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Too many HELLOS, Time to quit stocks!
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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Runner wrote:sparkly wrote:1 January 2016 time to review the thread.
In January 2014, I po predicted that 2014 would be the last good year for stocks.
Advised people to sell before the year 2015, which would be a negative return year for stocks.
Advised people to stay liquid or invest their money elsewhere.
As expected, doubting Thomases were sceptical. The believers believed.
What happened in 2015:
1. NSE Index tanked below 4000.
2. KES/USD shot to 107
3. Poor corporate earnings. 17? profit warnings.
4. T-bills returned as much as 24% at some point.
Bottom line - 2014/5 was time to sell stocks, and be invested in cash/cash equivalents.
The prophesy unravelled right in front of our eyes. What is the prediction for 2016? No respite! http://www.businessdaily...12/-/iclvlq/-/index.html The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/16/2014 Posts: 1,420 Location: Bohemian Grove
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Runner wrote:sparkly wrote:1 January 2016 time to review the thread.
In January 2014, I po predicted that 2014 would be the last good year for stocks.
Advised people to sell before the year 2015, which would be a negative return year for stocks.
Advised people to stay liquid or invest their money elsewhere.
As expected, doubting Thomases were sceptical. The believers believed.
What happened in 2015:
1. NSE Index tanked below 4000.
2. KES/USD shot to 107
3. Poor corporate earnings. 17? profit warnings.
4. T-bills returned as much as 24% at some point.
Bottom line - 2014/5 was time to sell stocks, and be invested in cash/cash equivalents.
The prophesy unravelled right in front of our eyes. What is the prediction for 2016? With a record profit warnings, it will take nothing short of a miracle for the index to move up.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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PREDICTIONS FOR 2016- Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down. 2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility. Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread"). If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros: 1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017. 2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017. 3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016. 4.Centum - 80 by December 2016. 5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:PREDICTIONS FOR 2016-
Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down.
2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility.
Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread").
If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros:
1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017.
2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017.
3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016.
4.Centum - 80 by December 2016.
5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016.
I am not so sure about KenGen. Too many shares, a potential 'failed' Rights & Scams, Inc. Centum will also face headwinds in a high interest rate environment & a weak KES. I'd love to see TPS and KenRe pop as you say. I am ambivalent on HFCK coz I am not a shareholder. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:PREDICTIONS FOR 2016-
Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down.
2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility.
Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread").
If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros:
1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017.
2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017.
3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016.
4.Centum - 80 by December 2016.
5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016.
I am not so sure about KenGen. Too many shares, a potential 'failed' Rights & Scams, Inc. GOK already taking up 70% by conversion, no failure.Centum will also face headwinds in a high interest rate environment & a weak KES. I'd love to see TPS and KenRe pop as you say. I am ambivalent on HFCK coz I am not a shareholder. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:PREDICTIONS FOR 2016-
Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down.
2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility.
Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread").
If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros:
1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017.
2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017.
3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016.
4.Centum - 80 by December 2016.
5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016.
I am not so sure about KenGen. Too many shares, a potential 'failed' Rights & Scams, Inc. Centum will also face headwinds in a high interest rate environment & a weak KES. I'd love to see TPS and KenRe pop as you say. I am ambivalent on HFCK coz I am not a shareholder. Agreed. In hfck 50.00 would imply a very high pe, remember rights dilution. That can only materialise in a proper bull run The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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I think the market will be relatively flat in 2016 +-10% range and it will be time to plant The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:PREDICTIONS FOR 2016-
Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down.
2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility.
Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread").
If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros:
1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017.
2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017.
3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016.
4.Centum - 80 by December 2016.
5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016.
I am not so sure about KenGen. Too many shares, a potential 'failed' Rights & Scams, Inc. GOK already taking up 70% by conversion, no failure.Centum will also face headwinds in a high interest rate environment & a weak KES. I'd love to see TPS and KenRe pop as you say. I am ambivalent on HFCK coz I am not a shareholder. That's like saying KQ had a successful Rights Issue. Good luck. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:PREDICTIONS FOR 2016-
Stock market will be range bound. Prices will go up, prices will go down.
2016 will be a traders market due to the volatility.
Fundamental investors, hold on to your positions, provided the positions are solid (refer to the "2 stocks for life thread").
If you are new in the game, buy these shares to beat the pros:
1. TPS Serena- Target 45 by June 2017.
2. Housing Finance - 50 by March 2017.
3. Kengen - 15 ex-rights equivalent by December 2016.
4.Centum - 80 by December 2016.
5. Kenya Re - 35 by September 2016.
I am not so sure about KenGen. Too many shares, a potential 'failed' Rights & Scams, Inc. GOK already taking up 70% by conversion, no failure.Centum will also face headwinds in a high interest rate environment & a weak KES. I'd love to see TPS and KenRe pop as you say. I am ambivalent on HFCK coz I am not a shareholder. That's like saying KQ had a successful Rights Issue. Good luck. Are we discussing Kengen or KQ? Focus @VVS Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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sparkly wrote:Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. This time the buying has to be done in a picky way unlike 2011. The selling has not been exhaustive as in ulcers capitulation like back in 2008 and 2011.
Globally the markets are yet to set in a major low. Doesn't feel like a bottom yet!$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/20/2015 Posts: 2,811 Location: Mombasa
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hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. This time the buying has to be done in a picky way unlike 2011. The selling has not been exhaustive as in ulcers capitulation like back in 2008 and 2011.
Globally the markets are yet to set in a major low. Doesn't feel like a bottom yet! I agree with you. When we exhaust a mini rally coming soon between now and next month I'll hold cash and wait for deepest slide to load and wait a full swing returns. John 5:17 But Jesus replied, “My Father is always working, and so am I.”
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. This time the buying has to be done in a picky way unlike 2011. The selling has not been exhaustive as in ulcers capitulation like back in 2008 and 2011.
Globally the markets are yet to set in a major low. Doesn't feel like a bottom yet! @sparkly and @hisa what's the picky blue chips you have in mind. You don't have to be detailed. Eg karaya,sufuria,kijiko.avoid sahani, bakuli na uma. That's just example 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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enyands wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. This time the buying has to be done in a picky way unlike 2011. The selling has not been exhaustive as in ulcers capitulation like back in 2008 and 2011.
Globally the markets are yet to set in a major low. Doesn't feel like a bottom yet! @sparkly and @hisa what's the picky blue chips you have in mind. You don't have to be detailed. Eg karaya,sufuria,kijiko.avoid sahani, bakuli na uma. That's just example I mentioned bamburi sometime back. It held well in 2015 and still continues to hold in 2016. I'm waiting for the financials (banks and insurance) to publish their FY results. Also how Q1 ends determines a lot on how the year will pan out. For Q1 readings I usually check the entire global spectrum so it takes a while to crunch those numbers The next window is Q2 coz of Mpesa bank. This is what will likely decide direction for NSE. Don't be in a rush to lose your money! Tbills/bonds are still paying descent returns.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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hisah wrote:enyands wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. This time the buying has to be done in a picky way unlike 2011. The selling has not been exhaustive as in ulcers capitulation like back in 2008 and 2011.
Globally the markets are yet to set in a major low. Doesn't feel like a bottom yet! @sparkly and @hisa what's the picky blue chips you have in mind. You don't have to be detailed. Eg karaya,sufuria,kijiko.avoid sahani, bakuli na uma. That's just example I mentioned bamburi sometime back. It held well in 2015 and still continues to hold in 2016. I'm waiting for the financials (banks and insurance) to publish their FY results. Also how Q1 ends determines a lot on how the year will pan out. For Q1 readings I usually check the entire global spectrum so it takes a while to crunch those numbers The next window is Q2 coz of Mpesa bank. This is what will likely decide direction for NSE. Don't be in a rush to lose your money! Tbills/bonds are still paying descent returns.
So bamburi it is for now and waiting for simba and member? Is that correct
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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enyands wrote:hisah wrote:enyands wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. This time the buying has to be done in a picky way unlike 2011. The selling has not been exhaustive as in ulcers capitulation like back in 2008 and 2011.
Globally the markets are yet to set in a major low. Doesn't feel like a bottom yet! @sparkly and @hisa what's the picky blue chips you have in mind. You don't have to be detailed. Eg karaya,sufuria,kijiko.avoid sahani, bakuli na uma. That's just example I mentioned bamburi sometime back. It held well in 2015 and still continues to hold in 2016. I'm waiting for the financials (banks and insurance) to publish their FY results. Also how Q1 ends determines a lot on how the year will pan out. For Q1 readings I usually check the entire global spectrum so it takes a while to crunch those numbers The next window is Q2 coz of Mpesa bank. This is what will likely decide direction for NSE. Don't be in a rush to lose your money! Tbills/bonds are still paying descent returns.
So bamburi it is for now and waiting for simba and member? Is that correct For bamburi around 150 if it retraces. For banks i haven't decided yet though a bit biased towards kcb. Member is still in my golden handcuff list. Helios sold their gold. Who sells their gold unless it's not gold any more?$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/25/2014 Posts: 2,300 Location: kenya
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hisah wrote:enyands wrote:hisah wrote:enyands wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. This time the buying has to be done in a picky way unlike 2011. The selling has not been exhaustive as in ulcers capitulation like back in 2008 and 2011.
Globally the markets are yet to set in a major low. Doesn't feel like a bottom yet! @sparkly and @hisa what's the picky blue chips you have in mind. You don't have to be detailed. Eg karaya,sufuria,kijiko.avoid sahani, bakuli na uma. That's just example I mentioned bamburi sometime back. It held well in 2015 and still continues to hold in 2016. I'm waiting for the financials (banks and insurance) to publish their FY results. Also how Q1 ends determines a lot on how the year will pan out. For Q1 readings I usually check the entire global spectrum so it takes a while to crunch those numbers The next window is Q2 coz of Mpesa bank. This is what will likely decide direction for NSE. Don't be in a rush to lose your money! Tbills/bonds are still paying descent returns.
So bamburi it is for now and waiting for simba and member? Is that correct For bamburi around 150 if it retraces. For banks i haven't decided yet though a bit biased towards kcb. Member is still in my golden handcuff list. Helios sold their gold. Who sells their gold unless it's not gold any more? Namastę and thank you
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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enyands wrote:hisah wrote:enyands wrote:hisah wrote:enyands wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. This time the buying has to be done in a picky way unlike 2011. The selling has not been exhaustive as in ulcers capitulation like back in 2008 and 2011.
Globally the markets are yet to set in a major low. Doesn't feel like a bottom yet! @sparkly and @hisa what's the picky blue chips you have in mind. You don't have to be detailed. Eg karaya,sufuria,kijiko.avoid sahani, bakuli na uma. That's just example I mentioned bamburi sometime back. It held well in 2015 and still continues to hold in 2016. I'm waiting for the financials (banks and insurance) to publish their FY results. Also how Q1 ends determines a lot on how the year will pan out. For Q1 readings I usually check the entire global spectrum so it takes a while to crunch those numbers The next window is Q2 coz of Mpesa bank. This is what will likely decide direction for NSE. Don't be in a rush to lose your money! Tbills/bonds are still paying descent returns.
So bamburi it is for now and waiting for simba and member? Is that correct For bamburi around 150 if it retraces. For banks i haven't decided yet though a bit biased towards kcb. Member is still in my golden handcuff list. Helios sold their gold. Who sells their gold unless it's not gold any more? Namastę and thank you Bamburi did well though on a historical basis the return is not impressive. The stock was trading at 250/- in 2004! Good to preserve capital but not for real growth. Memba now a blue chip. KCB doing well despite the GOK holdings. Green giant trading at a premium and will do so for a long time. BBK tucks tail between it legs. Invest in local businesses for real growth. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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enyands wrote:hisah wrote:enyands wrote:hisah wrote:enyands wrote:hisah wrote:sparkly wrote:Hellos, time to buy is now. You will not regret as long as you buy wisely. If you were burnt in 2015, consider it a lesson learnt. This time the buying has to be done in a picky way unlike 2011. The selling has not been exhaustive as in ulcers capitulation like back in 2008 and 2011.
Globally the markets are yet to set in a major low. Doesn't feel like a bottom yet! @sparkly and @hisa what's the picky blue chips you have in mind. You don't have to be detailed. Eg karaya,sufuria,kijiko.avoid sahani, bakuli na uma. That's just example I mentioned bamburi sometime back. It held well in 2015 and still continues to hold in 2016. I'm waiting for the financials (banks and insurance) to publish their FY results. Also how Q1 ends determines a lot on how the year will pan out. For Q1 readings I usually check the entire global spectrum so it takes a while to crunch those numbers The next window is Q2 coz of Mpesa bank. This is what will likely decide direction for NSE. Don't be in a rush to lose your money! Tbills/bonds are still paying descent returns.
So bamburi it is for now and waiting for simba and member? Is that correct For bamburi around 150 if it retraces. For banks i haven't decided yet though a bit biased towards kcb. Member is still in my golden handcuff list. Helios sold their gold. Who sells their gold unless it's not gold any more? Namastę and thank you Bamburi coming down towards 150. The Dividend Yields are becoming sweeter with Simba, CFC, BBK, SCB, Bamburi, HFC, WTK, BAT, NMG, Kapchorua, well above 5%. Member and Mpesa still around their highest yields ever. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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The fisherman does not keep on lingering on the fish that he did not get yesterday rather he ponders about that opportunities that today presents
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