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KPLC's Preferential Shares
MaichBlack
#1 Posted : Wednesday, April 07, 2010 3:01:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
I read NSSF concerns on the effect of the government converting their preferential shares in NBK to ordinary shares. They claim that this could erode the value of their shares by up to 75%. That's HUGE!
I understand that the government also has preferential shares at KPLC and one the things they are going to do in the restructuring is convert them to ordinary shares. Despite this quite a good number of investors (including @vituvingisana @guru & others not neccessarily in Wazua) still remain bullish on this stock. What I'm I missing? Can someone more knowledgeable than me on this issue shed some light. How will this affect the value & price of the stock. I'm planning to get into KPLC in a big way but I'm trying to avoid the herd mentality. Need some more facts. Also can anyone kindly post the EPS for KPLC for the last five years or so.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
mv_ufanisi
#2 Posted : Wednesday, April 07, 2010 3:13:03 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/15/2010
Posts: 625
@ MaichBlack, you probably want to do the research yourself given that you are getting in in a big way. The stock market is the only place in the world where a man can expect to get rich based off the information of others.
U don't want to lose money & blame it on advice you got here.
MaichBlack
#3 Posted : Wednesday, April 07, 2010 3:50:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
@ MV - You have used the right words. What I'll get here is advice or more precisely additional information. As a matter of fact, I expect diverse opinions and then I can use my intelligence and research from elsewhere to make my decision. Of course I can't wake up one morning & buy share x just because username y said I should. Not unless I want to be separated with my hard earned cash sooner rather than later. I listen to people's points, weigh in with my own, but the final decision still remains mine.
And by the way, I take what is discussed in wazua more seriously than what I would be told by a random broker or two somewhere. That is why I can't wait to read the views of vituvingi, guru, njung'e and many more wazuarians (still hate that name! but I digress) on this issue.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Wednesday, April 07, 2010 6:47:01 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
@maich - I have posted my reasons elsewhere... I will not rehash them here... bottomline is simple... As long as Kenyans pay their electricity bills... as long as KPLC can get supply (from KenGen, IPPs)... as long as the supply is affordable (we need rain, low oil prices, etc)... KPLC will make money!

Anyway, in simple terms... I expect KPLC to hit 200+ (My initial buy was at 135/- level)... within 6-12 months...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Wednesday, April 07, 2010 6:47:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
BTW, I shud say I include dividends & the Rights premium in the 200/-
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#6 Posted : Thursday, April 08, 2010 6:09:01 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@maichblack @VVS is right.. i was very bullish on this stock but that was because i got in at 125bob.. the preference share conversion and the rights issue are likely to cause dilution but not to the same extent as NBK especially if one takes up the rights.. infact most analysts are speculating the restructuring will be favourable to ordinary shareholders hence the share price rise...

i cant give you EPS for the next couple of years because i dont own a crystal ball but i can say that the company is gearing itself for massive growth.... if you are going in for the long term its still a very good buy but for short term i advise caution at these price levels IMHO...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
MaichBlack
#7 Posted : Thursday, April 08, 2010 11:40:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
@ guru - I was requesting for EPS for the last five years.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
guru267
#8 Posted : Thursday, April 08, 2010 12:14:39 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
MaichBlack wrote:
@ guru - I was requesting for EPS for the last five years.


sorry about that..
EPS
2006: 20.8
2007: 21.7
2008: 22.3
2009: 40.76
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
FundamentAli
#9 Posted : Thursday, April 08, 2010 12:14:55 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/4/2008
Posts: 1,289
Location: Nairobi
KPLC was bailed out by the government some while back. I do not know about the details of the debenture. But from what I understood then, KPLC would not be giving any dividends for the period of 10 yrs otherwise they will have to pay interest on the debenture. That is the same reason why NBK does not give dividends. Anyone with the terms and details of that loan? I keep away from it as I kept away from NBK.
sparkly
#10 Posted : Thursday, April 08, 2010 6:23:54 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@MaichBlack if you don't understand it, don't touch it. Would you take a bus if you didn't have any idea where it was going?
Life is short. Live passionately.
MaichBlack
#11 Posted : Friday, April 09, 2010 10:04:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,460
@Sparkly - When I get a bus at a bus stop and I don't know where it is going, I don't just let it drive off. I try to find out where it is going and which route it will use and then I make a decision. Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly Laughing out loudly

When you don't understand something 100%, the first thing is to accept this fact then if it is possible, do what you can to get additional information. If we simply walked away from things we don't understand, then everyone would be very busy walkin away from everything.

I'm trying to understand what effects the KPLC restructuring will have. If & when I feel I have, I will make (an informed) decision.
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
VituVingiSana
#12 Posted : Sunday, April 11, 2010 9:02:25 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
@MaichBlack - Very smart thinking about the bus...

Anyway, I am bullish even at 180 (of course, I was VERY bullish at 135/- when I first started following it...)
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Jaguar
#13 Posted : Sunday, April 25, 2010 8:45:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/7/2007
Posts: 263
Location: humu humu
The ownership of KPLC is bound to change substantially as it emerges that the government has approved a plan to float a massive rights issue that will permit existing shareholders of the company to increase their stakes in the profitable company....more from the east african
slykat
#14 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 12:34:05 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/20/2007
Posts: 359
I would say that the nature of the new information on the conversion of ps to os, is not such as to cause a sharp rise in the short term. Therefore, I would say, hold your horses while you research,watch mkt reaction to the info and await further details. I would move in just before or at the point where the govt actualizes the reduction of its holding to 40%.
guru267
#15 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 6:12:09 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@skylat please try and get your facts straight for the sake of wazurians... GOK is currently holds 40% of the ordinary shares which will increase to 75% after the conversion and reduce to about 50% after the rights issue...

the share price will rally significantly as a result of the share split because this is a stock desired by many kenyans but currently out of their reach...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 8:15:02 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,120
Location: Nairobi
How accurate is the story is the question... Of late, the newspapers have been trying to sell more papers...

Look at the Equity-HFCK-NBK 'connection' being pushed... The Equity-HFCK connection, we know of... but how does Equity buying HFCK help it acquire NBK???

No-one has given me a plausible explanation...

So until the restructuring info on KPLC comes out... I treat the newspaper stories as merely entertainment...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
sheep
#17 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 8:53:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 7/24/2008
Posts: 781
There is something very sinister about this KPLC "restructuring".There is more than meets the eye.A little information is very dangerous!
The utimate goal of investing is to buy low sell high;if we re-write this core equation in psychology terms it becomes buy fear sell greed.
youcan'tstopusnow
#18 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 4:44:45 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
As VVS likes to say, as long as Kenyans need electricity KPLC will continue minting profits. After the split, I'll jump in with both legs.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
Wa_ithaka
#19 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 4:55:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Both the NBK/KPLC stories in the E African are exactly the same so I think somebody is pusing papers.
Won't buy KPLC anyway...
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
TUPAC
#20 Posted : Monday, April 26, 2010 6:03:41 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/8/2009
Posts: 274
Location: Ltktk
The story on the Eastafrican lacks credibility. It could have been written by a journalist on ''teaching practice'' at the paper.
...things fall apart...the centre cannot hold..mere anarchy is loosed upon the world...w b yeats
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