wazua Wed, Jan 29, 2025
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In | Register

2 Pages12>
Time to buy Total?
the deal
#1 Posted : Wednesday, June 23, 2010 10:34:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Total currently trades at a PBV of 0.6,PSR of 0.3,some people on wazua are using Total's recent first Quater results as a benchmark as to how Kenol will perform in 2010...on top of that Total is the number 1 oil company in Kenya and doesnt have legal issues like Kenol...their balance sheet look fat...one red flag it looks as if their paying a loan??? Will 2010 be the year for Total? Will they return to their 2.50 dividend?
slykat
#2 Posted : Thursday, June 24, 2010 1:31:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
Yeah; stable range 28-33 plus healthy div. But there is always that little matter of price transfer with Total, Isn't there?

Do they usually pay interim divs?
gladiator
#3 Posted : Thursday, June 24, 2010 5:52:58 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/25/2006
Posts: 101
no interim dividend and the best time to buy Total is the 4th quarter and offload in the 1st quarter either after gaining about 15% in capital gains or when it goes ex-dividend.
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Thursday, June 24, 2010 9:55:20 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
For growth I prefer KK over Total but I expect the 2.50 dividend from Total to start with FY 2010 (payable in 2011)... And that is a great return vis-avis T-bills...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#5 Posted : Thursday, June 24, 2010 2:00:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
For growth I prefer KK over Total but I expect the 2.50 dividend to start with FY 2010 (payable in 2011)

ja for future growth KK is the way...but that dividend at the current prices is awesome...
akowally
#6 Posted : Thursday, June 24, 2010 3:05:37 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/20/2008
Posts: 1,126
Location: Nairobi
Buy it tomorrow...Very stable share over the years, wasn't even affected by post election, world economic depression e.t.c, good dividend yield too...Great for long term though since price doesn't shift as much so won't give you the over 50% returns in the short term.
JOIN MY FREE MINI-COURSE FOR WRITERS. CLICK HERE
Wondergirl
#7 Posted : Thursday, June 24, 2010 3:24:43 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/12/2009
Posts: 312
akowally wrote:
Buy it tomorrow...Very stable share over the years, wasn't even affected by post election, world economic depression e.t.c, good dividend yield too...Great for long term though since price doesn't shift as much so won't give you the over 50% returns in the short term.

Are your good sentiments for Total or for KK?
reithi
#8 Posted : Thursday, June 24, 2010 4:35:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/12/2007
Posts: 75
...and here comes the price controls Sad
VituVingiSana
#9 Posted : Thursday, June 24, 2010 7:17:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
Price Controls have always failed... Show me a country where they have been successful...???

It is easy to introduce Price Controls coz POPULIST but it is inefficient... Encourages smuggling, deters investment thus loss of suppliers means either lower quality or shortages...

Maize, wheat, sugar & food oils are all GLOBAL commodities... Kenya imports all of the 4 above...

If you sell at 'below' cost then it will be smuggled from Kenya into Tanzania, Uganda, Sudan!!!

Dont forget fuel... Kenya imports 100% of its crude oil & petrol/diesel requirements... It's the high taxes (40% of petrol prices are direct taxes)...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#10 Posted : Friday, June 25, 2010 12:01:21 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@ VVS and Mukiha...GoK Should regulate the pump price according to the price of oil/barrel on international markets...they should set up a comitte which meets every month to determine wheather theres over recovery and under recovery in the market and adjust the pump price accordingly...
minto64
#11 Posted : Friday, June 25, 2010 12:15:23 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2008
Posts: 7
Location: Texas
If you are a speculator....total not a good stock. If you are in it for the dividend then it is the stock to buy.

Th chevron aka caltex acquisitions should begin to generate positive Cf's and earnings this year. All in all a good stock to have in your portfolio.
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Friday, June 25, 2010 2:24:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
@ VVS and Mukiha...GoK Should regulate the pump price according to the price of oil/barrel on international markets...they should set up a comitte which meets every month to determine wheather theres over recovery and under recovery in the market and adjust the pump price accordingly...


Therein lies the PROBLEM... You want a political committee to determine prices...

As for your 'over-recovery' & 'under-recover' that is plain NONSENSE... KK cant 'recover' from volume already sold neither is it fair to 'recover' from volumes to be sold!

The 'recovery' method only works if you sell fixed units monthly OR have a single supplier... Makes sense for KPLC not KK/Total...

KK (according to the mgmt) supports this fixed margin move as long as the margins are reasonable... Margins are under pressure with delayed VAT refunds & interest costs...

The most efficient firm will do very well since the 'base' will probably be set for an inefficient firm...

Or the inefficient firms go out of business then you end up with a cartel with much larger players...


Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Friday, June 25, 2010 2:31:18 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
Politics harm markets... coz most politics are bad for business...

A price-setting committee dominated/controlled by politicians will ALWAYS play to the lowest common denominator...

- moi used to race-bait everything. It was always the 'foreigners', UK, USA, Wazungu, Wahindi... never the policies, his sons, biwott, kulei... Do you remember the uneducated kotut? Ama scams like goldenberg?

- ndegwas used influence to buy out insurance firms getting 'favored' forex allocations from CBK...

- waruru kanja & kamotho used to facilitate licenses for imports for a kickback...

Note all the above were cause these 'committees' were CONTROLLED by politicians & their sidekicks! We paid the price by paying 'more' on the black market (under the table) for oil, milk, etc.

I remember my mzee used to go looking for petrol before a safari for work. Had to carry it (very dangerous) in the car. We used to keep jerricans of fuel at home (v. risky) for emergencies.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#14 Posted : Friday, June 25, 2010 2:43:23 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
VituVingiSana wrote:
the deal wrote:
@ VVS and Mukiha...GoK Should regulate the pump price according to the price of oil/barrel on international markets...they should set up a comitte which meets every month to determine wheather theres over recovery and under recovery in the market and adjust the pump price accordingly...


Therein lies the PROBLEM... You want a political committee to determine prices...

As for your 'over-recovery' & 'under-recover' that is plain NONSENSE... KK cant 'recover' from volume already sold neither is it fair to 'recover' from volumes to be sold!

The 'recovery' method only works if you sell fixed units monthly OR have a single supplier... Makes sense for KPLC not KK/Total...

KK (according to the mgmt) supports this fixed margin move as long as the margins are reasonable... Margins are under pressure with delayed VAT refunds & interest costs...

The most efficient firm will do very well since the 'base' will probably be set for an inefficient firm...

Or the inefficient firms go out of business then you end up with a cartel with much larger players...



@ vvs u are on fire...i hope wazuarians take notice...
minto64
#15 Posted : Friday, June 25, 2010 4:10:35 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/17/2008
Posts: 7
Location: Texas
@the deal.....you stirred up the hornest's nest.

@vvs..... well said. The pitfalls of controls given our history.
youcan'tstopusnow
#16 Posted : Wednesday, July 21, 2010 7:01:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
the deal wrote:
Total currently trades at a PBV of 0.6,PSR of 0.3,some people on wazua are using Total's recent first Quater results as a benchmark as to how Kenol will perform in 2010...on top of that Total is the number 1 oil company in Kenya and doesnt have legal issues like Kenol...their balance sheet look fat...one red flag it looks as if their paying a loan??? Will 2010 be the year for Total? Will they return to their 2.50 dividend?

Did you go ahead and get some Total or are you waiting for KK at 5 bob?smile I'm interested and i'm weighing my options.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
the deal
#17 Posted : Wednesday, July 21, 2010 9:22:40 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@youcant no i didnt...the preference shares spooked me out....i went for Ugali instead....
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Wednesday, July 21, 2010 9:29:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,135
Location: Nairobi
Total is to KCB what Kenol is to Equity...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#19 Posted : Wednesday, July 21, 2010 9:30:24 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
How is the cat doing? Did you get a name for him or her yet?;-)
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
the deal
#20 Posted : Wednesday, July 21, 2010 9:50:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
How is the cat doing? Did you get a name for him or her yet?;-)

Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly
i wish i had kept the cat but the owner came for it...in between have u been down south i.e SA,Botswana,Namibia,Zambia,Angola or Zimbabwe...i noticed most Kenyans just stick in Nairobi thinking its the begining and the end of the world...LOL...
Users browsing this topic
Guest
2 Pages12>
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Copyright © 2025 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.