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Kengen success
wukan
#201 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2016 4:11:51 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,590
sparkly wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Share price bouncing back.
It was going to be hard for the counter to go below the rights issue price.


PPT actionPray The only thing to buy in kengen is the cashflow. I want to see the IM to determine the cash flow per share. I think the cash flow per share will be less than the offer price of 6.55/=. 70:30 debt:equity is crazy considering the strengthening yen


This has been discussed and settled. Kengen recovers Forex losses from KPLC


True but that does not eliminate liquidity risk and the single buyer model risk. Their liquidity is not impressive. You are better off lending to kengen than being an equity holder.
sparkly
#202 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2016 8:10:38 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
wukan wrote:
sparkly wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Share price bouncing back.
It was going to be hard for the counter to go below the rights issue price.


PPT actionPray The only thing to buy in kengen is the cashflow. I want to see the IM to determine the cash flow per share. I think the cash flow per share will be less than the offer price of 6.55/=. 70:30 debt:equity is crazy considering the strengthening yen


This has been discussed and settled. Kengen recovers Forex losses from KPLC


True but that does not eliminate liquidity risk and the single buyer model risk. Their liquidity is not impressive. You are better off lending to kengen than being an equity holder.


You are using very big words my bro/sis. Please explain what you mean by liquidity risk. Do you mean that Kengen will not be able to meet financial obligations when due? Is this assertion supported by an adverse cash flow statement?

Single buyer model risk - I assume you mean that Kengen sells to KP only. Would you rather Kengen start distributing its own power?
Life is short. Live passionately.
murchr
#203 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2016 8:51:31 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
sparkly wrote:
wukan wrote:
sparkly wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Share price bouncing back.
It was going to be hard for the counter to go below the rights issue price.


PPT actionPray The only thing to buy in kengen is the cashflow. I want to see the IM to determine the cash flow per share. I think the cash flow per share will be less than the offer price of 6.55/=. 70:30 debt:equity is crazy considering the strengthening yen


This has been discussed and settled. Kengen recovers Forex losses from KPLC


True but that does not eliminate liquidity risk and the single buyer model risk. Their liquidity is not impressive. You are better off lending to kengen than being an equity holder.


You are using very big words my bro/sis. Please explain what you mean by liquidity risk. Do you mean that Kengen will not be able to meet financial obligations when due? Is this assertion supported by an adverse cash flow statement?

Single buyer model risk - I assume you mean that Kengen sells to KP only. Would you rather Kengen start distributing its own power?


So many ppl dont understand the partnership btn KEGN and KPLC. KPLC will buy KEGNs power at all times. Its work is to generate. How it will get to KPLC is the responsibility of a govt institution called KETRACCO. Any losses incurred in transmission is not KEGNs problem. Any losses incurred while distributing power is KPLCs loss, any forex losses are incurred by KPLC who in the end passes the loss to Wanjiku. So KEGNs income is almost certain. Am I not getting something on this liquidity issue? If you have a guaranteed customer, whats the risk?
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
nashx
#204 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2016 8:58:44 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
I agree with @murchr and @sparkly above and yes most people don't seem to understand how this firm works. See the below link on how Kengen operates, how it makes it money, it's future plans, MDs commentary on the share price, rights etc and other queries discussed in this thread under the links below
Offering my personal finance knowledge for free
nashx
#205 Posted : Wednesday, May 11, 2016 9:01:28 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/28/2014
Posts: 188
Location: Nairobi
Cornelius Vanderbilt
#206 Posted : Friday, May 13, 2016 6:22:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/15/2015
Posts: 817
ati how many birrions do they want !ehhhh! ambitions nazo
kawi254
#207 Posted : Friday, May 13, 2016 11:28:28 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2015
Posts: 467
Location: Nairobi
Cornelius Vanderbilt wrote:
ati how many birrions do they want !ehhhh! ambitions nazo


Kengen is only raising (0.3*28.8) 8.64 Billion from the market.
Ebenyo
#208 Posted : Friday, May 13, 2016 3:33:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
Kengen Debt to equity ratio is currently at.79% which is high.Thats why the stock has been very volatile since listing in 2006.Return to equity is low at 8.1%But the dividend yield is ipressive at 8%.The beneficiaries pf this stock are speculators and short term investors
sparkly wrote:
wukan wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Share price bouncing back.
It was going to be hard for the counter to go below the rights issue price.


PPT actionPray The only thing to buy in kengen is the cashflow. I want to see the IM to determine the cash flow per share. I think the cash flow per share will be less than the offer price of 6.55/=. 70:30 debt:equity is crazy considering the strengthening yen


This has been discussed and settled. Kengen recovers Forex losses from KPLC


True but that does not eliminate liquidity risk and the single buyer model risk. Their liquidity is not impressive. You are better off lending to kengen than being an equity holder.[/quote]

You are using very big words my bro/sis. Please explain what you mean by liquidity risk. Do you mean that Kengen will not be able to meet financial obligations when due? Is this assertion supported by an adverse cash flow statement?

Single buyer model risk - I assume you mean that Kengen sells to KP only. Would you rather Kengen start distributing its own power?
[/quote]

So many ppl dont understand the partnership btn KEGN and KPLC. KPLC will buy KEGNs power at all times. Its work is to generate. How it will get to KPLC is the responsibility of a govt institution called KETRACCO. Any losses incurred in transmission is not KEGNs problem. Any losses incurred while distributing power is KPLCs loss, any forex losses are incurred by KPLC who in the end passes the loss to Wanjiku. So KEGNs income is almost certain. Am I not getting something on this liquidity issue? If you have a guaranteed customer, whats the risk?
[/quote]
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Ebenyo
#209 Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2016 8:55:41 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
The dividend yield is attractive.Very volatile due to high debt to equity ratio.Low return on equity because of the same.Very good for long term investors.But I hope these guys did not cook books like nbk and chasebank.From a Net profit of 2billion in 2014 to 11 billion in 2015? or was it whipping investors into the rights issue? fattening the cow before slaughter?
Towards the goal of financial freedom
PKoli
#210 Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2016 9:25:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
Ebenyo wrote:
The dividend yield is attractive.Very volatile due to high debt to equity ratio.Low return on equity because of the same.Very good for long term investors.But I hope these guys did not cook books like nbk and chasebank.From a Net profit of 2billion in 2014 to 11 billion in 2015? or was it whipping investors into the rights issue? fattening the cow before slaughter?


Forward P/E doesn't look attractive. The massive dilution due to number of shares. I like the governance of KenGen and feel it's a good stock for long term investment
citymayor
#211 Posted : Sunday, May 15, 2016 11:08:41 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/15/2012
Posts: 29
Location: unimportant
PKoli wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
The dividend yield is attractive.Very volatile due to high debt to equity ratio.Low return on equity because of the same.Very good for long term investors.But I hope these guys did not cook books like nbk and chasebank.From a Net profit of 2billion in 2014 to 11 billion in 2015? or was it whipping investors into the rights issue? fattening the cow before slaughter?


Forward P/E doesn't look attractive. The massive dilution due to number of shares. I like the governance of KenGen and feel it's a good stock for long term investment

Come Monday 16th May 3:00pm any investor holding Kengen is better off defending their rights to the fullest to avoid the massive dilution
The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
Ebenyo
#212 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2016 6:25:07 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 1,997
Location: Kitale
@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price?
Towards the goal of financial freedom
Spikes
#213 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2016 7:58:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/20/2015
Posts: 2,811
Location: Mombasa
Ebenyo wrote:
@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price?


It will be completely drowned by over dilution to below rights price. Once the cow is fat and slaughtered, who cares?
John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
enyands
#214 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2016 8:07:45 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/25/2014
Posts: 2,300
Location: kenya
Spikes wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price?


It will be completely drowned by over dilution to below rights price. Once the cow is fat and slaughtered, who cares?


@spikes let's be positive please. Shame on you
sparkly
#215 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2016 8:08:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
Ebenyo wrote:
@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price?


Kengen trades at 1/10th of the shareholders equity. What lower price cam you surely expect? Good opportunities are lost when investors try to bottom pick stocks.
Life is short. Live passionately.
Ericsson
#216 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2016 9:27:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
After the rights issue KENGEN will now start its real price discovery after trading below it for about 5 years when plans of the current rights issue were announced.









Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
mthaka
#217 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2016 10:09:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/30/2013
Posts: 254
Ericsson wrote:
After the rights issue KENGEN will now start its real price discovery after trading below it for about 5 years when plans of the current rights issue were announced.

@Erikson you are very right the price will raise to about ksh 11,you are indeed very right








moneydust
#218 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2016 11:56:53 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 303
Spikes wrote:
Ebenyo wrote:
@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price?


It will be completely drowned by over dilution to below rights price. Once the cow is fat and slaughtered, who cares?


Fear mongering...we will wait and see
Ericsson
#219 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2016 4:02:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,684
Location: NAIROBI
Let's see how the counter behaves tomorrow ex-rights
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
citymayor
#220 Posted : Monday, May 16, 2016 8:24:10 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/15/2012
Posts: 29
Location: unimportant
Ebenyo wrote:
@city mayor,i want to enter at a very low price due to its volatile nature.To hold it for long term.Is there chance that it will trade below the rights issue price?


@Ebenyo based on the tripling of share capital through the rights issue, you can basically divide FY 2016 expected earning by 3 to see what worth you will be having for a single share depending on what price you decide to get in. The golden rule is to trigger fundamentally and enter or exit technically. My math is abit rusty and I welcome any criticism from the community. Assuming a generous expected FY2016 EPS of 7.20 based on the HY 2015 EPS of 2.58, this would translate to an EPS of 2.40 after factoring in the rights shares, or a 54% drop in EPS yoy. The question you should ask yourself is how much you are will to pay for that amount of earning which many investors would differ broadly based on what we call the PE ratio. It is currently trading at a trailing PE of 1.35
The Emotional Dog and Its Rational Tail
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