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USD/KES $ at 95
kizee1
#101 Posted : Monday, June 22, 2015 11:55:17 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 9/29/2010
Posts: 679
Location: nairobi
Angelica _ann wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Shilling-weakens-on-energy-sector-dollar-demand/-/539552/2760972/-/5kiiti/-/index.html

Looks like the 100 mark is inevitable. It might coincide with kq announcing a record loss for a listed nse stock.


Cbk will continue selling dollars to contain the slide!!!


how effective have their sales been so far? we are now a shilling and change away from 100
hisah
#102 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 3:37:48 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
Angelica _ann wrote:
lochaz-index wrote:
http://www.businessdailyafrica.com/Shilling-weakens-on-energy-sector-dollar-demand/-/539552/2760972/-/5kiiti/-/index.html

Looks like the 100 mark is inevitable. It might coincide with kq announcing a record loss for a listed nse stock.


Cbk will continue selling dollars to contain the slide!!!

Strong KES backed by CB selling USD instead of a healthy econ? Upside down economics!? KE should study Ghana lest it lands in that boat.

What happens when Greece defaults on IMF on June 30th?
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Mainat
#103 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 6:24:26 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
You can take this to ze bank, Grexit ain't going to happen on 30th June. The Greeks no its better inside the EU than out there facing proper market pain.
Who will provide their banks liquidity or even cushion money when they get thrown out of the debt markets which Grexit will lead to?
Sehemu ndio nyumba
muganda
#104 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 10:29:59 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,907
Mainat wrote:
You can take this to ze bank, Grexit ain't going to happen on 30th June. The Greeks no its better inside the EU than out there facing proper market pain.
Who will provide their banks liquidity or even cushion money when they get thrown out of the debt markets which Grexit will lead to?


If a man had the guts to play your forecast, really make a decisive move, he would be in the money. But alas, where art thou brave knight?
mazingira
#105 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 11:23:01 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/26/2012
Posts: 136
1.00 USD = 98.7246 KES

The Greeks are sorting themselves out , the Americans are at record employment. Their economies will grow further and so will Europe as the cost of logistics and energy reduce.

In Kenya we have the opposite , the balance of payments in in a huge defeceit as we are a BIG importer and low value exporter . The government just taxed us more on fuel the dollar is going to touch 100/- no doubt there.

We are in a system where the government needs to borrow every year more and more , they are strangling liquidity people cannot pay debts. Expenses are on the rise, their is money flight from the markets

bad news all round
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic
#106 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 11:43:01 AM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 9/23/2010
Posts: 2,225
Location: Sundowner,Amboseli
mazingira wrote:
1.00 USD = 98.7246 KES

The Greeks are sorting themselves out , the Americans are at record employment. Their economies will grow further and so will Europe as the cost of logistics and energy reduce.

In Kenya we have the opposite , the balance of payments in in a huge defeceit as we are a BIG importer and low value exporter . The government just taxed us more on fuel the dollar is going to touch 100/- no doubt there.

We are in a system where the government needs to borrow every year more and more , they are strangling liquidity people cannot pay debts. Expenses are on the rise, their is money flight from the markets

bad news all round

I just think that was a very dumb move by GoK signalling higher inflation, weaker KES, higher yields.
Now MPC will have to raise the cbr by a further 300bps or so to tame the USD bulls....well at the expense of the economy/NSE. The crowding out effect is underway.
#PainInThePocket
@SufficientlyP
lochaz-index
#107 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 2:39:46 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mazingira wrote:
1.00 USD = 98.7246 KES

The Greeks are sorting themselves out , the Americans are at record employment. Their economies will grow further and so will Europe as the cost of logistics and energy reduce.

In Kenya we have the opposite , the balance of payments in in a huge defeceit as we are a BIG importer and low value exporter . The government just taxed us more on fuel the dollar is going to touch 100/- no doubt there.

We are in a system where the government needs to borrow every year more and more , they are strangling liquidity people cannot pay debts. Expenses are on the rise, their is money flight from the markets

bad news all round

I just think that was a very dumb move by GoK signalling higher inflation, weaker KES, higher yields.
Now MPC will have to raise the cbr by a further 300bps or so to tame the USD bulls....well at the expense of the economy/NSE. The crowding out effect is underway.
#PainInThePocket


Cbk guys have only one trump card in the name of the IMF loan, once they have played that card(which should be soon)then the slide of the KES is going to be spectacular.The drop could occur as cost push inflation caused by the fuel levy and poor crop harvests kicks in.Mopping of liquidity and hiking of the CBR can only achieve short term results.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
mazingira
#108 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 3:40:50 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 10/26/2012
Posts: 136
lochaz-index wrote:
Sufficiently Philanga....thropic wrote:
mazingira wrote:
1.00 USD = 98.7246 KES

The Greeks are sorting themselves out , the Americans are at record employment. Their economies will grow further and so will Europe as the cost of logistics and energy reduce.

In Kenya we have the opposite , the balance of payments in in a huge defeceit as we are a BIG importer and low value exporter . The government just taxed us more on fuel the dollar is going to touch 100/- no doubt there.

We are in a system where the government needs to borrow every year more and more , they are strangling liquidity people cannot pay debts. Expenses are on the rise, their is money flight from the markets

bad news all round

I just think that was a very dumb move by GoK signalling higher inflation, weaker KES, higher yields.
Now MPC will have to raise the cbr by a further 300bps or so to tame the USD bulls....well at the expense of the economy/NSE. The crowding out effect is underway.
#PainInThePocket


Cbk guys have only one trump card in the name of the IMF loan, once they have played that card(which should be soon)then the slide of the KES is going to be spectacular.The drop could occur as cost push inflation caused by the fuel levy and poor crop harvests kicks in.Mopping of liquidity and hiking of the CBR can only achieve short term results.



Question when the IMF lends Kenya this cash , im sure there is interest and we have to repay , don't we ? Doesn't this in turn mean even more money leaving Kenya? How heavily is the GOK locally , the monetary policy of mopping up cash is going to hurt businesses only people with overly large fixed deposits of 250mn plus love it when interest rates are hiked as they cash in like one arm bandit paying out a jackpot. Even this is unsustainable because Kenyans cant afford to borrow at excessively high rate , defaulting increases banks under pressure tighten their belts. Economic growth potential shrinks , government comes under pressure to raise money for running country . Vicious circle. what i agree with i seea very weak KES in the near future and dire times for businesses
Ericsson
#109 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 3:48:22 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,815
Location: NAIROBI
The problem is low exports low exports and low exports which we need to boost to get additional forex.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
murchr
#110 Posted : Tuesday, June 23, 2015 8:35:12 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Ericsson wrote:
The problem is low exports low exports and low exports which we need to boost to get additional forex.


And heavy imports...to the extend of importing toothpicks. We are buying the dollar so that we can go buy toothpicks from China. Unless that is resolved,....we will see 110/- soon and very soon. No one is stopping the dollar from strengthening not unless there's another major calamity.

We either start pumping out that oil or reduce what we're importing. These other simple cosmetics will not work, infact CBK should let it be
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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