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directional forecast
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karasinga
#1151 Posted : Monday, May 01, 2017 8:45:44 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/26/2015
Posts: 1,147
karasinga wrote:
Waoh... loving this. 1123 post and 57 pages and going... and getting better. Surprisingly, > 2000 views from 21st April to today 24th 8am. 149,704.... tracking

We are just scratching the surface here. I'm taking us to a very special place.
Who is coming?

1 week later, over 6000 views.

We must first learn to walk before we run. best wishes
It's not over until I win
skype id: karasinga. email: kkarasinga@gmail.com
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, May 02, 2017 6:57 AM | Reason: Not specified
Spikes
#1152 Posted : Tuesday, May 02, 2017 10:36:33 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:

Also consider doing TA for ARM!!!

Hello Angelica _ann. Have a look at what I am seeing and my thought process on the chart. I concur with sparkly. Fundamental gurus are highly welcome to bring their side of the story.

hope this will help.
note: remember disclaimer
best wishes

think market marker and insiders have something here up their sleeves

due you do diligence and remember disclaimer
best wishes

A month later price action still stuck here. Dojis continue forming on the weekly and monthly chart. Accumulation?

Loaded some this week. Aggressive play. Think

Tough obstacle starts from 24 all the way to 30 handle. My expectation is the bear has overcooked the bad news so if FY comes out are burnt food the price will edge up! Any positive news will boost the resistance breakout.


Pray for positive FY news. If negative a new breakout south is most likely to demote your expectations.

@ spikes. You are right on that a false break out south is a possibility.Technically, bulls have had a laboured move north which tells me bears are still present. But on "praying".... NO NO NO. We don't hope/pray in this business. It is either there are reasons to engage or not.
@ hisah. quoting Mark douglas
"You must learn to trust your edge. The edge means there is a higher probability of one outcome than another out of 100 trades. The greater your confidence, the easier it will be to execute your trades"... you are doing well mate as long as you are following your trading plan. happy hunting

@karasinga, this is an aggressive play (risky). Not recommended as an investment move, but as a trading the news front running speculative move.

@spikes, NMG went to the pits as it crashed towards 70 handle. A nice risky play from that pit. I see the same with ARM since the bears have been struggling with lower lows since Feb. Waiting for that upside run smile

2 weeks later the news front running is playing out as expected as the first barrier at 24 handle is blown away. April 30th is almost here where is the FY news? I still expect bad news to be bought based on the monthly doji candles on the monthly chart which had the highest volume in a decade that appeared in February this year!


Let's wait and see if market makers wanna swim north against the current .
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, May 02, 2017 10:38 AM | Reason: Not specified
bartum
#1153 Posted : Tuesday, May 02, 2017 1:51:17 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
karasinga wrote:
SCOM:
not happy with what bulls have been able to achieve so far. (MHO as on 25th April 2017 at 2pm)

Firstly around 20.5. but can SCOM print 14.5 or lower? time will tell.

Where next? Is it 20.50
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bartum
#1154 Posted : Tuesday, May 02, 2017 1:54:18 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 8/11/2010
Posts: 1,011
Location: nairobi
karasinga wrote:
ARAP CHARLES wrote:
Pesa Nane wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
What happened technically to KCB today? was the biggest losser(-8.76%)! Will review later


pull back is imminent


@karasinga did you take note of the 'event'? KCB went Ex-Dividend (Div. was Ksh.3.00)


Mmmmmmh!!!
Announced a First & Final dividend of Kes.3.00 on 09-Mar-Feb-2017; Books Closure 24-Apr-2017. Payment 26-May-2017.

Horton wrote:

Ermmmm it went xd 😇

Look who are here...
Hello Horton, Pesa Nane and Charles's son. Welcome guys to directional forecast and thanks for your comments on KCB. It was not in my knowledge fundamentally what was happening but technically I expected a pullback. I think time has come for us to merge all aspects of analysis... all are important. Take an example of KENO and KNRE; fundamentally sound but due to how market moves, the charts have to achieve something. One may try to look for any other reason but this is what it is. Feel free to bring in the other part of the story. learning continues. best wishes

Is KENO headed 10
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hisah
#1155 Posted : Tuesday, May 02, 2017 3:13:15 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Spikes wrote:
hisah wrote:
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
karasinga wrote:
Angelica _ann wrote:

Also consider doing TA for ARM!!!

Hello Angelica _ann. Have a look at what I am seeing and my thought process on the chart. I concur with sparkly. Fundamental gurus are highly welcome to bring their side of the story.

hope this will help.
note: remember disclaimer
best wishes

think market marker and insiders have something here up their sleeves

due you do diligence and remember disclaimer
best wishes

A month later price action still stuck here. Dojis continue forming on the weekly and monthly chart. Accumulation?

Loaded some this week. Aggressive play. Think

Tough obstacle starts from 24 all the way to 30 handle. My expectation is the bear has overcooked the bad news so if FY comes out are burnt food the price will edge up! Any positive news will boost the resistance breakout.


Pray for positive FY news. If negative a new breakout south is most likely to demote your expectations.

@ spikes. You are right on that a false break out south is a possibility.Technically, bulls have had a laboured move north which tells me bears are still present. But on "praying".... NO NO NO. We don't hope/pray in this business. It is either there are reasons to engage or not.
@ hisah. quoting Mark douglas
"You must learn to trust your edge. The edge means there is a higher probability of one outcome than another out of 100 trades. The greater your confidence, the easier it will be to execute your trades"... you are doing well mate as long as you are following your trading plan. happy hunting

@karasinga, this is an aggressive play (risky). Not recommended as an investment move, but as a trading the news front running speculative move.

@spikes, NMG went to the pits as it crashed towards 70 handle. A nice risky play from that pit. I see the same with ARM since the bears have been struggling with lower lows since Feb. Waiting for that upside run smile

2 weeks later the news front running is playing out as expected as the first barrier at 24 handle is blown away. April 30th is almost here where is the FY news? I still expect bad news to be bought based on the monthly doji candles on the monthly chart which had the highest volume in a decade that appeared in February this year!


Let's wait and see if market makers wanna swim north against the current .

The news is out and Mr market has interesting price action. The huge gap down (on thin vol) still respected the 18 - 20 level where we got the huge vol spike in February. In a few weeks we will see if this is a shake test before 30 handle can be tested! I know this will fly against the FY news, but Mr market is one weird character smile
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, May 02, 2017 3:15 PM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#1156 Posted : Tuesday, May 02, 2017 4:57:30 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
karasinga wrote:
hisah wrote:
Waiting for the monthly close to review the trends.

Affirmative... Kindly post your reviews here. Would really appreciate.
happy hunting

@karasinga, all the banks except KCB have been unable to retrace prices above the pre rate cap shock level Think With this observation KCB and Coop are the only counters showing strength vs the bank bears - KCB being the stronger since it's trading exdiv. CFC vol spike at 58 handle last month finished off the lows with an interesting monthly pattern (bullish doji). This is a zone that got huge vol spike back in May 2013 which made price to rally to around 150 before the current bear struck.

Mpesa bank (SCOM) is spotting a morning star candle on the monthly, still bullish against the 16 handle pin bar low. A monthly close below 16 will mean the bears are regaining control.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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  | | Edit by user: Tuesday, May 02, 2017 4:58 PM | Reason: Not specified
Cornelius Vanderbilt
#1157 Posted : Wednesday, May 03, 2017 12:20:11 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 8/15/2015
Posts: 817
not trying to give false hopes here but i think the only way fr mumias price is up! hehhe!
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Ericsson
#1158 Posted : Wednesday, May 03, 2017 12:21:45 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,810
Location: NAIROBI
@Karasinga
where are the charts.
I see NMG has crossed the 100 mark and Pan Africa/Sanlam at 27.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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lochaz-index
#1159 Posted : Thursday, May 04, 2017 8:48:11 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
hisah wrote:
karasinga wrote:
hisah wrote:
Waiting for the monthly close to review the trends.

Affirmative... Kindly post your reviews here. Would really appreciate.
happy hunting

@karasinga, all the banks except KCB have been unable to retrace prices above the pre rate cap shock level Think With this observation KCB and Coop are the only counters showing strength vs the bank bears - KCB being the stronger since it's trading exdiv. CFC vol spike at 58 handle last month finished off the lows with an interesting monthly pattern (bullish doji). This is a zone that got huge vol spike back in May 2013 which made price to rally to around 150 before the current bear struck.

Mpesa bank (SCOM) is spotting a morning star candle on the monthly, still bullish against the 16 handle pin bar low. A monthly close below 16 will mean the bears are regaining control.

Interesting observations. I expect equity to miss previous Q1 numbers by quite a stretch. Coop is more of a defensive bank stock and should fare better than its peers. As for Kcb the jury is still out there - very curious this one.

The market has been on shallow retracements currently...waiting to see if it dips below 3000 by mid May to give the new found bulls something to ponder regarding the recent mini rally.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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  | | Edit by user: Thursday, May 04, 2017 8:51 AM | Reason: Not specified
hisah
#1160 Posted : Thursday, May 04, 2017 3:07:49 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
NMG vol spike after 100 handle psychological resistance is retested. Will the resistance hold Think
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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