesday, December 12, 2012 11:05:21 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
smile
VituVingiSana
#2322 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 2:16:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
Warren Buffett Is a Fool

http://www.fool.com/inve...-buffett-is-a-fool.aspx

"The whole thing about [going long] is," Buffett told Sorkin, "if you know you're right, you can just keep buying." And keep making money, Buffett could easily have added, because barring some core change in the way they operate (which, by the way, means you should check in on your Foolish companies once a quarter, and not watch the share price every day), companies like the ones previously described will provide investors with a lifetime of good returns.

And VVS is a Fool Pray Pray Pray
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
murchr
#2323 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 6:07:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Watching the movements today will be interesting! But I still dont understand why only substandard is privy of this information.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
the deal
#2324 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 7:43:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
By July-August we could be talking of an interim dividend, what this years loss will be hiding is the amount of organic growth & lessons the mngmnt have gone through...At 14.75 KK is cheaper than most firms at the NSE...An EPS of 2.50-2.75 for FY 2013 pushes the PE to 5.3-5.9 and a Gross DY of 8.4% assuming a DPS of 1.25...Eish the monkey should tank!
guru267
#2325 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 8:47:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
If there is one thing any market thrives on it is RUMORS!! Unless Segman or PUMA clarify what is going on, there will be very tough times ahead for the share price...

KK is a good company but after considering everything it should be below 10bob!!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mwekez@ji
#2326 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 9:48:03 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
sib have ignored the rumour in their morning brief smile Am preying for any blood/kneejerk selloff Drool
Jamani
#2327 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 10:00:46 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
seems everyone wants blood to flow no bids..


BIDS -
Quantity Price Splits Time
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
ASKS 784,700
Quantity Price Splits Time
36,000 13.50 1 09:59:56
50,000 14.00 1 09:59:56
20,000 14.40 1 09:59:56
222,400 14.50 6 09:59:56
3,200 14.75 1 09:59:56
TRADES
Quantity Price Time
1,500 13.50 09:59:13
2,500 13.50 09:59:13
22,500 13.50 09:58:01
3,000 14.40 09:37:07
10,100 14.50 09:30:00
mwekez@ji
#2328 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 10:06:13 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Damn 10% barricade!!!
Jamani
#2329 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 10:13:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
its coming home to a better loading price, its all about greed and fear... looks good as i prepare for loading next week... come baby come
mlennyma
#2330 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 10:14:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Segman is known to counter romours on the spot so keeping quiet is a sign of truth...i was quick to sell my small balance of 3k at 14.40
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
VituVingiSana
#2331 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 10:20:12 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
By July-August we could be talking of an interim dividend, what this years loss will be hiding is the amount of organic growth & lessons the mngmnt have gone through...At 14.75 KK is cheaper than most firms at the NSE...An EPS of 2.50-2.75 for FY 2013 pushes the PE to 5.3-5.9 and a Gross DY of 8.4% assuming a DPS of 1.25...Eish the monkey should tank!
You mean a dividend for FY 2013? There will be no dividend for FY 2012. I think the DPS of 1.25 is too high even in 2013 but probably lower to shore up the cash position IF KK is still KK & not Puma ;-)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
hisah
#2332 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 10:36:52 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Waiting for foreigners action soon since the bids and asks are empty for now. Also watching 13.50/- handle which is what is trading at the moment. Support has been hoovering here since the first huge selloff from 16/-
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
guru267
#2333 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 11:01:02 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I'm extremely shocked that we are not yet at the bottom of the 10% limit! People are lucky to sell..

There is even a possible arbitrage position where a long term investor sells their shares at 13.30 now and re buys at 10bob next week!

And it may be too late because from the looks of things demand has left the building!! Sad
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#2334 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 11:07:17 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
Damn 10% barricade!!!

Yes! I told my broker to be ready but there is no official announcement so it is 'stuck' at 13.30! I would not mind another 10% drop!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#2335 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 11:14:51 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
mwekez@ji wrote:
Damn 10% barricade!!!

Yes! I told my broker to be ready but there is no official announcement so it is 'stuck' at 13.30 and I would not mind another 10% drop!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#2336 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 11:15:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Maybe Segman is deliberately not making an official announcement so that the fall in the share price is managed and gives some guys a chance to exit at a higher price! smile
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
the deal
#2337 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 11:21:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
By July-August we could be talking of an interim dividend, what this years loss will be hiding is the amount of organic growth & lessons the mngmnt have gone through...At 14.75 KK is cheaper than most firms at the NSE...An EPS of 2.50-2.75 for FY 2013 pushes the PE to 5.3-5.9 and a Gross DY of 8.4% assuming a DPS of 1.25...Eish the monkey should tank!
You mean a dividend for FY 2013? There will be no dividend for FY 2012. I think the DPS of 1.25 is too high even in 2013 but probably lower to shore up the cash position IF KK is still KK & not Puma ;-)

For FY 2013...to arrive at a DPS of 1.25 I assumed a 50% payout ratio on an EPS of 2.5 for FY 2013. ..I expect CAPEX over the next 2-3 years to be lower than the last to 3-5 years hence more dividends to shareholders.
omega
#2338 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 11:24:49 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/9/2009
Posts: 85
Total bid is zero with a supply of 960k @13.30.

I managed to sell only 12k @14.50. I was hoping to sell half of my KK portfolio. I'll be on the buy side if it goes below 12.
S.Mutaga III
#2339 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 11:49:27 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/26/2012
Posts: 830
4 billion hedging loss,loss of market share to total,pullout of puma and cases with KPC...This counter is a risky buy above ksh 9...
A successful man is not he who gets the best, it is he who makes the best from what he gets.
VituVingiSana
#2340 Posted : Thursday, December 13, 2012 11:55:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,107
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
Maybe Segman is deliberately not making an official announcement so that the fall in the share price is managed and gives some guys a chance to exit at a higher price! smile
Huh? How? The buyers (unless they are 'desperate' to buy) can always wait it out. And would they not have exited much earlier BEFORE the sub-standard story?
Finally, Segman reports to the 'real' owners [the biwott & friends] who can't sell their 60% without the CMA breathing down their necks.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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