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Foreign investors headed for the EXITS!
mv_ufanisi
#1 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 9:37:43 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
Foreign investors seem to be exiting quickly. The stock market seems ready to take a beating. This is the disadvantage of having too much foreign investor influence in the stock market. Given the collapsing equities in Europe and North America, a massive sell off might start right here in the NSE with disastrous results;
- huge devaluation of stock prices
- devaluation of the shilling as foreigners try to convert their money to USD
- devaluation of the shilling brings about trouble for companies servicing foreign debt

Remember, when foreign markets sneeze, we catch a cold.




KulaRaha
#2 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 9:47:17 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
Wow, todays facts:

as at now,

Foreign purchases: 338m
Foreign sales: 421m
net foreign outflow: 83m

Doesnt look like a wholesale exit to me...thats about $1m only...small change.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
mv_ufanisi
#3 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 9:54:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
[quote=KulaRaha]Wow, todays facts:

as at now,

Foreign purchases: 338m
Foreign sales: 421m
net foreign outflow: 83m

Doesnt look like a wholesale exit to me...thats about $1m only...small change.[/qoute

@kularaha
I hope this doesn't happen. I just see ominous signs that things might go this way. There's probably no cause for worry but there is a real danger of this happening and as an investor it's important to be ready.
KulaRaha
#4 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 10:05:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
I wouldnt worry, given offshore interest rates at 0.25%...theyll stay here as the yiled is better
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
Much Know
#5 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 10:07:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
Am praying for wanjiku to check in big time, she could hold the market through
A New Kenya
mv_ufanisi
#6 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 10:09:04 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
KulaRaha wrote:
I wouldnt worry, given offshore interest rates at 0.25%...theyll stay here as the yiled is better


In 2009 they didn't stay here. Plus given a weakening shilling, they are facing currency exchange losses. In the end their money is better off here but I don't understand how they think, given that in 2009 they left the market in droves.
KulaRaha
#7 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 10:18:32 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/26/2007
Posts: 6,514
In 2009 there was net foreign outflow from all markets given major cashflow issues at home. Plus there was shareholder pressure to exit from "high risk" assets, given recent losses on derivatives.

I think risk profiles have changed this year. Plus most offshore banks/funds etc are in the green so not so much pressure.
Business opportunities are like buses,there's always another one coming
sky5
#8 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 10:28:18 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 5/7/2010
Posts: 282
Location: Nairobi
The foreign investors in NSE are catching the cold of the eurozone crisis. The panic in foreign market is fast. Just pray though that NSE be spared.
Much Know
#9 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 10:57:39 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
Believe me nse will not be spared, its kobil, banks and scom etc have been proping it, how long? In times like these you use dividends to survive.
A New Kenya
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 2:09:51 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
@muchknow - This exit shud make you happy... ati "Wakoloni watarudi through shares"

Personally, I wud happily sell my Kenya Oil or Kenya Airways or Kenya Comm Bank as long as I get a good price for the shares!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Much Know
#11 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 3:15:00 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/6/2008
Posts: 3,548
@vvs sina pesa, i have decided to watch from the sidelines and see how low the market goes as i look for cash. I really would enjoy selling to the foreignors when they come rushing in and buy from them as they run away. I have learnt now to consider cash as part of my portfolio at any given time.
A New Kenya
Fundaah
#12 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 3:49:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 11/19/2008
Posts: 1,267
mv_ufanisi wrote:
Foreign investors seem to be exiting quickly. The stock market seems ready to take a beating.
Remember, when foreign markets sneeze, we catch a cold.



Is it something to do with the uncertainity on the constitution?
Isaiah 65:17-Look! I am creating new heavens and a new earth, and no one will even think about the old ones anymore
obiero
#13 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 4:02:17 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 13,548
Location: nairobi
too late. the prices are already starting to dip across the board

HF 90,000 ABP 3.83; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
tmatekwa
#14 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 4:05:48 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/1/2007
Posts: 232
This time round I am prepared. I will buy every share I can lay my hands on through out the period then sell when they rush back
2012
#15 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 4:08:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
It's not entirely a bad thing for them to be exiting like this. It gives us all an opportunity to pick up some shares at an affordable price after all we all know they'll be back sooner than later.

BBI will solve it
:)
the deal
#16 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 4:46:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
come friday..the NSE will set new 2010 highs...
chaliwong
#17 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 7:48:29 PM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/10/2010
Posts: 73
Location: kenya
But have they said that they will NEVER come back?
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Wednesday, May 26, 2010 8:43:05 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,121
Location: Nairobi
Watarudi... lakini even if they dont... kwani, we cant enjoy the profits???
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Kesh!
#19 Posted : Thursday, May 27, 2010 9:12:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 10/16/2008
Posts: 47
@The deal.. What informs your statement of a high by friday?

As Kibaki would say.. 'Kwani wataenda miaka ngapi?.. Wataenda pale pale halafu mwisho watarudi hapa hapa.. Ooh yes oooh yes.. Na wakirudi tutawashika tuwachaapa.. Vibooko..halafu tutawafungia.. Hakuna mtu anafikiria atatoroka hii Kenya yetu bila kurudi.. Si watarudi tu.. Wataruudi.. Waataruudi.. Oh yes kuenda wameenda lakini kurudi watarudi ndani ya hii kenya yetu moja..'

on a more serious note, as the exit we remember that cash is king!
the deal
#20 Posted : Thursday, May 27, 2010 9:19:10 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Kesh! wrote:
@The deal.. What informs your statement of a high by friday?

As Kibaki would say.. 'Kwani wataenda miaka ngapi?.. Wataenda pale pale halafu mwisho watarudi hapa hapa.. Ooh yes oooh yes.. Na wakirudi tutawashika tuwachaapa.. Vibooko..halafu tutawafungia.. Hakuna mtu anafikiria atatoroka hii Kenya yetu bila kurudi.. Si watarudi tu.. Wataruudi.. Waataruudi.. Oh yes kuenda wameenda lakini kurudi watarudi ndani ya hii kenya yetu moja..'

on a more serious note, as the exit we remember that cash is king!

@ kesh! i dont get wat u r saying...i cant read or write swahili...
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