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Kengen has bolted!
Aguytrying
#201 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 7:27:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
@murchr. Why is kenya power funding kengen???

I thought the two split . One a distributor the other a generator.
I don't get it.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
murchr
#202 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 7:41:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Aguytrying wrote:
@murchr. Why is kenya power funding kengen???

I thought the two split . One a distributor the other a generator.
I don't get it.


From the latest report from KPLC, those were the reasons that they gave as to why they are raising elec tarriffs.

I guess shareholders should ask why that is happening.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
berns
#203 Posted : Monday, February 25, 2013 7:41:04 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 2/8/2013
Posts: 27
I dont why but am the deal's fan. He's combined/backed his hunch with reasonable amounts of research. Afterall we are in the market to make money not to contest who has more valid facts. @the deal,maintain the belief because trying to please everyone is a sign of mediocrity.
Kausha
#204 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 8:40:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Aha! now KPLC has gone for the loan that made them seek a tariff increase!
Kausha
#205 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 9:16:51 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/8/2007
Posts: 808
Sincere apologies for earlier decorum failings. However I just think it's wrong for KPLC to go to ERC and ask for a tariff raise to cover current operating costs then within a week come out clean with borrowing plans. Njoro should have waited for a few months and come clean. It was obvious KPLC were going to use debt to fix the grid. This was off the earlier capital reorganization which was done to create debt capacity (by increasing equity). Thereafter a keen eye on free cashflows and profitability suggested that KPLC could only service debt of about 10B comfortably.

On Kengen's ABS, certainly it will cost them not less than 14% -16% to collect this cash. Remember the ABS is a stand alone start up SPV and will require a premium unless Kengen commits cash from existing Geothermal plants (which then sets back equity investors). Kengen will also struggle to raise this instrument abroad. Kenya would have to first raise a sovereign bond before Kengen's success can be measured. The debt uptake at Kengen to me is shocking. Off the PIBO's 25Billion we are yet to see significant cashflows. Those who have seen ARM grow can attest. You raise cement capacity and revenues go up substantially. Haven't see this in Kengen which worries me and suggests to me that Management may not be very efficient in allocation of capital.
mkonomtupu
#206 Posted : Tuesday, February 26, 2013 10:04:58 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Kausha wrote:
Sincere apologies for earlier decorum failings.

On Kengen's ABS, certainly it will cost them not less than 14% -16% to collect this cash. Remember the ABS is a stand alone start up SPV and will require a premium unless Kengen commits cash from existing Geothermal plants (which then sets back equity investors). Kengen will also struggle to raise this instrument abroad. Kenya would have to first raise a sovereign bond before Kengen's success can be measured. The debt uptake at Kengen to me is shocking. Off the PIBO's 25Billion we are yet to see significant cashflows. Those who have seen ARM grow can attest. You raise cement capacity and revenues go up substantially. Haven't see this in Kengen which worries me and suggests to me that Management may not be very efficient in allocation of capital.


@kausha I would be worried if the debt uptake was loans with commercial rates. The debt kengen is taking is concessional loans with very low interest rates less than 4% and repayment of over 30 years. If indeed there is economic growth in east africa over the coming years the capacity by kengen will be swallowed up very easily. I also think the capital allocation has been done reasonably well the PIBO projects were constructed very quickly and management chose high value projects like Kipevu in Msa, Sangoro, kindaruma upgrades. I still feel Kengen is on course from a good to great company. ARM was here 10 years ago and by doing a technology upgrade of the cement plants which is relatively easy to accomplish
the deal
#207 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 9:49:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
12 bob handle reclaimed...the ascend to 15-17 bob has begun.
murchr
#208 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 5:52:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
the deal wrote:
12 bob handle reclaimed...the ascend to 15-17 bob has begun.


smile
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
the deal
#209 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 6:29:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Kausha is one big liar...Kenya Power imported 19GWh or 0.5% of its power from Uganda Electricity Transmission Company in the 6 month to December.
hisah
#210 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 6:34:14 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
murchr wrote:
the deal wrote:
12 bob handle reclaimed...the ascend to 15-17 bob has begun.


smile

I want this thing lower. I'm very greed. Need to fill my bucket. Can that CMA guy come around with another negative newsflash to tank this thing...
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
Aguytrying
#211 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 6:57:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
the deal wrote:
12 bob handle reclaimed...the ascend to 15-17 bob has begun.


smile

I want this thing lower. I'm very greed. Need to fill my bucket. Can that CMA guy come around with another negative newsflash to tank this thing...


didnt you load up sub-eleven recently?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
Mukiri
#212 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 7:52:14 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2012
Posts: 5,222
hisah wrote:
murchr wrote:
the deal wrote:
12 bob handle reclaimed...the ascend to 15-17 bob has begun.


smile

I want this thing lower. I'm very greed. Need to fill my bucket. Can that CMA guy come around with another negative newsflash to tank this thing...

And he'll go unpunished! This our market needs regulations ASAP

Proverbs 19:21
murchr
#213 Posted : Wednesday, February 27, 2013 7:59:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
http://www.businessdaily...4/-/moixnsz/-/index.html
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
ChessMaster
#214 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2013 6:12:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
Competition?

There goes Kengen for me but at least we might reap the benefits of competition or Kenya Power will have more bargaining power.Who knows.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
murchr
#215 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2013 6:45:05 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
ChessMaster wrote:
Competition?

There goes Kengen for me but at least we might reap the benefits of competition or Kenya Power will have more bargaining power.Who knows.


IPPs are many, Mumias being one of them. Question is, who will produce the cheapest power? Geothermal beats them all.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
murchr
#216 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2013 6:46:47 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
The upward momentum is back
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
ChessMaster
#217 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2013 6:51:16 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/23/2009
Posts: 1,626
murchr wrote:
ChessMaster wrote:
Competition?

There goes Kengen for me but at least we might reap the benefits of competition or Kenya Power will have more bargaining power.Who knows.


IPPs are many, Mumias being one of them. Question is, who will produce the cheapest power? Geothermal beats them all.


It still remains a good stock but its attracted the attention of the 'big boys'.For me long-term I have shifted my perspective.
Uncertainty is certain.Let go
the deal
#218 Posted : Tuesday, March 12, 2013 10:08:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Sprinting like bolt again...100%.....smile hail the contrarian!!!! money making machine.
simmons
#219 Posted : Wednesday, March 13, 2013 11:00:34 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/28/2013
Posts: 61
Location: Nairobi s
kengen is now sprinting backwards
Never be afraid to try something new.Remeber,amateurs built the ark Professionals built titanic.-Anonymous
mwekez@ji
#220 Posted : Monday, March 18, 2013 10:33:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
KenGen’s Sh3trl budget puzzle in Vision 2030 bid

Kengen will have to spend at least Sh170 billion annually over the next 17 years to meet the country’s projected power demand and to help in the attainment of Vision 2030.

“To achieve the company’s expansion plan, significant funding is required at the lowest practicable cost and to get an optimum mix of internal and external financing,” said Mr Njoroge.

The company has now announced plans to issue a Sh30 billion 20-year bond to finance additional energy production.
http://www.nation.co.ke/busines...6/-/1tj8ufz/-/index.html
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