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Thoughts on TPS Serena
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VituVingiSana
#91 Posted : Wednesday, January 17, 2018 12:55:08 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
mkate_nusu wrote:
Aguytrying wrote:
kimanimsc wrote:
Courtesy
HY 2016

Sales 2.656219b vs. 2.671950b -0.589%
Profit before interest, depreciation and taxation 170.411m vs. 182.432m -6.589%
Net interest cost [54.781m] vs. [108.005m] -49.279%
Depreciation on property, plant and equipment [189.786m] vs. [213.881m] -11.266%
Loss before income tax [74.156m] vs. [139.454m] -46.824%
Loss after taxation [57.627m] vs. [97.284m] -40.764%
Loss attributable to equity holders of the company [77.593m] vs. [112.010m] -30.727%
EPS [0.43] vs. [0.61] -29.508%
Currency translation differences [56.461m] vs. [358.713m] -84.260%
Equity 9.571263b vs. 9.956492b -3.869%
Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period 12.647m vs. [318.273m] +103.974%


This company has had a rough time, the sector is brutal, so too have the shareholders.
Lets see how peak season turns out. But at 18 its going at a throw away price. Management is pushing for a rebound towards Q4 2016. with july - october peak season key to this.


@Aguytrying ftgh which posted better results is trading at 4 bob why recommend people to throw away 18 bob at this loss making entity?

18 months later it is at 35/- ... and I expect a good FY 2018 though FY 2017 was challenging given our politics.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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VituVingiSana
#92 Posted : Wednesday, January 17, 2018 12:57:22 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
nzalela wrote:
I love how the market brings out divergent thoughts. One man's meat is another man's poison. Well I am buying loads of this one every month till i hit my maximum exposure. It is actually one of the stocks that I am really confident in, I wouldn't loose sleep even when it goes to single digits as some may prophesy.

Applause Applause Applause The payoff ;-) and I expect even more as Serena Nairobi gets ready after the expansion!

http://www.chwezitravell...eastern-africa-in-2018/

Plus Serena/TPSEA has other properties in EAC and Tanzania (GDP growth) is expected to grow faster than KE in 2018. It's not all rosy but it has a solid reputation.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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lochaz-index
#93 Posted : Wednesday, January 17, 2018 8:32:43 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/18/2014
Posts: 1,127
VituVingiSana wrote:
heri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Aguy - I am increasing my position slowly. Are you? I like their management over the years even during tough times. Scarce offers at 17 though.


@Aguy and VVS, i salute you guys. 100% return in one year!

When many people including me did not even give TPS a second look. Impressive

Asante. I wish I had bought more but... I like TPSEA coz of the solid management, brand name and steady expansion. There's debt but TPSEA has managed to manage the debt and has substantial income in forex.

Quality Management. Depressed share price [IMHO] for the wrong reasons looked at in the medium-long term.

Waiting for the 40s I make my exit then scout for the next re-loading period. Nice ride.
The main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many people as possible.
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VituVingiSana
#94 Posted : Monday, January 29, 2018 12:25:11 PM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.

TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ebenyo
#95 Posted : Monday, January 29, 2018 6:14:01 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 2,016
Location: Kitale
VituVingiSana wrote:
37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.

TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments.



Whats your current ABP?
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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VituVingiSana
#96 Posted : Tuesday, January 30, 2018 8:05:21 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Ebenyo wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.

TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments.



Whats your current ABP?

I don't bother with "Average Buying Price" since it matters little.
You should look at a price point and make a decision at that price point.

If one looked at ABP [eg 5/-] for Safaricom and sold at 10/- coz it was up 100% without considering what the performance and future of Safaricom is then what's the point of analysis?

Therefore, what matters to me is whether TPS at 37 is undervalued, fair or overvalued regardless of my ABP.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Aguytrying
#97 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 11:08:57 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
heri wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
@Aguy - I am increasing my position slowly. Are you? I like their management over the years even during tough times. Scarce offers at 17 though.


@Aguy and VVS, i salute you guys. 100% return in one year!

When many people including me did not even give TPS a second look. Impressive

Asante. I wish I had bought more but... I like TPSEA coz of the solid management, brand name and steady expansion. There's debt but TPSEA has managed to manage the debt and has substantial income in forex.

Quality Management. Depressed share price [IMHO] for the wrong reasons looked at in the medium-long term.


Applause Applause congrats comrade @VVS! This share and KK have turned me into a real long term investor! Im happy yet not suprised when i see it at 36.00. I bought large chunks especially below 20.00 over a period of >3 years (seemed like an eternity) coz i trusted in the management. Management, management, management. The other factors that are controllable will take care of themselves
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, February 05, 2018 11:18 PM | Reason: Not specified
Aguytrying
#98 Posted : Monday, February 05, 2018 11:17:59 PM
Rank: Elder

Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
VituVingiSana wrote:
37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.

TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments.


Neither am I. There's a comfort in holding a stock with good management and prospects that is hard to explain.
This turnaround started when the al shabaab threats were neutralised, the price was still low then and for a long time after that. The rise was then inevitable. With less politics and emphasis on tourism (given the country's debt and forex situation- it needs all the foreign exchange it can get, i hope the gov sees that) the glory days of TPS may be back.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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  | | Edit by user: Monday, February 05, 2018 11:19 PM | Reason: Not specified
VituVingiSana
#99 Posted : Tuesday, February 06, 2018 8:14:56 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,346
Location: Nairobi
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.

TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments.


Neither am I. There's a comfort in holding a stock with good management and prospects that is hard to explain.
This turnaround started when the al shabaab threats were neutralised, the price was still low then and for a long time after that. The rise was then inevitable. With less politics and emphasis on tourism (given the country's debt and forex situation- it needs all the foreign exchange it can get, i hope the gov sees that) the glory days of TPS may be back.

A major consideration is the SLOW and STEADY expansion in services/revenues/facilities, etc without taking on a huge amount of debt (vs revenue/assets/profits)...

I believe the hospitality sector will grow BUT in the face of competition TPS needs to be ready to:
1) Take on new properties, in Nairobi, under a franchise model esp in Westlands, Runda or Karen. At the coast, in Diani, Nyali or Mombasa's CBD/Kizingo.
2) Keep on expanding regionally.
3) Operate some 3 & 4-star ("Serena-Lite") locations using a different brand but using the buying power and management skills from larger properties.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Ebenyo
#100 Posted : Tuesday, February 06, 2018 10:12:20 AM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 4/4/2016
Posts: 2,016
Location: Kitale
Aguytrying wrote:
VituVingiSana wrote:
37 and counting. That said, I am not a seller at this price. I remain optimistic that TPS/Serena will continue growing its portfolio over time in a slow but steady manner while keeping debt under control.

TPS has borrowed to expand Nairobi Serena but the expansion was long overdue and should generate enough - ceteris paribus - cashflow to cover debt payments.


Neither am I. There's a comfort in holding a stock with good management and prospects that is hard to explain.
This turnaround started when the al shabaab threats were neutralised, the price was still low then and for a long time after that. The rise was then inevitable. With less politics and emphasis on tourism (given the country's debt and forex situation- it needs all the foreign exchange it can get, i hope the gov sees that) the glory days of TPS may be back.




Your thoughts are good.
But i feel its good as long term investors to know how our investments are doing.
Towards the goal of financial freedom
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