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KENOL KOBIL .... 2012
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King G
#2101 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 12:32:27 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2012
Posts: 3,855
Location: Othumo
Jamani wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
There is a conviction in me which persuades me to take what is on the table other than waiting for the unknown.


The price comes down and KK releases a statement with intent of cautioning the sellers doesnt that tell us something?



That was well calculated and timed nicely for Wanjiku to relax and sure they did.
Thieves
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selah
#2102 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 2:56:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/13/2009
Posts: 1,950
Location: in kenya
In 2011 KK changed its accounting policy of asset reporting they are now using historical figures....I think this dropped its asset book by about 1B plus in in Dec 2011....Now the losses from the hedging position were anticipated by the close of yr....this means H1 results had to be impacted by the change in a accounting policy as well as the hedging position taken last year.

The question is can KK reverse the losses in their hedging positions....This will depend with how this positions are valued....I am not a derivative guru so I wont pretend to know how its done but one thing for sure reversing a 4B hole will be a fit.

'......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
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mlennyma
#2103 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 3:14:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
At this point in time,no body seems to care about the perfomance of kk,coz puma loves the bride as is where is..only one querry!how much is the agreed dowry?
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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t-godd
#2104 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 4:40:50 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/14/2010
Posts: 28
Location: Limuru
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
guru267 wrote:
1. What will happen if Puma pays less than 17? (Kestrel has no authority to declare minimum prices)

2. Will Kenol plug their hole of losses with profits from their core business despite continuing to hedge??

3. Will the majority shareholders be comfortable selling below 17bob?? (Very possible since most got in below 4bob)

4. How long will the KK payout take as opposed to other opportunities on the NSE like HFCK??

5. With KKs tiny tiny margins would one call it a good business relative to others on the NSE??

6. Will pending court cases spook puma & other potential suitors??

7
7. If i choose not to sell below 17 am i capable of holding a private entity??

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!!


@guru didn't you alight this bus at 13?


14.. Was Up over 40%
And it is 15.50 in 7 days. 15.50 less 14 = 1.50 which is another +11% using 14 as the base. I sincerely believe Puma will pay at least 17 once the roadblocks are removed. Hoping for 20+ but no problem if there is a delay since KK makes money Applause Applause Applause despite the one-off hedge loss.


@guru267, I thought it was 25%?

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=317012#post317012

guru267 wrote:


I regret selling @ 13.85bob.. But it was at a 25% gain & i put it all into Simba that i believe will provide higher returns than puma!!

L-TOWNS OWN SINCE '90
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VituVingiSana
#2105 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 4:55:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
but no problem if there is a delay since KK makes money Applause Applause Applause despite the one-off hedge loss.


Where did you hear that the hedging loss was a ONE-OFF??
At the AGM, they clarified they stopped hedging in Feb 2012 & they do 4-month rollover hedges so the (expensive/under-water) hedges are done by 30th June. Don't stress too much Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you coz I bought your KK. And thank you for the discount Drool Drool Drool
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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youcan'tstopusnow
#2106 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:00:59 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
VituVingiSana wrote:
Don't stress too much Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you coz I bought your KK. And thank you for the discount Drool Drool Drool

Laughing out loudly
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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VituVingiSana
#2107 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:03:30 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
selah wrote:
In 2011 KK changed its accounting policy of asset reporting they are now using historical figures....I think this dropped its asset book by about 1B plus in in Dec 2011....Now the losses from the hedging position were anticipated by the close of yr....this means H1 results had to be impacted by the change in a accounting policy as well as the hedging position taken last year.

The question is can KK reverse the losses in their hedging positions....This will depend with how this positions are valued....I am not a derivative guru so I wont pretend to know how its done but one thing for sure reversing a 4B hole will be a fit.
The hole cannot be filled in 2H which means FY 2012 will show a loss less than 4bn but a large loss.
The question is... does Puma care about 'history'? The answer is no.
Puma is buying a business they understand & will probably knock off KES 1-3 off the original offer. Puma was aware of some of the hedging losses (as disclosed in the Annual Report) as of 31st Dec 2011. I am sure they knew more than we did when the initial announcement was made. The sellers are no fools either. Yes, they want to exit for political reasons coz a new gov't may not be as accommodating but not at a huge loss.

Finally, the management has an ESOP & the CEO has many options. Every KES counts!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#2108 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 5:10:48 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
mlennyma wrote:
At this point in time,no body seems to care about the perfomance of kk,coz puma loves the bride as is where is..only one querry! how much is the agreed dowry?
Bingo ;-) 17, 18, 20?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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the deal
#2109 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 6:22:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
but no problem if there is a delay since KK makes money Applause Applause Applause despite the one-off hedge loss.


Where did you hear that the hedging loss was a ONE-OFF??
At the AGM, they clarified they stopped hedging in Feb 2012 & they do 4-month rollover hedges so the (expensive/under-water) hedges are done by 30th June. Don't stress too much Shame on you Shame on you Shame on you coz I bought your KK. And thank you for the discount Drool Drool Drool

Offcourse if one looks at KK´s balance sheet under current liabilities you will see that the hedge position unwind.
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guru267
#2110 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 6:57:23 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
t-godd wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
guru267 wrote:
1. What will happen if Puma pays less than 17? (Kestrel has no authority to declare minimum prices)

2. Will Kenol plug their hole of losses with profits from their core business despite continuing to hedge??

3. Will the majority shareholders be comfortable selling below 17bob?? (Very possible since most got in below 4bob)

4. How long will the KK payout take as opposed to other opportunities on the NSE like HFCK??

5. With KKs tiny tiny margins would one call it a good business relative to others on the NSE??

6. Will pending court cases spook puma & other potential suitors??

7
7. If i choose not to sell below 17 am i capable of holding a private entity??

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!!


@guru didn't you alight this bus at 13?


14.. Was Up over 40%
And it is 15.50 in 7 days. 15.50 less 14 = 1.50 which is another +11% using 14 as the base. I sincerely believe Puma will pay at least 17 once the roadblocks are removed. Hoping for 20+ but no problem if there is a delay since KK makes money Applause Applause Applause despite the one-off hedge loss.


@guru267, I thought it was 25%?

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=317012#post317012

guru267 wrote:


I regret selling @ 13.85bob.. But it was at a 25% gain & i put it all into Simba that i believe will provide higher returns than puma!!



The 25% was strictly capital gains..

With the 40% i was factoring in dividends + capital gains + arbitrary trading of the shares!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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VituVingiSana
#2111 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 7:20:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
t-godd wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
sparkly wrote:
guru267 wrote:
1. What will happen if Puma pays less than 17? (Kestrel has no authority to declare minimum prices)

2. Will Kenol plug their hole of losses with profits from their core business despite continuing to hedge??

3. Will the majority shareholders be comfortable selling below 17bob?? (Very possible since most got in below 4bob)

4. How long will the KK payout take as opposed to other opportunities on the NSE like HFCK??

5. With KKs tiny tiny margins would one call it a good business relative to others on the NSE??

6. Will pending court cases spook puma & other potential suitors??

7
7. If i choose not to sell below 17 am i capable of holding a private entity??

FOOD FOR THOUGHT!!


@guru didn't you alight this bus at 13?


14.. Was Up over 40%
And it is 15.50 in 7 days. 15.50 less 14 = 1.50 which is another +11% using 14 as the base. I sincerely believe Puma will pay at least 17 once the roadblocks are removed. Hoping for 20+ but no problem if there is a delay since KK makes money Applause Applause Applause despite the one-off hedge loss.


@guru267, I thought it was 25%?

http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...amp;m=317012#post317012

guru267 wrote:


I regret selling @ 13.85bob.. But it was at a 25% gain & i put it all into Simba that i believe will provide higher returns than puma!!



The 25% was strictly capital gains..

With the 40% i was factoring in dividends + capital gains + arbitrary trading of the shares!

What is "arbitrary trading of the shares" & why not continue doing so?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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cnn
#2112 Posted : Thursday, September 20, 2012 7:52:57 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
Anybody making 25% must have bought into KK very late in the day,long term holders have seen minimum 50% capital gains and upto 70-80% factoring in dividends.
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gatoho
#2113 Posted : Friday, September 21, 2012 6:55:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/1/2010
Posts: 511
Location: kandara, Murang'a
cnn wrote:
Anybody making 25% must have bought into KK very late in the day,long term holders have seen minimum 50% capital gains and upto 70-80% factoring in dividends.



true, I was buying into KK for my retirement and my average was still 8.35 incl broker fees. To think i regreted the batch I got at 11 when it had touched 8.9!. Might still stick to plan and make Puma my retirement!

Now i need to get another share I just accumulate without worrying of price.. Cheapest Blue-chip?
Foresight..
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guru267
#2114 Posted : Saturday, September 22, 2012 10:57:37 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
Look at KK & Total. One day price controls (populist) come in. Now there are problems coz the firms can't pass on forex fluctuations or oil price fluctuations along in real time.


And yet in the same breath you state that "KK will continue to make money in H2 2012"..

Given your post above won't KK make larger losses than 4billion in 2012??
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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mlennyma
#2115 Posted : Saturday, September 22, 2012 2:53:30 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/21/2010
Posts: 6,183
Location: nairobi
Kk Minus puma for now is death in share value for a long time.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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VituVingiSana
#2116 Posted : Saturday, September 22, 2012 6:02:53 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
Look at KK & Total. One day price controls (populist) come in. Now there are problems coz the firms can't pass on forex fluctuations or oil price fluctuations along in real time.


And yet in the same breath you state that "KK will continue to make money in H2 2012"..

Given your post above won't KK make larger losses than 4billion in 2012??
No. Watch. Shall we reconvene when either:
1) Puma offers a sweet deal to KK's shareholders?
2) KK has a profitable 2H vs 1H loss?
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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jerry
#2117 Posted : Sunday, September 23, 2012 11:59:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
gatoho wrote:
cnn wrote:
Anybody making 25% must have bought into KK very late in the day,long term holders have seen minimum 50% capital gains and upto 70-80% factoring in dividends.



true, I was buying into KK for my retirement and my average was still 8.35 incl broker fees. To think i regreted the batch I got at 11 when it had touched 8.9!. Might still stick to plan and make Puma my retirement!

Now i need to get another share I just accumulate without worrying of price.. Cheapest Blue-chip?

How about EACables? How low can/should it go?
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Aguytrying
#2118 Posted : Monday, September 24, 2012 3:02:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
jerry wrote:
gatoho wrote:
cnn wrote:
Anybody making 25% must have bought into KK very late in the day,long term holders have seen minimum 50% capital gains and upto 70-80% factoring in dividends.



true, I was buying into KK for my retirement and my average was still 8.35 incl broker fees. To think i regreted the batch I got at 11 when it had touched 8.9!. Might still stick to plan and make Puma my retirement!

Now i need to get another share I just accumulate without worrying of price.. Cheapest Blue-chip?

How about EACables? How low can/should it go?


cables is a monkey
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mwekez@ji
#2119 Posted : Tuesday, September 25, 2012 9:10:29 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Puma completes its due diligence this week #Watch
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Jamani
#2120 Posted : Tuesday, September 25, 2012 9:36:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/12/2006
Posts: 1,554
And we have a court case settled or decided this week (not sure but I think read something like that somewhere)
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