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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Well well this gal is beautiful indeed. But where many suitors are involved, there is a tendency of one getting tired and throwing in the towel Quote:In an exchange of letters between the two oil firms, Total, which jointly operates storage depots in Mombasa and Nairobi with KenolKobil, says it must be offered the first right to buy KenolKobil’s shares in the depots, or it will to go to court to stop the acquisition.
But KenolKobil dismisses Total’s claim to pre-emptive rights, on the grounds that it entered the joint projects through its subsidiary Kobil Petroleum. It argues that what is up for acquisition by Puma Energy is KenolKobil, not Kobil Petroleum. The EastAfrican The drama is getting better... Shakeouts then sizable gains. Dizzy volatility rides  Since that newspaper article was published on Sunday, the price has dipped... The script. VWAP open @15s and closes the week @14.15/-
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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hisah wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Well well this gal is beautiful indeed. But where many suitors are involved, there is a tendency of one getting tired and throwing in the towel Quote:In an exchange of letters between the two oil firms, Total, which jointly operates storage depots in Mombasa and Nairobi with KenolKobil, says it must be offered the first right to buy KenolKobil’s shares in the depots, or it will to go to court to stop the acquisition.
But KenolKobil dismisses Total’s claim to pre-emptive rights, on the grounds that it entered the joint projects through its subsidiary Kobil Petroleum. It argues that what is up for acquisition by Puma Energy is KenolKobil, not Kobil Petroleum. The EastAfrican The drama is getting better... Shakeouts then sizable gains. Dizzy volatility rides Since that newspaper article was published on Sunday, the price has dipped... The script. VWAP open @15s and closes the week @14.15/-
Only the strong will remain standing, i expect next week it will get kichapo cha mbwa from investors with wasiwasi then Segman will make another promising statement to cool the nerves and push the price up again.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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Jamani wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Well well this gal is beautiful indeed. But where many suitors are involved, there is a tendency of one getting tired and throwing in the towel Quote:In an exchange of letters between the two oil firms, Total, which jointly operates storage depots in Mombasa and Nairobi with KenolKobil, says it must be offered the first right to buy KenolKobil’s shares in the depots, or it will to go to court to stop the acquisition.
But KenolKobil dismisses Total’s claim to pre-emptive rights, on the grounds that it entered the joint projects through its subsidiary Kobil Petroleum. It argues that what is up for acquisition by Puma Energy is KenolKobil, not Kobil Petroleum. The EastAfrican The drama is getting better... Shakeouts then sizable gains. Dizzy volatility rides Since that newspaper article was published on Sunday, the price has dipped... The script. VWAP open @15s and closes the week @14.15/-
Only the strong will remain standing, i expect next week it will get kichapo cha mbwa from investors with wasiwasi then Segman will make another promising statement to cool the nerves and push the price up again. Ha ha. This one requires nerves of steel. And true segman tends to release to steady things again. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Aguytrying wrote:Jamani wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:murchr wrote:Well well this gal is beautiful indeed. But where many suitors are involved, there is a tendency of one getting tired and throwing in the towel Quote:In an exchange of letters between the two oil firms, Total, which jointly operates storage depots in Mombasa and Nairobi with KenolKobil, says it must be offered the first right to buy KenolKobil’s shares in the depots, or it will to go to court to stop the acquisition.
But KenolKobil dismisses Total’s claim to pre-emptive rights, on the grounds that it entered the joint projects through its subsidiary Kobil Petroleum. It argues that what is up for acquisition by Puma Energy is KenolKobil, not Kobil Petroleum. The EastAfrican The drama is getting better... Shakeouts then sizable gains. Dizzy volatility rides Since that newspaper article was published on Sunday, the price has dipped... The script. VWAP open @15s and closes the week @14.15/-
Only the strong will remain standing, i expect next week it will get kichapo cha mbwa from investors with wasiwasi then Segman will make another promising statement to cool the nerves and push the price up again. Ha ha. This one requires nerves of steel. And true segman tends to release to steady things again. As for the price dips, i can only say.....come baby come @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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I am waiting for KK to fall back to 13 which is my 'buy-in' price ;-) Let's hope Mr. Segman doesn't issue any 'positive' statements until I get my share ;-) Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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VituVingiSana wrote:I am waiting for KK to fall back to 13 which is my 'buy-in' price ;-) Let's hope Mr. Segman doesn't issue any 'positive' statements until I get my share ;-) @SufficientlyP
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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According to the last update link due diligence was completed in September. It must have been satisfactory otherwise they wouldn't be pursuing the damn court cases. That said, 13s and sub are a welcome time
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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mwekez@ji wrote:According to the last update link due diligence was completed in September. It must have been satisfactory otherwise they wouldn't be pursuing the damn court cases. That said, 13s and sub are a welcome time Let me quote (para[phrase) Warren Buffett: When you go to the supermarket, and there is a sale on the non-perishable items you need & buy regularly, you should not complain but take joy in buying today at a discount what was pricier last week. If possible, you should stock up. The same applies with shares that you like for the right reasons and there is no change in the circumstances. Buy at the lower price, what you would have paid more earlier. My Take: Let KK share prices fall  since I believe nothing has changed for KK since September. The only negative announcement would be Puma withdraws the offer. That means the 3 cases have no locus standi. KK management gets back to business & can negotiate a JV with Puma that still benefits KK by sharing facilities, knowledge, products, etc. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:The only negative announcement would be Puma withdraws the offer. KK management gets back to business & can negotiate a JV with Puma that still benefits KK by sharing facilities, knowledge, products, etc. What happens to the tiny/negative margins that are being caused by price controls, volatile exchange rates, high oil prices & balooning finance costs?! I doubt any JV with Puma can solve the above issues.. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:The only negative announcement would be Puma withdraws the offer. KK management gets back to business & can negotiate a JV with Puma that still benefits KK by sharing facilities, knowledge, products, etc. What happens to the tiny/negative margins that are being caused by price controls, volatile exchange rates, high oil prices & balooning finance costs?! I doubt any JV with Puma can solve the above issues.. True. No stress. I am a Warren Buffett fan. I try to ask myself questions he asks: 1) Is the industry 'good' [sustainable]? Yes. We need fuel (petroleum) no matter what until someone discovers an alternate. 2) Is the management great? Yes. There are always a few hiccups but over 10 years I have followed KK, A+ management. 3) Is the price 'cheap, rich or fair'? It is 'fair' at 14 but gets 'cheap' below 13. 4) Does it have a moat? Yes, it has the stations to push product through plus good real estate [I noticed that KK is adding buildings, etc to the various locations where there is 'extra' land]. Ethiopia is untapped. Huge real estate play. Another 'moat' is K-Card. It has made 'believers' of many customers! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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@guru - There are negatives as you mentioned [every industry, sector or firm faces all or most]: 1) price controls - Populism but the same could happen to banks [muthuto, midiwo] or to food [when millers were being squeezed], farmers, etc. Ultimately, they fail. 2) volatile exchange rates - Failure of the country's management of the Current Account. Most industries including banks, millers, importer, etc can suffer if they bet wrong. Note that interest rates rose to 'drop' the USD from 107 to 84. Some say that some 'connected' banks made billions but that is nothing but cronyism. 3) high oil prices - KK has no control but they can & do pass on the cost. We will not stop using fuel (from petroleum) in the near future. The entire country suffers. KQ, car sales plunge, food prices rise, holidays, electricity cost more, etc. If worldwide demand crashes, the price will drop. 4) ballooning finance costs - A function of the economy's mismanagement. They can control it by reducing borrowings. Banks don't like high interest rates = increases defaults. There is an interesting trend when price controls are used where margins get squeezed. The small or informal players gets squeezed out. This ironically defeats the purpose of price controls as it gives 'oligarchy' status to the ones who can ride it out. If you observe the market share of KK & Total have been steadily growing. There are advantages of being in an oligopoly. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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VituVingiSana wrote:mwekez@ji wrote:According to the last update link due diligence was completed in September. It must have been satisfactory otherwise they wouldn't be pursuing the damn court cases. That said, 13s and sub are a welcome time Let me quote (para[phrase) Warren Buffett: When you go to the supermarket, and there is a sale on the non-perishable items you need & buy regularly, you should not complain but take joy in buying today at a discount what was pricier last week. If possible, you should stock up. The same applies with shares that you like for the right reasons and there is no change in the circumstances. Buy at the lower price, what you would have paid more earlier. My Take: Let KK share prices fall since I believe nothing has changed for KK since September. The only negative announcement would be Puma withdraws the offer. That means the 3 cases have no locus standi. KK management gets back to business & can negotiate a JV with Puma that still benefits KK by sharing facilities, knowledge, products, etc. i cant agree more. This is a buyers market Sellers market will come
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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the rising oil prices are bad for inflation etc. but for Kk. it means more profits. expect a better Q2 The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:the rising oil prices are bad for inflation etc. but for Kk. it means more profits. expect a better Q2 Rising oil prices is NOT good for KK. The margins set by ERC are in absolute KES not in %. So KK makes 3/- whole sale when prices are 70, 80 or 120. The % profit drops as prices rise. Also higher prices means increased theft & fraud by attendants, dealers & customers while reducing demand for fuel as 'unnecessary' trips are cut back. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:the rising oil prices are bad for inflation etc. but for Kk. it means more profits. expect a better Q2 Rising oil prices is NOT good for KK. The margins set by ERC are in absolute KES not in %. So KK makes 3/- whole sale when prices are 70, 80 or 120. The % profit drops as prices rise. Also higher prices means increased theft & fraud by attendants, dealers & customers while reducing demand for fuel as 'unnecessary' trips are cut back. thanks for info. what about the ability to sell earlier stocks bought at lower price at the new high price The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/23/2010 Posts: 868 Location: La Islas Galápagos
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VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:the rising oil prices are bad for inflation etc. but for Kk. it means more profits. expect a better Q2 Rising oil prices is NOT good for KK. The margins set by ERC are in absolute KES not in %. So KK makes 3/- whole sale when prices are 70, 80 or 120. The % profit drops as prices rise. Also higher prices means increased theft & fraud by attendants, dealers & customers while reducing demand for fuel as 'unnecessary' trips are cut back. @aguy, oil retailers lose money when crude prices go up. A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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Aguytrying wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Aguytrying wrote:the rising oil prices are bad for inflation etc. but for Kk. it means more profits. expect a better Q2 Rising oil prices is NOT good for KK. The margins set by ERC are in absolute KES not in %. So KK makes 3/- whole sale when prices are 70, 80 or 120. The % profit drops as prices rise. Also higher prices means increased theft & fraud by attendants, dealers & customers while reducing demand for fuel as 'unnecessary' trips are cut back. thanks for info. what about the ability to sell earlier stocks bought at lower price at the new high price Yes. Though that is for only a part of the earlier shipment. I am looking at the larger picture for consumption throughout the year. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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VWAP @14/- with a today's low @13.85. Waiting to see the test of 13.50/- to determine if KK is going to be a buyers market, meaning more selling bout... $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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hisah wrote:VWAP @14/- with a today's low @13.85. Waiting to see the test of 13.50/- to determine if KK is going to be a buyers market, meaning more selling bout... Fall, fall, fall, fall Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2010 Posts: 2,221 Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
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Getting juicier by the day! @SufficientlyP
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