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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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mlennyma wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:EABL is also on a free fall!!!!! I expect almost all stocks including kk to fall as holidays knock in until February and a slight pick up in March mixed with election fears  banks Q1 results will largely shape the nse in 2017 I like this bear. Very systematic. Eabl belonged to a small band of stocks that have weathered the bear so far. Equity and Kcb got downgraded in a huff. Eabl is the latest member to be tossed out of that party. Safcom, BAT and Jubilee are holding fort till their time in the cleaners arrives. Watching keenly to see if the 3,000 level will be broken before the year is out. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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lochaz-index wrote:mlennyma wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:EABL is also on a free fall!!!!! I expect almost all stocks including kk to fall as holidays knock in until February and a slight pick up in March mixed with election fears banks Q1 results will largely shape the nse in 2017 I like this bear. Very systematic. Eabl belonged to a small band of stocks that have weathered the bear so far. Equity and Kcb got downgraded in a huff. Eabl is the latest member to be tossed out of that party. Safcom, BAT and Jubilee are holding fort till their time in the cleaners arrives. Watching keenly to see if the 3,000 level will be broken before the year is out. The sooner the market resolves this consolidation between 3000 and 3300 the better. The market is taking too long to test 3500 which means a break below 3000 is now having more weight!!!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,703 Location: NAIROBI
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And with Form 1s reporting in January second week;December holidays guys will be looking for school fees Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,134 Location: Nairobi
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Ericsson wrote:And with Form 1s reporting in January second week;December holidays guys will be looking for school fees 1) This is an annual event so do these parents buy shares DURING the year which they sell off in Dec? 2) Wouldn't these shareholders have been cleaned out over the years? [The last mass market IPO was a while ago] *There were large Rights Issues but the participation of the masses in KQ, KenGen, etc was low. So, who is selling? Why? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:[quote=Ericsson]And with Form 1s reporting in January second week;December holidays guys will be looking for school fees 1) This is an annual event so do these parents buy shares DURING the year which they sell off in Dec? 2) Wouldn't these shareholders have been cleaned out over the years? [The last mass market IPO was a while ago] *There were large Rights Issues but the participation of the masses in KQ, KenGen, etc was low. So, who is selling? Why? foreigners are dominating activity and they don't pay fees "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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mlennyma wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:[quote=Ericsson]And with Form 1s reporting in January second week;December holidays guys will be looking for school fees 1) This is an annual event so do these parents buy shares DURING the year which they sell off in Dec? 2) Wouldn't these shareholders have been cleaned out over the years? [The last mass market IPO was a while ago] *There were large Rights Issues but the participation of the masses in KQ, KenGen, etc was low. So, who is selling? Why? foreigners are dominating activity and they don't pay fees Wait a minute! What fees are these that foreigners do not pay...please enlighten us (or at least me because honestly sijui).
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 2/7/2016 Posts: 79 Location: Home
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3195...and still bleeding. 9 counters gained today against many that lost. I think we are approaching rock bottom, but it sucks because this drop is due to the entire banking industry. I want to get discounts outside banking and insurance, but their prices are not falling. Hard to spot discounts outside banking, and I dont want uncertainties associated with that new caps law.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,703 Location: NAIROBI
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If safaricom goes below 19 the bear will be walking in town. December turning to be an interesting month Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mlennyma wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:EABL is also on a free fall!!!!! I expect almost all stocks including kk to fall as holidays knock in until February and a slight pick up in March mixed with election fears banks Q1 results will largely shape the nse in 2017 I like this bear. Very systematic. Eabl belonged to a small band of stocks that have weathered the bear so far. Equity and Kcb got downgraded in a huff. Eabl is the latest member to be tossed out of that party. Safcom, BAT and Jubilee are holding fort till their time in the cleaners arrives. Watching keenly to see if the 3,000 level will be broken before the year is out. The sooner the market resolves this consolidation between 3000 and 3300 the better. The market is taking too long to test 3500 which means a break below 3000 is now having more weight!!! Anything below 3000 will be a huge blow to the market psyche. Most likely it would take us to sub 2000 with safcom being the most active participant bar none. I do not think the banks have seen their worst yet. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/26/2012 Posts: 985 Location: Dar es salaam,Tanzania
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December DISCOUNTS
“The pessimist complains about the wind; the optimist expects it to change; the realist adjusts the sails.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,184 Location: nairobi
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Metasploit wrote:December DISCOUNTS the elephant is vomiting seriously "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mlennyma wrote:Metasploit wrote:December DISCOUNTS the elephant is vomiting seriously  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mlennyma wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:EABL is also on a free fall!!!!! I expect almost all stocks including kk to fall as holidays knock in until February and a slight pick up in March mixed with election fears banks Q1 results will largely shape the nse in 2017 I like this bear. Very systematic. Eabl belonged to a small band of stocks that have weathered the bear so far. Equity and Kcb got downgraded in a huff. Eabl is the latest member to be tossed out of that party. Safcom, BAT and Jubilee are holding fort till their time in the cleaners arrives. Watching keenly to see if the 3,000 level will be broken before the year is out. The sooner the market resolves this consolidation between 3000 and 3300 the better. The market is taking too long to test 3500 which means a break below 3000 is now having more weight!!! Anything below 3000 will be a huge blow to the market psyche. Most likely it would take us to sub 2000 with safcom being the most active participant bar none. I do not think the banks have seen their worst yet. The fed hike and subsequent hikes are going to cut the foreign funds flow into emerging markets. Only trumponomics fiscal stimulus remains as the saving grace...$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:hisah wrote:lochaz-index wrote:mlennyma wrote:Angelica _ann wrote:EABL is also on a free fall!!!!! I expect almost all stocks including kk to fall as holidays knock in until February and a slight pick up in March mixed with election fears banks Q1 results will largely shape the nse in 2017 I like this bear. Very systematic. Eabl belonged to a small band of stocks that have weathered the bear so far. Equity and Kcb got downgraded in a huff. Eabl is the latest member to be tossed out of that party. Safcom, BAT and Jubilee are holding fort till their time in the cleaners arrives. Watching keenly to see if the 3,000 level will be broken before the year is out. The sooner the market resolves this consolidation between 3000 and 3300 the better. The market is taking too long to test 3500 which means a break below 3000 is now having more weight!!! Anything below 3000 will be a huge blow to the market psyche. Most likely it would take us to sub 2000 with safcom being the most active participant bar none. I do not think the banks have seen their worst yet. The fed hike and subsequent hikes are going to cut the foreign funds flow into emerging markets. Only trumponomics fiscal stimulus remains as the saving grace... The NSE20, currently @3148 is sitting just a few points above the capping selloff low of 3116. 2011 bear run ended at 3070. Any dip below those two levels - in addition to losing the psychological 3000 mark - takes us back to 2009 metrics, a 7 year low. As for the banking sector the siege is yet to end. Apparently insurance companies are reducing their interest earning bank deposits in favor of buying govt securities in the post rate cap period. Tough balancing act for banks as they are caught between reducing costs of deposits or losing them all together. In 2015, total industry NPLs came in at 123b. The same figure stands at 213b as at October 2016! Nearly double the previous year's figure. Given that credit growth has shrunk to GFC levels, NPLs will bulge all the more especially from the re-fi clients. An aneamic economy in 2017 increases those figures and forces huge write-offs/LLPs. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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NSE20 closed @3129. 13 points above the year low @3116. The market is facing thin liquidity which may make the road slippery downwards, but not a good indicator of the direction. Sizable volume is required to validate further losses or a bounce. February is the month which will be the best indicator as volume checks in for better analysis. If NSE20 closes the year below 3000, that will be a strong warning that will confirm heavy losses will continue in 2017! The best scenario is the year close holds above 3116. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/13/2015 Posts: 1,597
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NSE20 closed @3104.95. The line @ 3116 has failed to hold. Retail investors feeling the heat of credit squeeze will take us below 3000 in the last 2 weeks of this year.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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Towards the end of last year, PPT made sure the market didn't close below the psychological 4000 mark. The market still tanked anyway -between now and then 1000 points have been wiped off - I don't think they are eager to have a go at it this time round. I think the lack of enmasse retail/wanjiku participation post GFC is acting as a catalyst to this prolonged bear. No massive sell-offs save for the occasional scares. Sure and steady bear as investors get torn apart bit by bit. Meanwhile, HF printed an 11 year low...you have to go back to 2005/pre-GFC to see such kind of prices. If that is any kind of indicator sub 2000 will be a reality. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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wukan wrote:NSE20 closed @3104.95. The line @ 3116 has failed to hold. Retail investors feeling the heat of credit squeeze will take us below 3000 in the last 2 weeks of this year. 34 points from the 2011 low 
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 3/15/2010 Posts: 391 Location: nairobie
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lochaz-index wrote:Towards the end of last year, PPT made sure the market didn't close below the psychological 4000 mark. The market still tanked anyway -between now and then 1000 points have been wiped off - I don't think they are eager to have a go at it this time round.
I think the lack of enmasse retail/wanjiku participation post GFC is acting as a catalyst to this prolonged bear. No massive sell-offs save for the occasional scares. Sure and steady bear as investors get torn apart bit by bit.
Meanwhile, HF printed an 11 year low...you have to go back to 2005/pre-GFC to see such kind of prices. If that is any kind of indicator sub 2000 will be a reality. The REAL BEAR is in town, my name is THE REAL BEAR
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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3084.48 yesterday 3084.16 today Clutching at straws here... PPT trying hard to ensure the index doesn't break below the 3000 mark. $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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