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KENOL/KOBIL
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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stocksmaster wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:"The two fold strategy of geographical expansion and diversification of the groups business lines has produced above expectations results, contributing strongly to the bottom line" Diversification and Geographical expansion- spreading risk/diversify profitability lines: *At Group Level % of PBT based on 1st Half 2011: • Retail/Resell- 14% • Commercial-7% • Aviation- 17% • Export-14% • Trading Desk-11%. • LPG- 8% • Non Fuel- 5% • Lubes- 4% • F.O & Bitumen – 20% With the above diversification, its clear why Total Kenya problems are not reflected in KenolKobil........Retail/resell of fuel (what we think is the core business of KK) and what is killing Total Kenya due to price regulation accounts for only 14% of group PBT.....Remember this 14% is based on all countries they have retail networks:Kenya,Uganda,Rwanda,Burundi,Tanzania,Zambia and Ethiopia. Assuming 1/3 of this retail business is attributable to Kenya (Check how the 400 fuel stations are geographically distributed per country), then that means the impact of price control introduced in Kenyalast year affects about only (1/3 x 14%) ie 5% of the PBT of the group. This is the power of business diversification both in terms of regions (reduces country specific risk) and products. In fact, based on the above breakdown, KK derives 1/5th of its PBT from bitumen!! Happy Hunting. Cheers mate!! 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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[quote=the deal]A FY EPS of Sh2.3-2.5 @hisah will this news save this stock from the capitulation that started at 12 bob http://contrarianinvesti...-earnings-guidance.html[/quote] In a bear market good news is bad news and bad news is bad news. The opposite applies to the bull. It's all about Mr Market's psychology.
For KK as stated before money was made @12. That exit volume still stands. The KK fundamentals look rosy, but that exit volume puts across a lot of questions. Why isn't it floating like agri stocks or jubilee?
Update - @deal are u aware of the VSA technique? When I scoped equity in April & saw a possibility of 20/- being hit, I was almost slaughtered by @mukiha. It also works nicely in forex. @kizee should now understand why USDKES zoomed past 90. Smart money (the house aka Mr Market) always plays games against expectations and against the crowd 
http://www.informedtrade...me-spread-analysis.html
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Member Joined: 11/26/2009 Posts: 67 Location: Pare pare
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Hey guys,torn between kk @ 9.50 and kcb @ 15.10. With the threat of mass loan defaults hanging,is it advisable to go for the banks.... Any advice? Hug the bear....ride the bull.....di$mount!!!
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Rank: Chief Joined: 5/31/2011 Posts: 5,121
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stocksmaster wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:"The two fold strategy of geographical expansion and diversification of the groups business lines has produced above expectations results, contributing strongly to the bottom line" Diversification and Geographical expansion- spreading risk/diversify profitability lines: *At Group Level % of PBT based on 1st Half 2011: • Retail/Resell- 14% • Commercial-7% • Aviation- 17% • Export-14% • Trading Desk-11%. • LPG- 8% • Non Fuel- 5% • Lubes- 4% • F.O & Bitumen – 20% With the above diversification, its clear why Total Kenya problems are not reflected in KenolKobil........Retail/resell of fuel (what we think is the core business of KK) and what is killing Total Kenya due to price regulation accounts for only 14% of group PBT.....Remember this 14% is based on all countries they have retail networks:Kenya,Uganda,Rwanda,Burundi,Tanzania,Zambia and Ethiopia. Assuming 1/3 of this retail business is attributable to Kenya (Check how the 400 fuel stations are geographically distributed per country), then that means the impact of price control introduced in Kenyalast year affects about only (1/3 x 14%) ie 5% of the PBT of the group. This is the power of business diversification both in terms of regions (reduces country specific risk) and products. In fact, based on the above breakdown, KK derives 1/5th of its PBT from bitumen!! Happy Hunting.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,622
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[quote=VituVingiSana]Kenyans...
Firms that don't give info (& minimal info) at the last minute... Some folks complain!
Firms like KK which gives S/holders info on a regular basis... Some folks complain!
I am happy to get REGULAR updates from KK. I am very happy to hear the profits are expected to be in line with the projections. What will be even better is if the profits meet the US$ targets coz that is more KShs for me!!!
I have a strong hunch that KK's market share (in Kenya) will be the highest it has ever been in 2011...
PIEA data shows KK petroleum market share in Kenya is at 23.4 %in September compared to 24% in June,Total has seen its share up to 23.7% (effectively taking over the top spot from KK) .The small players have seen a surge in their share from 16% to 24%.(how?).Overall market share led by Kenol at 21.3% to Total's 19.7%.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,622
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jerry wrote:@Impunity. The ALL TIME LOW stands at 8.40! Anyhow I'm also waiting at 8! Not true..i have a lot purchased @ 5.9 in 09.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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cnn wrote:jerry wrote:@Impunity. The ALL TIME LOW stands at 8.40! Anyhow I'm also waiting at 8! Not true..i have a lot purchased @ 5.9 in 09. it had gone as low as 45 before the split. I remember, i almost got slaughtered when i advised BUY in the old SK. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,261 Location: Nairobi
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@cnn - I am not sure how PIEA does the calcs or what the lag is... I need to look at the data... I notice KK (& other majors) have stopped selling kerosene in many stations... I wonder if Kerosene is counted as 'fuel' sales? The reason I think KK's market share will increase in 4Q 2011 (or even during 3Q 2011) was Deal Poa. I am sure many folks would rather fill up at KK to save the KShs 2-5 per litre! Also the narrow margins for many retailers will kill off sales as cashflow problems hit the smaller firms... The 24% (or higher) interest rates are another nail in the coffin! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,261 Location: Nairobi
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http://www.petroleum.co....amp;id=56&Itemid=59
I am sure Nairobi is the largest market for fuel followed by RV then Coast then Central... Branded stations dominate Nairobi & have a good showing in RV too... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,622
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,261 Location: Nairobi
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cnn wrote:http://www.petroleum.co.ke/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=50&Itemid=51 Ahhh, thanks but please note that I am interested in 3Q & 4Q coz that's when the crap hit the fan for many OMCs... I wish we had a 3Q breakdown separated from 1Q & 2Q... I am sure OilLibya took a whacking after the gaddafi problems started esp if it used Libyan banks to finance deals/trading... BTW, what's the difference between overall market share & petroleum sales? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,622
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@vvs...my guess is overall market includes bitumen,Lpg,Aviation,lubricants etc,i stand to be corrected though.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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sparkly wrote:cnn wrote:jerry wrote:@Impunity. The ALL TIME LOW stands at 8.40! Anyhow I'm also waiting at 8! Not true..i have a lot purchased @ 5.9 in 09. it had gone as low as 45 before the split. I remember, i almost got slaughtered when i advised BUY in the old SK. http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...aspx?g=posts&t=5023
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,261 Location: Nairobi
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cnn wrote:@vvs...my guess is overall market includes bitumen,Lpg,Aviation,lubricants etc,i stand to be corrected though. Could be... No idea... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 10/6/2011 Posts: 84
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sparkly wrote:cnn wrote:jerry wrote:@Impunity. The ALL TIME LOW stands at 8.40! Anyhow I'm also waiting at 8! Not true..i have a lot purchased @ 5.9 in 09. it had gone as low as 45 before the split. I remember, i almost got slaughtered when i advised BUY in the old SK. KK's all time low lie at 2.54 factoring in all the splits and bonuses ... 
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,622
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2.54 ...if i remember correctly it was a suspicious transaction and CMA had to intervene,they even had to lift the 10% rule for a day for the share to find its true value.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Kweli the 'wheels of justice' in Kenya grind slowly. That KPC appeal has never been heard? Ama kesi iliisha? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Simplified wrote:Hey guys,torn between kk @ 9.50 and kcb @ 15.10. With the threat of mass loan defaults hanging,is it advisable to go for the banks.... Any advice? KCB.. the defaults will not outweigh the boost in interest income from growing loan books.. W Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570
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cnn wrote:2.54 ...if i remember correctly it was a suspicious transaction and CMA had to intervene,they even had to lift the 10% rule for a day for the share to find its true value. @cnn. So do we expect a 7.50 (say in Dec) now that a low of 5.90 has been confirmed to have been executed? The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 8/16/2011 Posts: 2,360
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cnn wrote:@vvs...my guess is overall market includes bitumen,Lpg,Aviation,lubricants etc,i stand to be corrected though. Overall Market share is the Percentage penetration or customer base in comparision with other players in the same business This shows likelihood of one using KK or shell or total as company of choice to buy products desired. Petroleum sales is the amount or sale done in a period of time for only few major products taken at that time like say Petrol, diesel, kerosine and LPG(that for instance have controls)
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