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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,619
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Jamani wrote:cnn wrote: 1205 ....which is the 52 week high for the share,where is the premium?http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PUMA:ZL The cautionary announcements were first issued in March 2010, looking at the graph it was trading at below 875, the mandatory take-over opened on the 27th of Aug-2012 to 17th Sept-2012. Based on the price at initial announcement and the offer price i bet you can clearly see the premium.. I did see that,meaning if you go on a speculative buying spree after the cautionary statement is made,you are on your own should a take over proceed to completion at a price below your purchase one.Where was KK when the announcement was made...12.50?
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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cnn wrote:Jamani wrote:cnn wrote: 1205 ....which is the 52 week high for the share,where is the premium?http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PUMA:ZL The cautionary announcements were first issued in March 2010, looking at the graph it was trading at below 875, the mandatory take-over opened on the 27th of Aug-2012 to 17th Sept-2012. Based on the price at initial announcement and the offer price i bet you can clearly see the premium.. I did see that,meaning if you go on a speculative buying spree after the cautionary statement is made,you are on your own should a take over proceed to completion at a price below your purchase one.Where was KK when the announcement was made...12.50? Yes somewhere around that price, but remember the fair value @ 17.65, then mark-up from the fair value. The graph on Zambia doesnt go beyond one year the price might have been lower than or around 500 at the time of the initial cautionary statement
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Jamani wrote:Very interesting only 0.2% of the Zambian Wanjikus sold This was the offer made by Puma but the final results are not known. Or I do not have them. It will be interesting to see where it ends up. http://www.luse.co.zm/?wpfb_dl=67 check item No. 4 Thanks! The LUSE website is weird... not sure how you found it! Anyway, interesting that Puma kept the listing AND got the support of the institutional shareholders who must have figured out that 1,205 was a good price to BUY the shares! So the Wanjiku who did not sell might be better off in the long-run! If this model is used for KK then it could remain listed yet Puma acquires the shares from the majority [biwott] with a maximum shareholding of 75%. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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cnn wrote:Jamani wrote:cnn wrote: 1205 ....which is the 52 week high for the share,where is the premium?http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/PUMA:ZL The cautionary announcements were first issued in March 2010, looking at the graph it was trading at below 875, the mandatory take-over opened on the 27th of Aug-2012 to 17th Sept-2012. Based on the price at initial announcement and the offer price i bet you can clearly see the premium.. I did see that,meaning if you go on a speculative buying spree after the cautionary statement is made,you are on your own should a take over proceed to completion at a price below your purchase one.Where was KK when the announcement was made...12.50? The 1205 on the graph could be one of two scenarios: 1) The price AFTER Puma announced the buy-out price. In essence, the folks who bought at 1205 wanted to be shareholders or were speculating on a higher offer by Puma. Risky move. Puma's announcement came when KK was 12.50 but was suspended. Then the suspension was lifted & the current price is 15. If Puma announces 20, the price will trend towards 20 on speculation that Puma may increase the bid. The sellers can refuse to sell below 20 [except the discount for time value]. 2) The price the LuSE shows on the price list is not the trading price but what Puma offered as the buy-out price, in essence the bid. The last or highest trading price prior to the offer might have been much lower. This would be the equivalent of KK trading at 15 on 5th Sep then Puma announcing 20 on 7th Sep (with a suspension) which becomes the "bid" for all practical purposes until the suspension is lifted. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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VituVingiSana wrote:
If this model is used for KK then it could remain listed yet Puma acquires the shares from the majority [biwott] with a maximum shareholding of 75%.
Maybe they'll go that route. Could it be why Segman keeps telling shareholders about the improvements this 'strategic investor' will bring to the company? I mean, if Puma wants the whole piece of the pie, what they bring afterwards wouldn't matter to us... GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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The 1H was worse than I anticipated. Much worse! I did expect some losses [read the Chairman's Statement as well as the Comprehensive Income Statement] but not 4bn. That loss will reduce the how much Puma will pay for KK by about KES 2 (based on what was known to Puma in May 2012 when the takeover was announced) & what happened through June 2012. I expect KK to make a profit in 2H. It will not cover the loss in 1H but it can be 'added' to what Puma will pay. My calculations: Kestrel's last valuation was 21 less 2 (1H loss beyond what was shown in the Annual Report) add 1 (2H profits) = 20 If the deal falls through (delays due to the employees nonsensical court case, KPC's bullshit, etc) then the price will drop. Probably back to 12.50 though I expect Puma will enter into a different deal [Segman kept on talking of a JV at the AGM] that benefits both parties. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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 Not quite. What happened was that LuSE (& GRZ) did not want BP/Puma to de-list so they kept on throwing roadblocks. The same happened with Celtel/Airtel. Zambia was socialist. These firms had a government ownership which was floated/listed [see Safaricom, etc] but the 'new' buyers did not want to remain listed for some reason or the other. Note that neither Puma nor Airtel are listed on any exchange in Africa except Zambia. LuSE is a small exchange therefore BP/Puma & Celtel/Airtel de-listing would be a huge blow. It's more about nationalism than economics. Back to Kenya. The delays are about the fools seeking to stop/delay the transaction not the NSE/GoK (well, not yet!). The good news is KK is profitable & probably has an informal JV with Puma already for supply of crude, fuel, etc. If a good offer is made e.g. 20, why would shareholders petition the NSE/CMA/GoK to delay the payment? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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Employees: I do not believe they have grounds but this is Kenya where the judges often make funny rulings based on emotions, (little) understanding & a false sense of nationalism. I am leaving out corruption since they are being watched closely. *What's the progress? Why has the hearing been delayed?* KPC: The case is just a spoiler. They want KK to deposit 1bn+ with the court to 'guarantee' payment IF they win the countersuit vs KK. It is an attempt at blackmail since KK as won the earlier case against KPC except the (misguided) judges thought the award was too high. It was sent back to the arbitrator. *What's the progress with the arbitration?* Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:Kestrel's last valuation was 21 less 2 (1H loss beyond what was shown in the Annual Report) add 1 (2H profits) = 20 @VVS will kestrel put in the bid for KK?? Is Kestrel carrying out due diligence for Puma?? if in Zambia they offered 1205 up from 875 that is a useless gain for 2 whole years waiting for a deal... KK shareholders should not be shocked if Puma offers 17bob because that is a serious gain from the average price before the cautionary statement! If the deal falls through i will gladly buy at 8-9bob! btw the KK shares i sold at 14bob to buy KCB @ 25bob have already made me a cool 12%  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The story goes like this...when Puma bought a 75% stake in Bp Zm it was suppose to make a mandatory offer to the minority shareholders 25% thats according to SEC of Zm rules but at the same time the Gava of Zm never wanted Bp Zm delisted cos it would reduce the no of listed companies on the Luse, so Puma applied to the SEC to waiver the mandatory takeover rule, the SEC turned down the application last year thus Puma had to make a mandatory takeover this year. To keep the company listed which is the wish of the Gava of Zm they had to sell any share they bought back to Zambian institutions. So in the end Puma keeps 75% and the Zm unit stays listed. Premium? Yes there was...Puma bought the 75% in 2011 at K1149 and offered the minority K1205!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Kestrel's last valuation was 21 less 2 (1H loss beyond what was shown in the Annual Report) add 1 (2H profits) = 20 @VVS will kestrel put in the bid for KK?? Is Kestrel carrying out due diligence for Puma?? if in Zambia they offered 1205 up from 875 that is a useless gain for 2 whole years waiting for a deal... KK shareholders should not be shocked if Puma offers 17bob because that is a serious gain from the average price before the cautionary statement! If the deal falls through i will gladly buy at 8-9bob! btw the KK shares i sold at 14bob to buy KCB @ 25bob have already made me a cool 12% Good for you ;-) I am quite comfy thanks to the panic got in at 13 so 15/13.2 (including transaction costs) = 13.6% Don't stress too much. We will wait to see the outcome. I figure we shall know sooner than later  I bought the 'firm' at a discount so I am happy. As for worrying whether Kestrel will put in the bid... They are on the 'sellers' side & probably know a lot more than the rest of us. I have a feeling that the biwott family will sell out at a 'healthy' price which would benefit minority shareholders as well... Worst case: The takeover is off the table. KK continues its business. No stress on my end. I own shares at a fair price in a well-run firm. What Buffett calls a 10-bagger. We wait, profits roll in, dividends get paid out and share prices rise. It's all good  Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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guru267 wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Kestrel's last valuation was 21 less 2 (1H loss beyond what was shown in the Annual Report) add 1 (2H profits) = 20 @VVS will kestrel put in the bid for KK?? Is Kestrel carrying out due diligence for Puma?? if in Zambia they offered 1205 up from 875 that is a useless gain for 2 whole years waiting for a deal... KK shareholders should not be shocked if Puma offers 17bob because that is a serious gain from the average price before the cautionary statement! If the deal falls through i will gladly buy at 8-9bob! btw the KK shares i sold at 14bob to buy KCB @ 25bob have already made me a cool 12% March 2010 the Zambian share was trading much less than 875, probably between 500 and 600... 875 price range is after the cautionary statement
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/12/2006 Posts: 1,554
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If Puma offers less than KES 17.65, there is no harm we stay in and leverage on the advantages that puma will bring onboard as we look forward to the expected oil finds.
Remember Puma is seeing high value in KK and it knows very well its a diamond in the rough.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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Jamani wrote:If Puma offers less than KES 17.65, there is no harm we stay in and leverage on the advantages that puma will bring onboard as we look forward to the expected oil finds.
Remember Puma is seeing high value in KK and it knows very well its a diamond in the rough. I believe (as I said earlier) even if the Takeover 'fails' there will some sort of JV that will make KK the 'supply partner' for Puma in East, Central & Southern Africa. KK supplies Zambia with fuel & lubricants. KK has a trading desk/operations in Mozambique. Expanding to Zimbabwe, Malawi & Botswana is not that difficult for KK. KK's partner in the 5-country deal they lost to Puma was Engen who might step in & fill Puma's shoes. KK is a beautiful young girl. The suitors are many  it's the size of the lobola that matters! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The takeover price will be much higher than most street estimates
1. Top notch Assets-Number 1 supplier of lubricants in Zambia, Number 1 in terms of maket share in Rwanda, Kenya and Uganda. KK runs East Africa.
2. Top notch management-I see Mr Segmen becoming the Chairman of Puma Energy Africa
3. Competitors-By buying KK, Puma is swallowing competition.
4. Supplier/new Customers-Puma has no precense in East Africa´s biggest economy. Puma can use KK´s expansive network of storage facility to supply the companies East and Central Africa network.
5. Final Piece of the Jigsaw Puzzle-KK is the missing piece then waala Puma has a strong sub saharan chain.
Takeovers involving several countries take alot of effort and time to complete, this deal can stretch into next year...which is not a bad thing considering KK would have recovered from those horrible H1 losses.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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Well well this gal is beautiful indeed. But where many suitors are involved, there is a tendency of one getting tired and throwing in the towel Quote:In an exchange of letters between the two oil firms, Total, which jointly operates storage depots in Mombasa and Nairobi with KenolKobil, says it must be offered the first right to buy KenolKobil’s shares in the depots, or it will to go to court to stop the acquisition.
But KenolKobil dismisses Total’s claim to pre-emptive rights, on the grounds that it entered the joint projects through its subsidiary Kobil Petroleum. It argues that what is up for acquisition by Puma Energy is KenolKobil, not Kobil Petroleum. The EastAfrican"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:As for worrying whether Kestrel will put in the bid... They are on the 'sellers' side Doesn't rational thinking tell us that the bidders will always bid lower than the sellers asking price?? It happens everyday on the NSE!! So if Kestrel says 20bob i don't see why Puma won't offer 17bob.. VituVingiSana wrote: I have a feeling that the biwott family will sell out at a 'healthy' price which would benefit minority shareholders as well... Biwott probably got his shares at less than 1bob when he got in.. He will gladly take 17bob from Puma as it will be the all time high share price for the stock and like 20times what he put in.. Why would Biwott care about minority shareholders?? VituVingiSana wrote:I own shares at a fair price in a well-run firm. What Buffett calls a 10-bagger. A business with TERRIBLE margins will unlikely ever be a "10bagger" no matter how good the management! Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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murchr wrote:Well well this gal is beautiful indeed. But where many suitors are involved, there is a tendency of one getting tired and throwing in the towel Quote:In an exchange of letters between the two oil firms, Total, which jointly operates storage depots in Mombasa and Nairobi with KenolKobil, says it must be offered the first right to buy KenolKobil’s shares in the depots, or it will to go to court to stop the acquisition.
But KenolKobil dismisses Total’s claim to pre-emptive rights, on the grounds that it entered the joint projects through its subsidiary Kobil Petroleum. It argues that what is up for acquisition by Puma Energy is KenolKobil, not Kobil Petroleum. The EastAfrican The drama is getting better... Shakeouts then sizable gains. Dizzy volatility rides $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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I'm seating here & laughing at the challenge by Total Kenya...its WEAK! Read JIS comments in that story. I have cash...I would like to buy I missed adding more at 13 bob last time btwn KK screwed Total Kenya & now Puma will finish them off...its funny how KK never talked about stopping the Total Kenya (TK) buy out of Caltex cos they had a pre emptive right to buy caltex share in the oil facility...look where the acquisition of caltex has ended TK...Losses year in year out...up to the point they had to recapitalise...Hidiots!
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