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First World Markets Shenanigans
slick
#181 Posted : Thursday, April 30, 2020 11:39:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
eangaga wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
slick wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
USA economy shrinks by 4.8% in Q1


Crazy stuff.US GDP shrinks but stocks rise in today's trading as Fed money printing keeps markets elevated.Q2 GDP will be the disaster to record levels possibly worse than the 1930s Great Depression.Fed keeps Fed funds rate at 0-0.25% and will keep the same pace of QE infinity money printing scheme.


The collapse of stocks is coming,the rally is not sustainable.
Jerome Powell:Unemployment rate likely to surge into double digits


I am not sure what these people know.I am just a common guy and I work for one of the companies in this stock market. Our company I understand. We make a product, it is a useful product. We make sales and make profit. Even during this time we have been working. I say this to say that the valuation at the Stock exchange are not just bubbles...

Have you noticed much of the portfolios have regained most loses from covid?


Well stock market had been in the biggest bubble in US history (bond market also in largest bubble in history too).The best indicator to measure valuations is the Buffet Indicator that takes total market capitalization represented by the broadest Wilshire 5000 index vs GDP.When this ratio hits 100% and above its a bubble and had hit its highest level of just over 150% before the Covid-19 sell off which is utterly ridiculous.I dont think Kenya's NSE mkt cap to GDP has ever gone above 50%



Of course almost all this historical overvaluation is based on the amount the Fed has printed.Since 2008 GFC to pre covid-19,the Fed more than quintupled the base money supply and the stock market represented by S&P 500 has more than quintupled also pre coronavirus.During Covid-19 crisis the Fed just printed more multiple trillions both on balance sheet and especially off balance sheet.Its this money printing (not fundamentals) that has resulted in the gains in the last few weeks.
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
Ericsson
#182 Posted : Friday, May 01, 2020 7:20:26 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,699
Location: NAIROBI
slick wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
Stocks sink on economic outlook


Yeap.At least today thus far stocks have faced reality and sunk due to the 3.84 million jobs lost in the last 7 days.In prior weeks where even more than 5 million jobs were being lost,stocks rallied as investors knew the Fed will print more money to buy all asset classes including stocks to offset job losses.

Who knows the day is young.Equities may stage a major comeback as Plunge Protection Team buys equities in mass to prevent a broader sell off.Very volatile market with wild up and down swings


Let's see how stocks will behave next week.
Alot of data will be released,like the suppliers managers index,jobless rate
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#183 Posted : Friday, May 01, 2020 7:25:31 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,699
Location: NAIROBI
slick wrote:
eangaga wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
slick wrote:
Ericsson wrote:
USA economy shrinks by 4.8% in Q1


Crazy stuff.US GDP shrinks but stocks rise in today's trading as Fed money printing keeps markets elevated.Q2 GDP will be the disaster to record levels possibly worse than the 1930s Great Depression.Fed keeps Fed funds rate at 0-0.25% and will keep the same pace of QE infinity money printing scheme.


The collapse of stocks is coming,the rally is not sustainable.
Jerome Powell:Unemployment rate likely to surge into double digits


I am not sure what these people know.I am just a common guy and I work for one of the companies in this stock market. Our company I understand. We make a product, it is a useful product. We make sales and make profit. Even during this time we have been working. I say this to say that the valuation at the Stock exchange are not just bubbles...

Have you noticed much of the portfolios have regained most loses from covid?


Well stock market had been in the biggest bubble in US history (bond market also in largest bubble in history too).The best indicator to measure valuations is the Buffet Indicator that takes total market capitalization represented by the broadest Wilshire 5000 index vs GDP.When this ratio hits 100% and above its a bubble and had hit its highest level of just over 150% before the Covid-19 sell off which is utterly ridiculous.I dont think Kenya's NSE mkt cap to GDP has ever gone above 50%



Of course almost all this historical overvaluation is based on the amount the Fed has printed.Since 2008 GFC to pre covid-19,the Fed more than quintupled the base money supply and the stock market represented by S&P 500 has more than quintupled also pre coronavirus.During Covid-19 crisis the Fed just printed more multiple trillions both on balance sheet and especially off balance sheet.Its this money printing (not fundamentals) that has resulted in the gains in the last few weeks.


Do we have credible figures on Kenya's GDP.Here its what's the reality on the ground
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#184 Posted : Friday, May 01, 2020 4:12:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,699
Location: NAIROBI
UK stocks slide as Trump threatens china
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
NewMoney
#185 Posted : Friday, May 01, 2020 10:01:19 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/1/2019
Posts: 170
Location: Nairobi
Shares of Tesla dropped as much as 12% Friday after CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the company's shares are priced "too high."

the guy is going nuts today, also said he's selling 'almost all' of his physical belongings
slick
#186 Posted : Wednesday, May 06, 2020 9:15:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
NewMoney wrote:
Shares of Tesla dropped as much as 12% Friday after CEO Elon Musk tweeted that the company's shares are priced "too high."

the guy is going nuts today, also said he's selling 'almost all' of his physical belongings


HAHA!@NewMoney.I have been posting on the wazua thread Tesla Stock lamenting that Tesla stock is a bubble and way too overvalued and ironically Musk agrees with me.Musk is nuts but it seems its the eccentric behavior of a genius.Musk has always courted controversy with impulsive twitter rants and uninhibited loud mouth talk like during earnings calls.Lets review a few of his mad rants







In 2018,Musk found himself in trouble when he insulted Vernon Unsworth, a Briton who has lived for many years in Thailand by calling him a pedophile



Yet again in 2018,Musk deliberately misled investors and pumped up Tesla stock by his infamous tweet "Funding Secured" and was forced to pay a 20 million fine for stock manipulation to prevent him being completely forced out from Tesla.He was forced out as Chairman but retained his CEO seat once he paid the fine



Musk caused as stir again in 2018 during an earnings call where he put off a reporters questions terming them as bonehead questions.Unbecoming behaviour of a CEO that led to the equity sell off



Elon again rattled feathers when he publicly smoked marijuana on a Joe Rogan podcast which investors felt was uncouth of a CEO also resulted in the stock tanking





The Tesla board has been trying to reign in on Musk public spats by having him seek approval from the board before posting or talking in public but it seems it hasnt stopped the nutty CEO from doing his thing Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

No doubt Tesla electrical vehicles are way better than competition but Musk's eccentric nature and the Tesla weak and possibly fraudulent financials make Tesla stock the most heavily shorted and most volatile large cap stock in the US stock market with even billionaire investors either touting the stock will hit 15,000 and other billionaires lamenting the stock will collapse to zero



Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#187 Posted : Wednesday, May 06, 2020 4:05:09 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
YIKES!!US private sector loses 20.2 million jobs in April.Unprecedented in history.10 years of job gains lost in 1 month

Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
amorphous
#188 Posted : Wednesday, May 06, 2020 4:25:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/15/2019
Posts: 677
Location: planet earth
Slick,
my beans are growing very nicely
and it has started raining nyweee so maji fresh fresh clean no brain-destroying fluoride from the municipals tuko nayo
meanwhile mangolofa zinapanda shwiiiii. Now that is what you call a pension! Not those tu-fake 2 dollar bills that await retirees at SSI.
Na chakula ndio hio twannnng GMO free!
I warned cheps 20 years ago that these days were coming but they said huyu tunjamaa tumechizi.
Sasa wanajikaanga kwa mavuta yao.
I feel sad for those mu-buddies I left pursuing the American Nightmare on Wall Street eti Brookes Brothers suits.
Wafi?
The time for them to come home and plant beans is NOW otherwise wamegwisia kugwisia!
Nimesema!
Age and family mellows us all over time
slick
#189 Posted : Wednesday, May 06, 2020 4:37:42 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
slick wrote:
YIKES!!US private sector loses 20.2 million jobs in April.Unprecedented in history.10 years of job gains lost in 1 month




Despite this disastrous figure,stocks open higher.How now??Its all about the Fed.The market expects the Fed to print even more money to buy stocks so lets buy stocks.Well the horrible figure was priced in so its not a market shock
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
Ericsson
#190 Posted : Friday, May 08, 2020 4:53:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,699
Location: NAIROBI
slick wrote:
slick wrote:
YIKES!!US private sector loses 20.2 million jobs in April.Unprecedented in history.10 years of job gains lost in 1 month



Despite this disastrous figure,stocks open higher.How now??Its all about the Fed.The market expects the Fed to print even more money to buy stocks so lets buy stocks.Well the horrible figure was priced in so its not a market shock


Unemployment rate at 14.7% the highest since records started been kept in 1948
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#191 Posted : Monday, May 11, 2020 3:24:01 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,699
Location: NAIROBI
Saudi Arabia will raise value added tax (VAT) from 5 percent to 15 percent starting from July 1 and suspend giving out cost of living allowance starting from June 1, as part of the efforts to mitigate the impact of the #coronavirus pandemic.
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
Ericsson
#192 Posted : Monday, May 11, 2020 3:28:52 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,699
Location: NAIROBI
Qatar Airways says it will be surprised if travel demand returns to pre-pandemic levels before 2023-24
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
obiero
#193 Posted : Monday, May 11, 2020 7:24:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,520
Location: nairobi
Ericsson wrote:
Qatar Airways says it will be surprised if travel demand returns to pre-pandemic levels before 2023-24

The level must go down but people will travel

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
slick
#194 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2020 5:24:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
FED TO START BUYING JUNK CORPORATE BONDS FROM ZOMBIE COMPANIES

In violation of free market mechanics where dubious firms go bankrupt during a recession,the Fed is now printing money to buy junk corporate bonds and the ETFS that track these junk bonds.

To make things worse,the Fed is outsourcing the bond buying scheme to Blackrock,the world's largest asset management firm with 7.43 trillion USD of assets under management.Blackrock has several bond funds and its obvious they will use the Fed money to buy their own bond funds making even larger profits for Blackrock.Seriously.More billions for billionaires



Imagine if Opus Dei started buying corporate bonds.Should Patrick Njoroge do that?
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
whiteowl
#195 Posted : Tuesday, May 12, 2020 7:35:43 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 4/16/2014
Posts: 1,420
Location: Bohemian Grove
slick wrote:
FED TO START BUYING JUNK CORPORATE BONDS FROM ZOMBIE COMPANIES

In violation of free market mechanics where dubious firms go bankrupt during a recession,the Fed is now printing money to buy junk corporate bonds and the ETFS that track these junk bonds.

To make things worse,the Fed is outsourcing the bond buying scheme to Blackrock,the world's largest asset management firm with 7.43 trillion USD of assets under management.Blackrock has several bond funds and its obvious they will use the Fed money to buy their own bond funds making even larger profits for Blackrock.Seriously.More billions for billionaires



Imagine if Opus Dei started buying corporate bonds.Should Patrick Njoroge do that?


He can't print any money. You need to be a reserve currency to print money out of thin air and survive.
Ericsson
#196 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2020 8:44:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,699
Location: NAIROBI
Global stocks rout after Fed chairman Jerome Powell comments
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
slick
#197 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2020 11:43:46 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
whiteowl wrote:
slick wrote:
FED TO START BUYING JUNK CORPORATE BONDS FROM ZOMBIE COMPANIES

In violation of free market mechanics where dubious firms go bankrupt during a recession,the Fed is now printing money to buy junk corporate bonds and the ETFS that track these junk bonds.

To make things worse,the Fed is outsourcing the bond buying scheme to Blackrock,the world's largest asset management firm with 7.43 trillion USD of assets under management.Blackrock has several bond funds and its obvious they will use the Fed money to buy their own bond funds making even larger profits for Blackrock.Seriously.More billions for billionaires



Imagine if Opus Dei started buying corporate bonds.Should Patrick Njoroge do that?


He can't print any money. You need to be a reserve currency to print money out of thin air and survive.


Spot on @whiteowl.Developed nations especially the US with the reserve currency can print trillions to bail themselves out while third world countries have massive currency devaluation and possible hyperinflation if they take the money printing route.First world nations are bending the rules of economics but eventually it will catch up with them.USD is only strong relative to other major fiat currencies that are also being printed to ludicrous levels but what really matters is the Dollar purchasing power which has declined over 97% since 1913 when the Fed was created ie 1 USD in 1913 is less than 3 cents now robbing the purchasing power of savers



Just as a joke.To bail out KQ,they should issue new corporate bonds and Opus Dei creates new KES and buys them just like how US airlines are being bailed out
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#198 Posted : Thursday, May 14, 2020 12:18:07 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
Ericsson wrote:
Global stocks rout after Fed chairman Jerome Powell comments


Jerome's comments were at least realistic.There will be no immediate recovery or what US investors call V shaped recovery.Until a covid-19 vaccine which is possibly 12-18 months away is developed (considering that there has never been any successful vaccine developed for other coronaviruses strains) or viable anti-viral drug is availed,the threat of Covid-19 remains a significant global health and economic threat.

US stock market is living up to the 3 phases of stock market action during a recession ie

1)Liquidation Phase-An event eg Covid-19 or real estate burst in 2008 or October 1929 crash results in mass panic and steep violent sell off.The liquidation phase occurred in March 2020 where the S&P 500 recorded its fastest decline in history

2)Hope Phase-Fed intervenes and prints a mammoth amount of dollars to buy asset classes and stock and other asset markets stage a dead cat bounce.April 2020 saw the largest rally of US stocks since the 1931 hope phase of the great depression as Fed injected trillions to purchase all asset classes.People assume the worst is over and buy back stocks in this false rally

3)Bankruptcy phase-Reality finally dawns on investors that the recession will last longer than expected.Bankruptcies especially of small and medium enterprises that did not benefit from Fed money printing bailouts start to go under.Retailers and restaurant chains in the US have already started to file for bankruptcy then the real crisis begins and stocks stage a long drawn out decline just like the 1931 hope phase collapsed into a decade long depression in the 1930s





US markets maybe approaching the end of the hope phase and the beginning of the bankruptcy phase though stocks could still rally as Fed money printing is a exceptionally powerful manipulative engine.It remains to be seen when the real phase 3 crisis will begin
Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
slick
#199 Posted : Sunday, May 17, 2020 6:08:18 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/1/2017
Posts: 288
Gold and Silver as the investment strategy of this decade as developed world central bank multi-trillion money printing madness degenerates into ludicrous proportions.Billionaire investors,hedge funds,wall street banks and other asset management entities pile into the ultimate safe heaven from inevitable mass inflation that the money creation insanity will create.












The largest investment bank in the US ie Goldman Sachs also recommends the buying of gold



Contrarian Investor and Trader.Advocate of free markets,limited government interference in the economy and sound money
Ericsson
#200 Posted : Sunday, May 17, 2020 7:14:02 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/4/2009
Posts: 10,699
Location: NAIROBI
slick wrote:
Gold and Silver as the investment strategy of this decade as developed world central bank multi-trillion money printing madness degenerates into ludicrous proportions.Billionaire investors,hedge funds,wall street banks and other asset management entities pile into the ultimate safe heaven from inevitable mass inflation that the money creation insanity will create.












The largest investment bank in the US ie Goldman Sachs also recommends the buying of gold





Tell opus Dei to start stocking up on gold
Wealth is built through a relatively simple equation
Wealth=Income + Investments - Lifestyle
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