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Buying patterns of foreign investors.
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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I have been observing the buying habits of foreign investors for now,it seems like their mostly interested in stocks where fellow foreigners hold a majority or a controling portion. 1.EABL-DIAGEO(U.S), 2.KQ-KLM/QATAR AIRWAYS, 3.SAFARICOM-VODAFONE(U.K)....in 2010 make sure u @least have one of this counter in ur portfolio...with near zero interest rates in the developed world more n more foreigners are turning to ermerging markets where the returns r much higher.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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@the deal what kind of advice is this? It is no better than saying buy KQ if it rains on 7th of june. Surely there can be no correlation between who is buying insignificant shareholding and how well an economy, sector or company does. Ati we shun companies that foreigners are not buying even if they have good potential... Bure advice. But i agree with you that there are better opportunities in the emerging economies. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:foreign investors mostly interested in stocks where fellow foreigners hold a majority or a controling portion.
1.EABL-DIAGEO(U.S),
2.KQ-KLM/QATAR AIRWAYS
3.SAFARICOM-VODAFONE(U.K)
They need liquidity coz they buy minimum $100,000... you can't buy firms that trade $1,000/day... too much paperwork! Erm, Where did u hear Qatar owns a stake in KQ? I know KLM has 26%... Diageo is UK firm not American Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@ sparkly i didnt say dont buy mumias because it has no foreign ofcourse one has to look @ the fundamental before buying a stock...@ vvs u r right its only klm..foreigners r creating the demand at the moment so ride with them.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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@the deal: Lakini the question is... why are they buying KQ? Did you see the 3Q announcement. It showed growth over the 1H (1Q+2Q) which means a huge leap over 1Q+2Q (which were down huge)... If I can extrapolate, then I would say 4Q looks better... During the AGM, KQ said that the bookings for remainder of the year (through March 2010) looked stronger. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@ vvs i have not seen the announcement yet but all i kow is that the passenger n cargo numbers in the last 3 month of 2009 increased...lakini i used to fly with kq to joburg but those guys r expensive n full of delays.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:@ vvs i have not seen the announcement yet but all i kow is that the passenger n cargo numbers in the last 3 month of 2009 increased...lakini i used to fly with kq to joburg but those guys r expensive n full of delays. Well... expensive compared to who/what? I complained (bitterly) to KQ as well about their fares (I fly around Africa) then I was sent a breakdown of the fares. A large percentage (varies on destination): - Taxes & fees by the governments. JKIA is cheap compared to others e.g. Accra. Same with other airports. The low volume airports charge more. - Fuel surcharge. Airlines would set their 'normal fare' at the (before) beginning of the year. The increase in oil from $40 to $150 wrecked havoc with the 'normal fare'. The fuel surcharge almost matched the 'normal fare'. Oil in 2008-9 swung from $40->$150->$35->$75 KShs/US$ in 2008-9 swung from 68->62->82->77 Oil in 2010 (so far) between $75-78 KES/US$ in 2010 (so far) between 75-78 Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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@the deal: You do know that S.African Airlines is subsidized by SA Govt while KQ pays taxes (including double taxation in many cases). Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:I have been observing the buying habits of foreign investors for now,it seems like their mostly interested in stocks where fellow foreigners hold a majority or a controling portion. 1.EABL-DIAGEO(U.S), 2.KQ-KLM/QATAR AIRWAYS, 3.SAFARICOM-VODAFONE(U.K)....in 2010 make sure u @least have one of this counter in ur portfolio...with near zero interest rates in the developed world more n more foreigners are turning to ermerging markets where the returns r much higher. @the deal is right you need at least one of these counters in your portfolio even if its small simply because foreigners are running this market and these are their darlings. Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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@guru - You buy shares on what you expect using technical or fundamental analysis... buying coz foreigners are buying is not the way to go... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,548
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Foreign markets (asia, europe, NYSE)down last four days, so NSE? down. They seem to withdraw faster than they return, so market will pick up later than when they do. Waiting for 3pm to see US futures and jioni NYSE closing. @the deal, they also buy KPLC, Kengen, Equity and KCB in large numbers, i dont think there is a solid correlation other than basic fundamentals in what they buy. A New Kenya
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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@much know - Liquid shares... stuff they can buy in large quantities... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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@ vvs i think they look at both liquidity and fundamentals...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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@the deal - I mean both... But no matter how good it looks... unless they are a fund willing to wait 3 years (very few)... they want liquidity... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:@guru - You buy shares on what you expect using technical or fundamental analysis... buying coz foreigners are buying is not the way to go... @VVS let me elaborate.... i was just saying that these were good buys because simply because of high foreign interest but they(EABL, safcom, and KQ) are also very fundamentally sound to me... ama?? Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/6/2008 Posts: 3,548
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VVS, i am a bit worried when i hear a Warren Buffet fanatic mention technical analysis. Take the following quotes from him (even though not cited his stance is well known, ok quotes are from wikipedia) Warren Buffett has said, "I realized technical analysis didn't work when I turned the charts upside down and didn't get a different answer" and "If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians." Anyway, technical analysis looks like a juju man throwing shells and stones to the ground and pointing out a pattern of future events to me, whether juju works or not is a matter of controversy. Even for the short term, other simpler methods of fundamental trading such as stock valuation against expected earnings, results oriented trading, announcements, stock splits or momentum trading makes more sense. there is what i would call an objective statement on wikipedia on technical analysis http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Te...lysis#Empirical_evidenceA New Kenya
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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@much know i def. agree technical analysis without backing from somewhere else is just sophisticated guess work.. it would only work if machines were trading instead human beings thats why i'm dying to see how @kebayas technical analysis of safcom goes for him  Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote: @VVS let me elaborate....
i was just saying that these were good buys because simply because of high foreign interest
but they(EABL, safcom, and KQ) are also very fundamentally sound to me... ama?? You are scaring me... The first sounds logical but only if you can get in early. Also it is closer to speculation than investment. I am wary of that approach. I always got in too late & exited too late. Net result: Losses! The second point I agree. I am not sure of the numbers behind EABL. Safcom at 5.50 is too rich for me at the moment. I want 5 or lower. KQ is interesting for me. I follow it. I think 50/- is a decent entry point. Not 'cheap' but reasonable since I expect PAT (before hedges) to be 5-7. I prefer the 7/- or higher! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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Much Know wrote:VVS, i am a bit worried when i hear a Warren Buffet fanatic mention technical analysis. @muchknow - Where do I support technical analysis? I do look at it but I prefer the WB way. That said, if the commissions were to drop to really low levels, I might try it! And I agree it is an excuse to gamble... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,118 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:@much know i def. agree technical analysis without backing from somewhere else is just sophisticated guess work.. it would only work if machines were trading instead human beings thats why i'm dying to see how @kebayas technical analysis of safcom goes for him Even without technical analysis... I think 5.50 is a little too high for safaricom... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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