Shaping up in an interesting way as per foreign bids since Sept. I still expect a shakeout as the year 2012 results are disclosed. If they manage to reduce the H1 loss by 40% then the shakeout phase will likely not occur.

PUMA must be scared stiff with the politiking going on

Total 21.5% KK 21.4% so I am not worried about 0.1% furthermore KK phased out Deal Poa so that means the 21.4% may be far more profitable

@guru, nothing to worry. Trust @VVS #KK phased out Deal Poa promotion so that means the 21.4% may be far more profitable

Here is something small i found:



Or this one!



so it mattered before but doesn't matter now that they have lost top spot!

This just a bump if anything things will be thicker the day KK will lose its overall REGIONAL market to Total or any other oil company for that matter. Yeah, I know a huge chunk of their profit comes from this market but u can thank God for the mngt diversifying & going the regional way!!!

I am a Buffetterian & I think KK has a solid management with a great track record (with bumps) but will come out ahead. In WB's words... if the NSE shut down for 10yrs, I would be a-OK. Since the NSE is 'open' I would accept 20 from Puma.

Meaning??? they will pull out or they will start strategizing on being the market leader ?....

There is 'core' market share & 'other' deals. Banks like core (cheaper) deposits vs wholesale/other (expensive) deposits.

Likewise, the K-Card has been adopted by many firms & individuals which makes many of them 'core' customers who still get 2/- per liter discount. The 'other' market will fill up where convenient.

A 'core' customer [K-Card] will plan his trip (or even drive) to a KK station. I do so to get my 2/- & it 'wastes' a few minutes vs paying cash.

An 'other' customer with whom I was on the road yesterday doesn't care. He pulled into a Total coz it was closer by 50 meters. To him there is no difference between Total & KK since he is paying cash & the same price.

The market share also includes deals to supply KenGen [Total has always been a major supplier to KenGen] for thermal generation since the rains are iffy. I do not have PIEA's detailed breakdown on the split between (competitive) thermal supplies, (low margin) jet fuel & diesel/petrol for cars.

What does Puma want? It wants KK for its regional reach (not just Kenya) since Puma is already in some of these markets. My interest would be to find out what is KK's volume sales in 2012 vs 2011 regionally. A smart OMC will sell where the margins are better (e.g. in UG instead of KE) just like many sugarcane farmers who sell the cane to the highest bidder!

KK does OTS imports & private imports. The private imports can be exported since there is no obligation to sell it locally. The OTS (as I understand it) has to be sold locally. Therefore, if KK can get a better price in UG, then exports it to UG. Note that KK has a major constraint of limited storage space so it has to select where the returns are better to maximize profits.

KK is no different from any other firm e.g. KQ, EABL, BAT which has to (& should) close unprofitable routes/brands where it cannot scale/ascend into profitability.

From Kestrel about Total:

"...sales volumes increasing 13.7% y/y to 779KMT. The increase in sales volume was mainly due to sales to other oil marketing companies
under the Open Tender Systems (OTS)."

"The company has won several contracts to supply the oil
industry with refined products under the OTS agreement."