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+80% winning forex trades, regardless of market conditions...
Extrapreneur
#1 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 12:58:14 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
Is this possible under any circumstances? Follow the journey at http://penwise.webs.com/...apreneur-trading-secret to find out if this is possible. Results updated daily.
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The Merchant
#2 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 11:22:14 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@extra...The screen shot is too small to make out anything meaningful. Can you enlarge it somewhat?
Scubidu
#3 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 2:18:04 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
How does one measure fx volatility? say 60 day volatility for the shilling?
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
The Merchant
#4 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 5:35:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@scubidu...you could use standard deviation. Try using bollinger bands on your chjart and that would give you a good measure of the volatility.
Extrapreneur
#5 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 7:16:30 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
The Merchant wrote:
@extra...The screen shot is too small to make out anything meaningful. Can you enlarge it somewhat?

Right click and open in new window.
Join the discussion on the first freelance community network in Kenya. If you'd like your blog included on the site, kindly email it to me at info@penwiseassociates.com or simply join the discussion in the forum section

Extrapreneur
#6 Posted : Thursday, August 26, 2010 7:35:04 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
Updated trading sheet for 26th August 2010 available, now with a daily analysis of the previous day's trades.

http://penwise.webs.com/...rading-secret?page=last

(Right click image and open in new tab or window)
Join the discussion on the first freelance community network in Kenya. If you'd like your blog included on the site, kindly email it to me at info@penwiseassociates.com or simply join the discussion in the forum section

Extrapreneur
#7 Posted : Friday, August 27, 2010 8:53:30 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
27th August Trading Analysis: Thanks to the promulgation of the new constitution, I had no internet all last night starting from midnight. This unfortunately meant I was unable to trade. This nevertheless helped me make up my mind to take up a VPS package which I shall set up on Monday.
Join the discussion on the first freelance community network in Kenya. If you'd like your blog included on the site, kindly email it to me at info@penwiseassociates.com or simply join the discussion in the forum section

Extrapreneur
#8 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 2:04:18 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 7/26/2010
Posts: 25
Location: Nairobi
31st August 2010 Trading Analysis: As mentioned in my previous post, I determined to transfer my trading platform and account to a Virtual Private Server, and more specifically to ForexVPS. Unfortunately, my demo expired and I was unable to continue testing my strategy on that account. I therefore moved to FxPro, who offer unlimited time Demo accounts as well as some really tight spreads. So this is day 3 of trade. Let's see how the week pans out as the markets have been super volatile today/
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kizee
#9 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 2:14:13 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
The Merchant wrote:
@scubidu...you could use standard deviation. Try using bollinger bands on your chjart and that would give you a good measure of the volatility.



this will NOt give you the volatility a bolinger band is an envelope that encompasses a 20dma with a std deviation(mkt practice 1.95-2pct)...ur best bet wud be to use the stastical measure for std deviation...

heres a link...http://www.gifted.uconn.edu/siegle/research/Normal/stdexcel.htm
The Merchant
#10 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 2:36:10 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
kizee wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
@scubidu...you could use standard deviation. Try using bollinger bands on your chjart and that would give you a good measure of the volatility.



this will NOt give you the volatility a bolinger band is an envelope that encompasses a 20dma with a std deviation(mkt practice 1.95-2pct)...ur best bet wud be to use the stastical measure for std deviation...

heres a link...http://www.gifted.uconn.edu/siegle/research/Normal/stdexcel.htm

Bollinger bands DO MEASURE volatility. Would you trade in a narrow bollinger band section before a breakout? And standard deviation measures risk which in turn indicates volatility. You can also use Ichimoku Clouds.
kizee
#11 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 2:45:39 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
The Merchant wrote:
kizee wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
@scubidu...you could use standard deviation. Try using bollinger bands on your chjart and that would give you a good measure of the volatility.



this will NOt give you the volatility a bolinger band is an envelope that encompasses a 20dma with a std deviation(mkt practice 1.95-2pct)...ur best bet wud be to use the stastical measure for std deviation...

heres a link...http://www.gifted.uconn.edu/siegle/research/Normal/stdexcel.htm

Bollinger bands DO MEASURE volatility. Would you trade in a narrow bollinger band section before a breakout? And standard deviation measures risk which in turn indicates volatility. You can also use Ichimoku Clouds.



bolllinger bands DO NOT measure volatility, ichimoku clouds also DO NOT measure volatility, neither will give u an absolute measure...they will just indicate that a market is volatile without measuring the extent of said volatility...volatility is std deviation from a mean...how wud a bollinger or ichimoku do this? unless ur sayin that the mean is calculated from a moving average in which case which movin average? why 20? why not 50 or 100 or 200????
The Merchant
#12 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 3:30:49 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@kizee...When determining the volatility you have to also accept a particular time period that you are interested in. Now, BBs and Ichimokus help one avoid speculative areas of trading which in my opinion can be described as volatile. I will now add another tool, Average True Range which uses the differences between the high and low prices to get a value on volatility. With this tool you also have to have a time frame eg ATR (15) which means ATR of the previous 15 periods (whatever your period is minutes or years) although it is the norm to use 14 periods.
The Merchant
#13 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 3:36:25 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Extrapreneur wrote:
The Merchant wrote:
@extra...The screen shot is too small to make out anything meaningful. Can you enlarge it somewhat?

Right click and open in new window.

d'oh! d'oh! not working. Maybe my browser is faulty?
kizee
#14 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 4:32:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
The Merchant wrote:
@kizee...When determining the volatility you have to also accept a particular time period that you are interested in. Now, BBs and Ichimokus help one avoid speculative areas of trading which in my opinion can be described as volatile. I will now add another tool, Average True Range which uses the differences between the high and low prices to get a value on volatility. With this tool you also have to have a time frame eg ATR (15) which means ATR of the previous 15 periods (whatever your period is minutes or years) although it is the norm to use 14 periods.



what do u understand by volatility sir?
The Merchant
#15 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 4:54:53 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@ Kizee...The relative rate at which the price of a security moves up and down. If the price of a stock moves up and down rapidly over short time periods, it has high volatility. If the price almost never changes, it has low volatility.

Whats your definition? And all the tools I have mentioned have an element of SD which you seem to believe is a good measure of volatility.

kizee
#16 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 5:12:10 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
its pretty much the std deviation of a fin instrument or the deviation from said instruments mean we cud get more pedantic and state that its the std dev of a the continous compounded returns of a fin instrument..te 4 different measures(of volatility) actual, actual future,historiccurrent or future implied..NONE I repeat NONE of these measures involves use of a TA oscillator
kizee
#17 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 5:14:50 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/9/2008
Posts: 537
Whats your definition? And all the tools I have mentioned have an element of SD which you seem to believe is a good measure of volatility.[/quote]



again...these tools use a std dev from a movin average so unless u beleive an MA can giv u the mean value of an instrument then i wudnt say that they measure volatility...as i said they detect and show a market is volatile or will be volatile without neccesarily giving absolute values of said volatility
The Merchant
#18 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 5:32:06 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
kizee wrote:
Whats your definition? And all the tools I have mentioned have an element of SD which you seem to believe is a good measure of volatility.




again...these tools use a std dev from a movin average so unless u beleive an MA can giv u the mean value of an instrument then i wudnt say that they measure volatility...as i said they detect and show a market is volatile or will be volatile without neccesarily giving absolute values of said volatility[/quote]

ATR DOES give an absolutre value on volatility sir.Shame on you
The Merchant
#19 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 5:35:11 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
I recommend you visit.. http://stockcharts.com/h...rs:average_true_range_a

It may help you understand my point of view. I am trying to measure volatility as it relates to instrument prices. I am not sure ATR is a directional indicator as you are implying.
Scubidu
#20 Posted : Tuesday, August 31, 2010 6:14:00 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
So...@The Merchant and @Kizee.

Let me rephrase the question. What's the best way of measuring volatility in general?

Ding ding: Round two of the cock fight begins...

Nway thanks a lot the both of you. I have more than enough info.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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