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Elliott Wave Analysis Of The NSE 20
Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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mnandii wrote:Unlike most here (and that is usually the case with Elliott Waves i.e contrarianism), I expect a much bigger fall in the NSE 20 share index. You see, some people are still not convinced of the BIG BEAR at hand. That's why people are calling for some bottom soon! The point of recognition for most guys is coming soon. This is NOT a time to indulge in ANY stocks, most eespecially SAFARICOM. The coming dividend is fooling people. You should balance between the expected dividend and the potential capital LOSS on the stock. Indeed negative mood and deflation pressure are making the bear muscular. But I'm looking at international capital flows with an eye on sovereign debt crisis. If this event triggers equities will benefit as the spooked bond outflows flow into equities - funds flow inversion. Have a look at FTSE and Dow. They're hinting that this inversion spike will trigger as negative interest rates push the masses out of govt paper.$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,185 Location: nairobi
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streetwise wrote:CFCI down 63% ; YYYYY? because somebody wants it's blood by playing psychological games "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/30/2016 Posts: 332 Location: Kayole
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streetwise wrote:CFCI down 63% ; YYYYY? system has been hacked KEGN, KPLC, KQ, SCOM
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/4/2009 Posts: 10,703 Location: NAIROBI
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EABL at 241 and EA Portland at 23. Banking stocks are stagnant with some reporting declines. Bear run still continues. Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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streetwise wrote:CFCI down 63% ; YYYYY? Fat finger accident or what  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/23/2011 Posts: 1,740 Location: Nairobi
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Losers
Price Change
CFCI 5.55 63.84% ▼
PORT 22.50 10.00% ▼
FAHR-I 10.65 9.75% ▼
UMME 15.00 9.09% ▼
FIRE 2.40 7.69% ▼
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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streetwise wrote:
Losers
Price Change
CFCI 5.55 63.84% ▼
PORT 22.50 10.00% ▼
FAHR-I 10.65 9.75% ▼
UMME 15.00 9.09% ▼
FIRE 2.40 7.69% ▼
Top Losers
Stock Price % Gain
Umme 15.00 -9.09
FAHR 10.75 -8.90
EAPORT 23.00 -8.00
CFCI 14.40 -6.19
DCON 11.20 -5.08
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2012 Posts: 15,980
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hisah wrote:streetwise wrote:CFCI down 63% ; YYYYY? Fat finger accident or what Maybe  "There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2014 Posts: 257
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streetwise wrote:CFCI down 63% ; YYYYY? Released their HY results. More on this thread http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...spx?g=posts&t=34612
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:hisah wrote:hisah wrote:whiteowl wrote:I have a feeling the downtrend will resume next week. The index is quite oversold, I expect November to be a rebound month. Infact I hope the bounce holds until Q2 2016, then we get the proper selloff to test 2011 lows. This is in order to confirm if that low was solid or not. A bull that starts from that low will be awesome if the bulls are to blow away the NSE20 6161 all time high barrier. @whiteowl I hope you are alive and well as the bear claws get powerful. We had this discussion back in November 2015.
NSE20 is currently testing the 2011 lows (3103) as per expectation as the sell off flash hit 3123. Was this low solid or not? That's what we're bound to know in coming weeks. The volume spike is fantastic since it's larger than the spike back in 2011.
If the market bases out at this level and restarts the bullish run from here that will be an awesome double bottom! #Respect. Nice call. Though the trigger seems to the "Banking Amendment" which was unexpected. What's your next call? Most of the TA fans expect further downside, but I'm of the opposite view that the market may base out and form a solid double bottom. The above analysis had also factored in the unpopular rate cap, which I discussed again click here back in April 2016. The only outlier that will negate the double bottom scenario is if the US Fed bank hikes their rate more than expected. That would hit emerging market harder. But should the sovereign debt crisis trigger (likely), I foresee a crazy stampede into quality equities across the global! This is why the likes of apple, google etc are getting bid beyond reason! At the NSE, mpesa bank is displaying similar behaviour. The trick will be to ID those NSE counters that will likely get a bazooka bid when such an event triggers. Finally, FTSE 100 is coiling post Brexit and ready for an explosive move higher. Will this pull along FTSE NSE KE...? Interesting observations and a brave call for the bottom however I hold a different view. After brexit happened markets retreated into relative calmness. It is almost incredible that there is no headline grabbing crisis ever since but it is a matter of time. Italy is holding a referendum in October and not much is known of the fate awaiting its banks. By virtue of participating in a NIRP environment eurozone banks are treading on thin ice. That's a stack of dominoes waiting for a tipping point. The sovereign debt crisis is a slow burner at first and then it transforms into a cascade of default after default. When it comes calling, the USD will be in the driving seat. Any currency that can't mitigate capital loss vs the USD will have capital fleeing and by extension its stock market. Having quit the EU, Britain stands to gain plus it has tax advantages @20% which is lower vs most EU countries. Most of the countries with a lower tax rate than Britain are Eastern European countries but the latter are shackled by regulations leaving Britain in prime position. Ireland registered a GDP growth of 26% in Q1 or Q2 in what initially looked like an aberration/miscalculation but it turned out to be solid. Why? Capital inflows and a tax rate of 12.5%. Towards that regard, GBP should do well vs the rest of the eurozone. Similarly for the Swiss franc (though over time it has lost its appeal). There are a couple of other so-called safe havens which should outperform when things go south but its always a relativity game. US indices have been playing in a safe zone for the better part of the last two years until recently when they registered some marginal uptick. If this plays out the way it is increasingly looking like, then US stocks will rally hard for a short period of time (kinda like the NSE in August/September 2014) before eventually giving way to a vicious bear. FTSE should closely mirror the same pattern. KES vs USD has absolutely refused to retrace its losses from 80's range and has made three digits its new home. Without an improvement in our fiscal position, balance of payments and current account deficit there is no platform for strength against the dollar. This places KE and its stock market firmly in the losers camp in the battle to attract capital in the short and medium term. With regards to the bottom call, I don't think we have seen the last of the bear run. I don't expect the 3000 mark to collapse without a fight but I think it will give way in the next shakeout event. Even if a rally ensues from current levels it is hard to picture much upside to it. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/18/2014 Posts: 1,127
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hisah wrote:mnandii wrote:Unlike most here (and that is usually the case with Elliott Waves i.e contrarianism), I expect a much bigger fall in the NSE 20 share index. You see, some people are still not convinced of the BIG BEAR at hand. That's why people are calling for some bottom soon! The point of recognition for most guys is coming soon. This is NOT a time to indulge in ANY stocks, most eespecially SAFARICOM. The coming dividend is fooling people. You should balance between the expected dividend and the potential capital LOSS on the stock. Indeed negative mood and deflation pressure are making the bear muscular. But I'm looking at international capital flows with an eye on sovereign debt crisis. If this event triggers equities will benefit as the spooked bond outflows flow into equities - funds flow inversion. Have a look at FTSE and Dow. They're hinting that this inversion spike will trigger as negative interest rates push the masses out of govt paper. KE affairs are not in good shape. GoK has been playing hide and seek with its day of reckoning for the last twelve months. Given that most of our debt obligations are front-loaded I await to see how the govt will navigate the rest of the year unscathed. Extend and pretend can only take you so far. The next government will have very little room to maneuver. They will take over an economy in critical condition and a crippling debt...think of the US back in 2008(TARP, QE et al pitted against actual reform). That makes for two choices; continue with the current economic mismanagement and hope/pray - but mostly pray - that sh*t doesn't hit the fan under their watch (short term gain) which will ultimately lead to bigger problems or bite the bullet and undertake some radical overhauls(short term pain). To some extent that discounts the next election's risk level. It can only make things worse through chaos but it doesn't qualify as the trigger or cause seeing as systemic malaise will stay put. Our borrowing spree was hot on the heels of the 2012 oil discovery. GoK then went ahead to hitch our economic wagon on to that gravy train and a great degree of our ability to pay back those debts hinges on the same windfall. That someone is rushing to export oil in June of next year whereas both Tullow and Africa Oil were indicating 2019/20 as the earliest date is a bad sign...it seems that the govt is attempting a quick fix to hide its quirks. Banks have a consolidation sized cloud hanging over them. The trigger for that to happen is, for now, the only unknown. Either way a messy process awaits. We have had short bouts of panic since the bear kicked in but none them has turned the tide comprehensively. Imperial bank saga, chase bank folding up and the interest cap drama have all come and gone without landing the knockout blow. Market mood can turn on a dime(think kcb's credibility in this forum). The general civil mood is negative though a huge chunk is still ambivalent. Most can't point their finger as to what is wrong and ditto for market participants. Bullish sentiments on a few stocks (especially safcom) still rent the air. The bear has some unfinished business...it doesn't feel like a basing out. The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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@lochaz-index. Some deeps thoughts there. Food for thought The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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GoK [after the next election coz we know the hard decisions will not be taken until then] needs to cut back its expenditure. Yes, projects will stall. Yes, folks will be upset. Yes, economic growth will seem to slow down. Yes, the KES might even take a hit. [But will eventually recover] Yet, this will let us take a step back and look at PRIVATE sector growth that is sustainable instead of "economic activity" composed of importing goods. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 2/7/2014 Posts: 155
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@lochaz-Index. very grateful for that write up.I do get to learn alot.Mucha gracias
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Rank: Chief Joined: 8/4/2010 Posts: 8,977
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Mpesa bank intraday turnover hits 1.07B (56.4M shares) exdiv  $15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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hisah wrote:Mpesa bank intraday turnover hits 1.07B (56.4M shares) exdiv Crazy. Since the rate cap there have been high turnovers on saf, equity, kcb The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:A Socionomic View of AccidentsAt market tops (the height of positive social mood) flying is safer while driving is dangerous. The elevated social mood creates feelings of inclusionism. Flying requires joint effort with different teams working together to make the event a success. Thus enough attention is directed at safety. The elevated social mood creates optimism. Optimistic drivers over-speed thus leading to accidents. ................................................. In bear markets, social mood is depressed creating feelings of exclusionism (people pulling in different directions). Thus, for flights, this pulling apart precludes paying enough attention to safety measures hence aviation accidents. Depressed people do not over-speed thus fewer vehicular accidents in a bear market. Therefore, as this bear matures, ensure you limit frequency of your flying and embark on driving more.  Post 1036 on October 15th, 2015 Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote: Pp 164 Quote:...
Monopoly priviledges stifle innovation, so when monopoly power is removed, an industry is allowed to develop. In contrast, upon every single antitrust action against successful non-monopoly corporations (read Safaricom), innovation did (does) not
immediately burst forth. The reason is that each of these successful companies, in a climate of free competition, was precisely the one responsible for the immense innovation (e.g. Mpesa, introduction of High Speed Mobile internet) that had already occurred. These disparate results confirm the difference between the two types of entities.
We can now see that the principle behind the government's actions with respect to these disparate entities is the same: At tops, the government initiates force to stifle free competition and success ( attacks on Safaricom on alleged dominance); at bottoms, it removes force that has stifled free competition and success. This latter impetus takes two forms: withdrawing antitrust actions against successful non-monopoly companies and dissolving actual monopolies. With this knowledge, we again have the ability to do some limited probabilistic forecasting both in terms of predicting actions against monopolies and predicting major social mood changes when those actions occur Thus, if Safaricom survives the bear market, we should expect governmental attacks against it to reduce as social mood once again turns positive (i.e when the NSE 20 Share Index bottoms and starts the leg up, and if by then it will not have been broken up as intended by the gov., then the impetus to break it up will dissolve). On the other hand as the bear market probes a bottom, we should expect monopolies such as Posta and Kenya Power to be broken up and new entrants to compete directly with them. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 10/11/2006 Posts: 2,304
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mnandii wrote:The permeating negative social mood cause government agencies to become sloppy. Such an environment is rife for terrorist attacks. Conventional thinkers waste time building shelters when they are unnecessary and then have no shelters when they need them the most. Socionomists do the opposite.
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