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Estimated 71 Billion Barrels...
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Mainat
#1111 Posted : Monday, December 15, 2014 7:54:56 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Whilst the production breakeven price is $50, I highly doubt that is the breakeven price once you factor capital costs. Why do I say this? both Tullow and Africa Oil have been facing down since January i.e. before the oil price collapsed and have been unable to raise capital. Reason?
The demand for oil is no longer $100, but something close to $70. That implies that your expected return is no longer $50 but more like $20.
Would be surprised if we get to sell any oil from Turkana by 2016 as earlier predicted.
Sehemu ndio nyumba
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mkonomtupu
#1112 Posted : Monday, December 15, 2014 1:27:27 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Mainat wrote:
Whilst the production breakeven price is $50, I highly doubt that is the breakeven price once you factor capital costs. Why do I say this? both Tullow and Africa Oil have been facing down since January i.e. before the oil price collapsed and have been unable to raise capital. Reason?
The demand for oil is no longer $100, but something close to $70. That implies that your expected return is no longer $50 but more like $20.
Would be surprised if we get to sell any oil from Turkana by 2016 as earlier predicted.


But you are forgetting that tullow and africaoil borrowed to fund the exploration in turkana field and GoK took on eurobonds in the hope of paying back when the oil from turkana kicks in 2017
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murchr
#1113 Posted : Monday, December 15, 2014 8:37:15 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Mainat wrote:
Whilst the production breakeven price is $50, I highly doubt that is the breakeven price once you factor capital costs. Why do I say this? both Tullow and Africa Oil have been facing down since January i.e. before the oil price collapsed and have been unable to raise capital. Reason?
The demand for oil is no longer $100, but something close to $70. That implies that your expected return is no longer $50 but more like $20.
Would be surprised if we get to sell any oil from Turkana by 2016 as earlier predicted.


Ditto, i'd be shocked too. Seems like the Saudis are hellbent at stopping all the exploration going on everywhere
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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littledove
#1114 Posted : Tuesday, December 16, 2014 8:55:18 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 7/1/2014
Posts: 927
Location: sky
murchr wrote:
Mainat wrote:
Whilst the production breakeven price is $50, I highly doubt that is the breakeven price once you factor capital costs. Why do I say this? both Tullow and Africa Oil have been facing down since January i.e. before the oil price collapsed and have been unable to raise capital. Reason?
The demand for oil is no longer $100, but something close to $70. That implies that your expected return is no longer $50 but more like $20.
Would be surprised if we get to sell any oil from Turkana by 2016 as earlier predicted.


Ditto, i'd be shocked too. Seems like the Saudis are hellbent at stopping all the exploration going on everywhere

http://nypost.com/2014/12/14/saudi-arabias-oil-war-against-iran-and-russia-2/
There are only two emotions in the stock market, fear and hope. The problem is, you hope when you should fear and fear when you should hope
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murchr
#1115 Posted : Friday, December 19, 2014 3:11:32 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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wanyee
#1116 Posted : Friday, December 26, 2014 6:52:08 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 7/17/2011
Posts: 627
Location: Mbui-Nzau, Kikumbulyu
Now crude oil at $50's this is headed to 30's
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sparkly
#1117 Posted : Friday, December 26, 2014 8:25:04 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
littledove wrote:
murchr wrote:
Mainat wrote:
Whilst the production breakeven price is $50, I highly doubt that is the breakeven price once you factor capital costs. Why do I say this? both Tullow and Africa Oil have been facing down since January i.e. before the oil price collapsed and have been unable to raise capital. Reason?
The demand for oil is no longer $100, but something close to $70. That implies that your expected return is no longer $50 but more like $20.
Would be surprised if we get to sell any oil from Turkana by 2016 as earlier predicted.


Ditto, i'd be shocked too. Seems like the Saudis are hellbent at stopping all the exploration going on everywhere

http://nypost.com/2014/12/14/saudi-arabias-oil-war-against-iran-and-russia-2/


The Saudis are fighting a proxy economic war for NATO. NATO wants to break Putin's back but the US does not want to be seen as acting against its own shale oil producers.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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murchr
#1118 Posted : Wednesday, March 11, 2015 11:41:43 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Business Daily wrote:
Tullow Oil said on Wednesday that it had found oil in two new wells in the South Lokichar Basin in Turkana.

An operations update by the UK explorer found that the Ngamia-7 appraisal well found 132 metres of oil net of costs of extraction (also called net oil pay) while the Ekales-2 appraisal well found net oil pay of between 50 and 70 metres.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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Boris Boyka
#1119 Posted : Wednesday, March 11, 2015 11:50:03 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/15/2013
Posts: 1,977
Location: Here
murchr wrote:
Business Daily wrote:
Tullow Oil said on Wednesday that it had found oil in two new wells in the South Lokichar Basin in Turkana.

An operations update by the UK explorer found that the Ngamia-7 appraisal well found 132 metres of oil net of costs of extraction (also called net oil pay) while the Ekales-2 appraisal well found net oil pay of between 50 and 70 metres.

Tullow is hogwash! it will discover and discover and diacover...but has not exported a single barrell. Foreigners know how to cheat black Africans.
Everybody STEALS, a THIEF is one who's CAUGHT stealing something of LITTLE VALUE. !!!
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murchr
#1120 Posted : Thursday, March 12, 2015 12:29:11 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Boris Boyka wrote:
murchr wrote:
Business Daily wrote:
Tullow Oil said on Wednesday that it had found oil in two new wells in the South Lokichar Basin in Turkana.

An operations update by the UK explorer found that the Ngamia-7 appraisal well found 132 metres of oil net of costs of extraction (also called net oil pay) while the Ekales-2 appraisal well found net oil pay of between 50 and 70 metres.

Tullow is hogwash! it will discover and discover and diacover...but has not exported a single barrell. Foreigners know how to cheat black Africans.


Where is the infrastructure? You have no roads leave alone the pipeline how do you expect them to export? FYI before they start pumping out oil, they have to know how big the resource is, is it worth the investment?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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