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Time to enter KQ?
jerry
#181 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 10:46:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/29/2006
Posts: 2,570
underweight wrote:
Hi wazuans. Am thinking of exiting KQ today at 40 (bought at 32.5-32.75 on 7th Apr) n buy either KenyaRe or KenolKobil. Wat is your take on this? Cheers!

=>I would go for KK in bits. When are r we getting the kk dividends?
The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
MaichBlack
#182 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 10:49:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,467
underweight wrote:
Hi wazuans. Am thinking of exiting KQ today at 40 (bought at 32.5-32.75 on 7th Apr) n buy either KenyaRe or KenolKobil. Wat is your take on this? Cheers!

I can't help you here. Like @vvs and WB I am a long term investor. I don't like making money for brokers. Out of the 17.5% you'll make, the broker will chew approx. 4%. On the hand, speculators will tell you 13.5% is not bad in a month. Actually, it is not bad if you can replicate it every month. I would be happy to do 13.5% a month consistently. The problem with speculation is making 13.5%, losing 14%, making 11%, losing 10%,... In the final analysis it becomes a zero sum game.

There are some questions you need to ask yourself:

Are you an investor or a speculator? Why did you buy KQ? Are those reasons still valid? Why do you want to buy KenyaRe/Kenokobil? From your analysis, are they likely to outperform KQ in the time span you are planning to hold them? If yes, by how much? etc. etc.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
StatMeister
#183 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 10:49:42 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
underweight wrote:
@StatMeister am for the suggestion that U panic on KQ buy more of KenyaRe


@UW, you might have a point, but KQ should stag at around 42-43, you going to lose on that, and by the time you can buy KenRe, it will be settled at 9.5-10, and then you'll not so sure whether you want to buy it.

But again, it all depends on your scale of ops - if you'll investing 100k, you can sell 2500 KQ and buy 10,000 KenRe (viable for trading vols), but if its 10m, relax, you must sell 250k KQ and buy 1m KenRe - you'll be 100% market making for 5 days!
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
trizher
#184 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 10:58:22 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 95
Location: Tikrit - IRAQ
jerry wrote:
underweight wrote:
Hi wazuans. Am thinking of exiting KQ today at 40 (bought at 32.5-32.75 on 7th Apr) n buy either KenyaRe or KenolKobil. Wat is your take on this? Cheers!

=>I would go for KK in bits. When are r we getting the kk dividends?


Underweight relax a little bit......results in a moon so dont sell unless u need the cash like now now.
...We do it for the $$$$!!
the deal
#185 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 11:01:53 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
The movement on KQ is Speculative...end year results are out next month...so guys are taking positions...Air Arabia announced 1Q loss in 2011 check Capital business.
underweight
#186 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 3:24:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/25/2009
Posts: 184
Location: For now El-Fashier - Darfur
Planning to exit KQ tomorow if it touches 42.00. That will be a whooping 25% gain in a month commission excluded! Isn't that a wonderful return for a trader?
"A bad decision made now is beta that a good one made later!!"
StatMeister
#187 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 3:32:12 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
underweight wrote:
Planning to exit KQ tomorow if it touches 42.00. That will be a whooping 25% gain in a month commission excluded! Isn't that a wonderful return for a trader?


@UW, why take 42 when you can sit tight for another 1 month and get 50+? Plus, when you sell this, what else will you buy?
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
underweight
#188 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 3:40:24 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/25/2009
Posts: 184
Location: For now El-Fashier - Darfur
@statmeister from 42 to 50 is a 15% gain comms exclude. There are many bargain that can give that return in a month's time. Just look around and open your eyes!! Even the BBK after split and Q1 announcement can make it move or speculate on the dead access kenya Should it cross the Kshs 7.00 mark to pick the luggage!!
"A bad decision made now is beta that a good one made later!!"
StatMeister
#189 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 3:57:30 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
underweight wrote:
@statmeister from 42 to 50 is a 15% gain comms exclude. There are many bargain that can give that return in a month's time. Just look around and open your eyes!! Even the BBK after split and Q1 announcement can make it move or speculate on the dead access kenya Should it cross the Kshs 7.00 mark to pick the luggage!!


Am saying you hold (19%) rather than sell @42 then rebuy @42 (15%)

As you have pointed out, there are opportunities that can (not will) give a similar return, so why change?
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
StatMeister
#190 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 4:06:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/23/2010
Posts: 868
Location: La Islas Galápagos
StatMeister wrote:
underweight wrote:
@statmeister from 42 to 50 is a 15% gain comms exclude. There are many bargain that can give that return in a month's time. Just look around and open your eyes!! Even the BBK after split and Q1 announcement can make it move or speculate on the dead access kenya Should it cross the Kshs 7.00 mark to pick the luggage!!


Am saying you hold (19%) rather than sell @42 then rebuy @42 (15%)

As you have pointed out, there are opportunities that can (not will) give a similar return, so why change?


StatMeister wrote:
underweight wrote:
@StatMeister am for the suggestion that U panic on KQ buy more of KenyaRe


@UW, you might have a point, but KQ should stag at around 42-43, you going to lose on that, and by the time you can buy KenRe, it will be settled at 9.5-10, and then you'll not so sure whether you want to buy it.


@UW, this was just this morning, you would already have missed the KenRe bus. Thats one opportunity varnished . . .
A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
VituVingiSana
#191 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 5:25:26 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
Well... I like KQ's chances [high fuel prices WILL hurt] but they can pass on costs in Africa [no competition or competition also suffering].

I think KQ will cut some Africa flights but using smaller planes or fewer frequencies to match lower demand after fares are raised even higher.

On the other hand, will the other African airlines suffer enough to go out of business?

Ethiopia is going through tough times but ET seems to be doing OK. On the other hand if ET went down [or cut back] then KQ can jump in!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
ProverB
#192 Posted : Thursday, May 05, 2011 5:42:39 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
smile Back in time to dump!!! i thought i'd be stuck at 34.00.. nicely done..
consider again post june 4th. Arguably..better year than last but even so.. market has hurt other way reliably better performers.
its wise to note majority holders are sentimentally attached here.

Nice return. Back to financials..smile
..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
youcan'tstopusnow
#193 Posted : Friday, May 06, 2011 6:53:42 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
ProverB, you expect financials to move then? The brilliant first quarter results didn't do shit for them. Ama you are talking long term?
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
the deal
#194 Posted : Friday, May 06, 2011 7:21:11 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
There is one thing i've come to learn about the Kenyan Market...there is always a delayed response to corporate action...i will attribute that to slow flow of information...it has saved me several times i.e my recent foray into the cursed Ken Re...so BANKS will rally accordings...the Big caps i mean not sure of akina DTK...CFC...etc..
mwanahisa
#195 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2011 2:02:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
seketes wrote:
i will trade it @60 before end month qoute me

@seketes, is it time to quote you or which month did you mean?

On a more serious note, I once asked a question about the cash flow hedges KQ had in place at the Half year position on which it had unrealised losses. Can anyone help out on this one - VVS, the deal, Horton, ProverB, guru267, stocksmaster, hisah, QW, kizee1 et al, where are you all at?
the deal
#196 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2011 6:58:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Mwanahisa most of the 1H CFH losses have been written back in 2H since oil was above $90/barrel add to that the weak KSh $ dominatd revenue xchanged into Ksh=massive forex gains but thats offset kidogo by US$ dominated loans...they will do well despite a disastrous 3Q but problem is they want money for the Plains...
mwanahisa
#197 Posted : Friday, May 20, 2011 7:21:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
the deal wrote:
@Mwanahisa most of the 1H CFH losses have been written back in 2H since oil was above $90/barrel add to that the weak KSh $ dominatd revenue xchanged into Ksh=massive forex gains but thats offset kidogo by US$ dominated loans...they will do well despite a disastrous 3Q but problem is they want money for the Plains...


@the deal, I am not sure whether these related to fuel. KQ reported realized losses of 51 million shs on fuel derivatives and another 20 million shs in fair value losses on fuel derivatives. If these losses were on fuel, I would have expected them to be captured in either of the two items, or am I reading it wrong?
mwanahisa
#198 Posted : Saturday, May 21, 2011 4:35:57 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Are there no takers (other than the deal) to my question on Post 195 above?
VituVingiSana
#199 Posted : Saturday, May 21, 2011 8:52:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,134
Location: Nairobi
@mwanahisa - I am not ignoring you but prefer to just wait 2 weeks to see the results!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#200 Posted : Sunday, May 22, 2011 9:43:50 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
@mwanahisa - I am not ignoring you but prefer to just wait 2 weeks to see the results!

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