In my view, the Kenya government should earn at least $10B in revenue per annum from oil for it to make any meaningful rapid impact. That would probably mean discovering at least 10 billion barrels of oil. Of course how much is extracted per day and how much the government earns depends on several other factors.
Saw the IMF estimate Tanzania government would earn about $2B-$3B per annum from its massive gas finds and quite frankly, I was hugely underwhelmed. And I think 99.99% of Tanzanians dont yet understand this so their astronomical expectations are going to be massively deflated in the near future. $2B wont do much for a country as large and poor as Kenya. You need big revenue Angola or Nigeria style. Tens of billions of dollars per annum.
Would also hope for Kenyan companies to be full or part owners of most if not all oil fields. For instance, state-owned NOCK should be a part owner (even if its minority stake a.l.a Safaricom, KQ and KCB) of all extraction projects. This is the thing the Turkana community under the guidance of their county government should push for. A kind of community trust that is part owner of all oil fields within the county. Even if its just 10%-15%.
Ultimately, we need as much of that revenue remaining in Kenya as possible. Algeria, Angola and Saudi Arabia would not be where they are if they had not nationalised their oil fields (dont advocate such drastic move tho'). That profit would be sitting in Big Oil bank accounts in the West, paid as dividends to Westerners and developing their countries. Despite the massive corruption and cronyism, I like what Angola is doing through Sonangol as opposed to handing over everything no-questions-asked 100% to foreign corporations.
Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:[quote=murchr]Tullow Oil Company on Thursday announced a discovery of oil at the Etom 1 exploration well that it said extended the already proven South Lokichar Basin “significantly northwards”.
Opening tests in neighbouring Kerio Basin would start in September.
“The next basin-opening test will be in the neighbouring Kerio Basin, with the Kodos-1 well expected to spud in early September”.
http://www.businessdaily.../-/v9bwsoz/-/index.html[/quote]
This kind of news does not seem to attract reactions from Kenyans anymore, our famous ADD has checked in yet this additional discoveries (appraisal wells) are the most important as they determine the size of the cake.
For us, we want now, not in 2017 or sijui nini.
Reading Ghana's story, i am just wondering what could be right number of BPD that would really get us going. 500,000?
All my friends are heathens, take it slow. Wait for them to ask you who you know. Please don't make any sudden moves.