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Jubilee Insurance a buy @ 190?
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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I think Jubilee will post not less than 50% increase in end year EPS..assuming a 50% increase in end year EPS that will bring the end year PE to 6.9(190/27.5) which is cheap considering most financials are trading above the PE of 12...Madam Guru what do you say...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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Madam G gave this one a thumbs up way back
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/24/2010 Posts: 846 Location: KENYA
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@guru. This thread was specially designed to pull you out of hiding. Please oblige us. On to you.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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the deal wrote:I think Jubilee will post not less than 50% increase in end year EPS..assuming a 50% increase in end year EPS that will bring the end year PE to 6.9(190/27.5) which is cheap considering most financials are trading above the PE of 12...Madam Guru what do you say... Insurance companies on NSE trade at a much lower pe than financials. I have never known why. Jubilee is a real blue chip. If it will post full year results like shown above, we should a price of around KES 250
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:I think Jubilee will post not less than 50% increase in end year EPS..assuming a 50% increase in end year EPS that will bring the end year PE to 6.9(190/27.5) which is cheap considering most financials are trading above the PE of 12...Madam Guru what do you say... @the deal I must have missed this thread... my sentiments on Jubilee are extremely bullish... You may or may not be aware that Jubilee has 5billion invested in the NSE and we all know how this year has been going on the market... @PKoli there are only 3 insurance firms on the NSE and their P/E's are the most spread apart.. Pan Africa is trading with a P/E of over 20 Kenya re is trading with a P/E of 5 Jubilee is trading with a P/E of 11 with Jubilee's sound management there is no reason why it should not be valued the same as Pan Africa is seeing as they give a bonus share almost every year with dividends and its not a Kenya re.. To me JHL is worth 300bob and i know value will be unlocked soon Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Member Joined: 8/17/2010 Posts: 116
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JHL have only 49.5m Shares & most of them are with top 10 shareholders.you will not get your price whenever you want to sell it. so if you get this share at lower price of Kshs 3 to 5 then you buy it.I bought today @187.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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KIRTI wrote:JHL have only 49.5m Shares & most of them are with top 10 shareholders.you will not get your price whenever you want to sell it. so if you get this share at lower price of Kshs 3 to 5 then you buy it.I bought today @187.
Lucky you..i'm going in tomorrow...Jubilee is the ultimate blue chip on the NSE...That balance sheet is fat...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:KIRTI wrote:JHL have only 49.5m Shares & most of them are with top 10 shareholders.you will not get your price whenever you want to sell it. so if you get this share at lower price of Kshs 3 to 5 then you buy it.I bought today @187.
Lucky you..i'm going in tomorrow...Jubilee is the ultimate blue chip on the NSE...That balance sheet is fat... @the deal @KIRTI welcome to the club...  the market has really undervalued this counter on the basis of a low interim dividend but i have confidence in a full year dividend of 5 shillings plus a bonus share... so 2011 here i come... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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I love Jubilee and believe it is a fantastic company. I have actually held the counter for over 10 years and it has been a major stabilizing force within my long term portfolio.
Over the years, I have beeen ploughing back profits from speculative activities into the counter. Conversely when markets fall, I sell it to buy those shares that are really beaten down. I have taken losses in such instances on Jubilee, only to recoup them several times over. A case in point is last year when I sold it and bought Mumias. It has therefore been very good insurance (note the term) in the portfolio.
As a short term play you are unlikely to go far with it. So get in ONLY if you are prepared to hang in there.
And by the way g267 - I can bet there will be no bonus issue declared from 2010 results. They already issued one this year!
Having said that I expect to price to climb upwards steadily but not at the rate at which the banks do.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@mwanahisa and what stops them giving another bonus this year... the company paid 1bob interim dividend with a 8bob EPS... it most likely looks like they will pay 5bob for the full year.... If the directors dare pay 5bob dividend with an EPS of over 20 and not issue bonnus shares they will have to face the WRATH of the shareholders... And besides Jubilee is trying to increase its paid up capital and the easiest way is to issue bonuses every year.... it also helps to avoid a split which i know jubilee doesnt want... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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guru267 wrote:@mwanahisa and what stops them giving another bonus this year... the company paid 1bob interim dividend with a 8bob EPS... it most likely looks like they will pay 5bob for the full year....
If the directors dare pay 5bob dividend with an EPS of over 20 and not issue bonnus shares they will have to face the WRATH of the shareholders...
And besides Jubilee is trying to increase its paid up capital and the easiest way is to issue bonuses every year.... it also helps to avoid a split which i know jubilee doesnt want... I will stick with my CiC. I bought at an average price of KES 25 and this year I got dividend of KES 1.75 per piece. I expect faster growth on eps and dividends than jubilee
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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As I stated before, I have been a long-term shareholder in this company and have gotten to understand how the board operates. We have been shouting ourselves hoarse over their dividend policy for ages and little happens. The same thing goes for a share split which we have been pushing for at least the last 4 years.
The Chairman just laughs these off. He is a great guy, I have to admit - doesn't even accept to receive Director's fees for his services.
Given the good performance of the company, most folks just let it go. Indeed the issue of dividend and share split are no longer raised with as much vehemence as they used to be. Bonuses are declared when the BoD deems fit and we have come to accept that.
I cannot recall when Jubilee issued bonus shares in a row. But I bet there will be a small increase in the dividend. However, I have been wrong before, so you can hold out some hope.
An interesting titbit is that the share like many Aga Khan companies is held very tightly (almost religiously) by members of the Ismailia community. Their shares along with those of the Aga Khan affiliates are enough to quell any revolt among small shareholders.
Anyone interested in the company long term, just buy the share. Even with a low dividend and no prospect of a bonus, it is a GREAT share. After all a bonus doesn't alter the intrinsic value of a share one iota. Should they declare a bonus, well that will be a BONUS. Dear me, did I just use that word again?!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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@Mwanahisa,
Your point has been well stated. In 2004, when a friend convinced me to buy ARM, it was just tarding at about KES 20. I was convinced of good prospects, I bought about 15,000 shares and sold when the price went to 44. I was then at Nyaga stockbroker. My colleague kept on adding since she had a strong conviction of the strategic direction the company was taking. she now has about 40,000 shares of ARM.
I think Jubilee could grow to price of 500 in a few years if the current momentum and management team keeps on with their strategy.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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I think most people underestimate Jubilee..i took time and read their AR and i was amazed how much meat to the bone does their balance sheet have...this guys own 25% stake of Bujagali Energy Uganda a 250MW power project..that project comes on stream in 2011..i expect it to impact Jubilee's bottom line by 2H 2011..dont forget their huge stakes in DTBK and TPS Serena...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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the deal wrote:I think most people underestimate Jubilee..i took time and read their AR and i was amazed how much meat to the bone does their balance sheet have...this guys own 25% stake of Bujagali Energy Uganda a 250MW power project..that project comes on stream in 2011..i expect it to impact Jubilee's bottom line by 2H 2011..dont forget their huge stakes in DTBK and TPS Serena... The Deal, the correct ownership is as indicated below: 'The $860m project, which will generate 250 megawatts of electricity and put an end to load shedding, is the biggest project ever undertaken in Uganda. The executer, Bujagali Energy Limited, is a consortium of American Sithe Global, Kenyan Industrial Promotion Services (IPS) and the Ugandan Government. IPS is an affiliate of the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development. The consortium put $190m into the project while the rest are loans, mainly from the World Bank Group, the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank.' Otherwise, Jubilee on their own would have raised about KES 15 Billion for the project!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
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the deal wrote:I think Jubilee will post not less than 50% increase in end year EPS..assuming a 50% increase in end year EPS that will bring the end year PE to 6.9(190/27.5) which is cheap considering most financials are trading above the PE of 12...Madam Guru what do you say... The deal. I think the market just answered your question with a resounding yes. But then, You already knew the answer to that question.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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PKoli wrote:the deal wrote:I think most people underestimate Jubilee..i took time and read their AR and i was amazed how much meat to the bone does their balance sheet have...this guys own 25% stake of Bujagali Energy Uganda a 250MW power project..that project comes on stream in 2011..i expect it to impact Jubilee's bottom line by 2H 2011..dont forget their huge stakes in DTBK and TPS Serena... The Deal, the correct ownership is as indicated below: 'The $860m project, which will generate 250 megawatts of electricity and put an end to load shedding, is the biggest project ever undertaken in Uganda. The executer, Bujagali Energy Limited, is a consortium of American Sithe Global, Kenyan Industrial Promotion Services (IPS) and the Ugandan Government. IPS is an affiliate of the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development. The consortium put $190m into the project while the rest are loans, mainly from the World Bank Group, the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank.' Otherwise, Jubilee on their own would have raised about KES 15 Billion for the project! @Pkoli... @thedeal is a nice chap but when he drinks too much windhoek... he forgets to 'research' the info he provides! Maybe @thedeal plans to work for Business Daily Africa or another Nation newspaper... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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VituVingiSana wrote:PKoli wrote:the deal wrote:I think most people underestimate Jubilee..i took time and read their AR and i was amazed how much meat to the bone does their balance sheet have...this guys own 25% stake of Bujagali Energy Uganda a 250MW power project..that project comes on stream in 2011..i expect it to impact Jubilee's bottom line by 2H 2011..dont forget their huge stakes in DTBK and TPS Serena... The Deal, the correct ownership is as indicated below: 'The $860m project, which will generate 250 megawatts of electricity and put an end to load shedding, is the biggest project ever undertaken in Uganda. The executer, Bujagali Energy Limited, is a consortium of American Sithe Global, Kenyan Industrial Promotion Services (IPS) and the Ugandan Government. IPS is an affiliate of the Aga Khan Fund for Economic Development. The consortium put $190m into the project while the rest are loans, mainly from the World Bank Group, the European Investment Bank and the African Development Bank.' Otherwise, Jubilee on their own would have raised about KES 15 Billion for the project! @Pkoli... @thedeal is a nice chap but when he drinks too much windhoek... he forgets to 'research' the info he provides! Maybe @thedeal plans to work for Business Daily Africa or another Nation newspaper... @vvs and Pkoli here is a link to the JHL...http://www.jubileeholdings.com/fileadmin/templates/downloads/other%20reports/JHL_2009_AR.pdf TODAY I PUT IN A BID @ 199..
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,218 Location: Nairobi
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@thedeal - Please read the Report & report back to @pkoli & me... If you still cannot figure out where you went wrong... I am sure if you buy a crate of the really good stuff... we can show you... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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