What do you guys think is the best form of regulatory body to have in FX? A society or a limited liability company? How quickly do you envision doing this? How do you make sure decisions are made in some democratic way?

I do very much agree that you need to set up a body other than FDC to look at FX in Eastern Africa or just Kenya. If you ever need an alternative view to any matter,feel free to ask.

@toni i got the correlations and have measured them using the past records of six months and found a good relationship in the pairs regarding the currencies of commodities though at times there are some levels of volatility but the variations still are not that big,they still lie under the correlations probabilities.

@passyson you are really in with the commodities i think they are doing a good favour for you,today you are on NZD/CHF going long,i have not checked on that pair but i think since morning there was a small rally of the commodities which i hope would have given an edge over the CHF. For commodities in the morning session i went long on AUD/USD which i was looking for only 50 pips cause i think the dollar may rebound a little bit later on.I was still looking on the effect of correlation with the USD/CAD.

I think the rally of the commodities was due to the uncertanities with the crude oil which was being feared to rally( BP had confirmed shutting an oil point in georgia) but i think it would not live long as calm may return today and the dollar may rally again pending the Housing report which i suspect would not be convincing.For euro the situation i think since morning was only edging the dollar on speculation but the data of EMU on B.O.P/trade balances were negative tumbling the euro down to almost 1.47. Still waiting for the US housing market which the euro may rally about 50- 90 pips then go down to its low levels again. There is still canadian data which is due about the foreign investment securities! How do you see them?

@NGAATU

SK today is whack...

I exited NZD/CHF with 100 pips profit. I have gone short on USD/JPY @110.270...if the 110.00 suport is hit then i am home and dry :)...If not,the loss will eat into my profits for the day.





Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination

@mandlagh please I would Like you to read the post above and then if u have any thing u Want it to be clarified don't hestitate to ask plz.

@NGAATU

@all
The SK forum has really been in a mess the past few days,i hope they are improving it.How the tradind sessions guys you have really quite i suppose its because of the SK site.

@KIm 007 i suppose their was a rebound yesterday of the euro which went up about 50-115 pips against the greenback supposedly due to the economic data of inflation significance which was the PPI and the housing market numbers which were pretty not good.So in the morning going short was good for few pips of around 20 - 60 pips but there was a rebound following the PPI and Housing Data Which thrashed the USD by almost 115 pips to levels of 1.476 down from 1.4658.I hope you were with trend?

I suppose today during the morning sessions the was a rallying of crude oil from 111 per barrel to almost 115 ( nymex market) this slightly scrapped the gains made by the dollar,which simultaneously drove the commodities a little bit high( gold reached 822 an ounce from 790's yesterday).I think this was strongly determined by the tornado in florida which was not easing but sligthly caused by the economic data released. I think the situation in euro zone is not convincing at the moment as the data from key euro states are not appeasing.Infact the rallying of euro was only caused by the oil rebound rather than the economic data of U.S? Whats your take Guys?

@Passyson how are the commodities ranging?

@NGAATU

Hi Ngaatu,

Been busy,and the SK loading speed makes me think twice of logging in.

Havent been following the fundamentals too much,but I guess the marginal gains of oil and gold may momentarily temper the USD gains.

Was stopped out on my morning EUR trade (-35 pips). Currently long on GBPUSD from 1.8555,looking to exit at 1.8630-40 level. Feel cable is headed for the next resistance level of 1.8660-70 levels.

GL and GT

Taking profit on the GBP.

@Ngaatu,

check your email.

Nice evening. Am off!

@Ngaatu,Tonicasert et al...i have been busy for the last 2 days attending to personal matters so i have not really traded. Tomorrow being Friday,i MIGHT briefly enter into a viable trade from 10am-12 and then call it a day.

My favourite one will either be AUD/USD or NZD/USD...if i am trading,i will definitely keep you guys updated. GBP has been performing horrendously against the Kiwi and i might be tempted to enter into a trade but that should be for next week.

Thanks Ngaatu for the email...might drop a line or two.

Till tomorrow.


Anyone who lives within their means suffers from a lack of imagination

@all
How is the market swinging? @passyson i am seeing volatility in the comdolls what going on i suppose they have edged a little bit today against the USD

@NGAATU

@kilabe this is my 5 cent opinion.

I think the Kenyan shilling is going to weaken further if the USD is going to rally in the coming weeks.Maybe it could even reach at the level of 70/= to even 71/=.This in my opinion indicates that the Kenyan economy is still susceptible to any global shakeout and it does not have domestic economic strength to cushion itself due to its weakness of the economy.

There is tight liquidity(money circulation has been curtailed) in the market meaning that there is less money to be given to private investors and individuals so that they could invest and generate economic activities thus tight money circulation.This is also caused largely by the response of our CBK to fight the inflation and i think they have reacted by increasing the bank rate(repo rate) which means also the lending rates have to be adjusted and borrowing is made costly to individuals;you have seen many banks adjusting their lending rates.Another reason for the contraction of liquidity i think is because of the safcom I.P.O and its ripple effect after.There are still huge funds retained with some banks and also it has decreased the investor confidence a lot.

Oil prices are surging up and the cost of food is rising sharply making everything to increase twofold from transport to anything you can imagine.The inflation levels are very high at around 29.5% but i think its more than that! This has been driving foreign investors out as you have seen the performance of N.S.E as the investment environment is not that conducive though promising.This and other factors earlier in the year have made our economy to stagnate a little bit and i think the performance of most counters at N.S.E wont be performing good(it even lost ksh 200billion!!) until the end of this year when probably the economy would have corrected itself and would be picking up again.
I don't expect the N.S.E to perform well with an exception of few counters like financial. So i should be expecting the weakness of the shilling may continue to the 70/= unless the U.S weakness that could boost the domestic currency against the USD but KSH itself at the moment with the prevailing economic situation cannot help itself much.





@NGAATU