Gathige wrote:
The whole battle is about access to state power and control of resources. South Sudan has vast reserves of unexploited natural resources- oil, minerals, timber and vast land with ample water- the nile cuts through the entire length of the country. His soldiers don't really get paid but are part of the cogs wheels to power upon which they will be rewarded. UG is not friendly to Machar but Sudan and Ethiopian have a soft spot for him. The West also supports him and except for the ethnic Dinkas, he has a large following among other South Sudan communities and in a open election, he can easily win. His intelligence networks internally are very good too. It is rumoured a top ex-general is the one who whisked him away after the recent Juba attacks to a safe location.
Yes that's the battle - but it's quite likely that they have already dished out may of these places to foreigners during the war. secondly there are no road networks and it will be a while before some of these places are exploited and commercialized.
my point - if he was holed up somewhere in the north east or east he would be set. West Equitoria (WE) is tough for him since he cannot move north or North east towards the Dinka or east towards Central Equitoria (since the government has lots of forces in CE). To his south - is Uganda a nation hostile to him - unless he decided to go into the congo or central african republic to the west. I think if it's true - he can stay in WE for a while but not perpetually as its easier to lay a siege on him.
In an open election Machar would coz the rest of the groups hate the tall guys... During my stay there I kept on finding myself in discussions about general life issues with equitorians and that would always digress into how 'stupid' or 'how bad' the dinkas were e.t.c. I kept on throwing disclaimers (you don't know who is listening) and ending that story only for another to spring up. it's as if any random question about the weather or food would spiral into how kiir did A or B or C.
All Mushrooms are edible! Some Mushroom are only edible ONCE!