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STAR PERFORMERS
mukiha
#1 Posted : Wednesday, February 03, 2010 2:34:11 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Lest we lose sight of the forest for the trees:

Highest gainers in the year so far are:

Mumias Sugar Co. +47.45%

Kenya Airways +44.06%

KenolKobil Co +32.00%

Eveready East Africa +22.41%

Sameer Africa +21.00%

Jubilee Insurance Co. +20.00%

Safaricom Limited +17.58%

E.A.Cables +16.05%

NIC Bank +12.00%

Express +11.80%


How many of them are in your portfolio?
mukiha attached the following image(s):
j0441361rv.jpg (15kb) downloaded 5 time(s).
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Wednesday, February 03, 2010 2:36:00 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
I do not like Neveready & Scameer but I need to look at them as speculative plays...

I do not have them in my (current) portfolio
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
anasazi
#3 Posted : Wednesday, February 03, 2010 2:44:23 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/8/2007
Posts: 675
Took one look at Neveready's financials before the IPO and never looked at them again. However I need(ed) to add KQ to my portfolio. Am hoping for a second chance, since I believe I missed the bus on this one. Or is it still a good time?
Form is temporary, class is permanent
VituVingiSana
#4 Posted : Wednesday, February 03, 2010 3:16:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
anasazi - I do not know what... lakini kuna kitu @KQ

I have posted my thoughts on KQ on 'taking positions in 2010'
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
kelele
#5 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 12:27:42 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 1/9/2010
Posts: 18
I wonder what's behind the surge in evereaday. Their profits have gradudaly gone down year to year and nothing out there seems to indicate that things are on the turnaround.
That said,I have started loading up on it - purely speculative reasons
sparkly
#6 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 4:26:43 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@mukiha am not surprised by the list of top gainers. I repeat with conviction that 2010 is the year for medium and small CAPS. The likes of cables, nic and kobil have lots of mileage left in them.
Life is short. Live passionately.
guru267
#7 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 5:34:34 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
kelele wrote:
I wonder what's behind the surge in evereaday. Their profits have gradudaly gone down year to year and nothing out there seems to indicate that things are on the turnaround.
That said,I have started loading up on it - purely speculative reasons



yeah i agree that there is no fundamentals whatsoever supporting this stock... its facing rising competition, rising costs, and lower revenues which all spell disaster... so why would you load up on this counter with such high risk even for speculation??? especially when the current market is flooded with oppurtunity
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Cicero
#8 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 5:38:45 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/7/2009
Posts: 111
If you look carefully at the top 10 gainers @mukiha has been kind enought to analyse and post for us above, there is something about at least 7 of the counters ... a possibility that someone with a keen eye could have picked them out as very good buys 3-6 months or so ago and made a good profit. Problem is most people dont listen to their inner voice especially with KQ and Mumias seeming to do really badly (Mumias the share, KQ their end of last FY results) ...
Don't gamble; take all your savings and buy some good stock and hold it till it goes up, then sell it. If it don't go up, don't buy it...
guru267
#9 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:02:04 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@mukiha's post is very enlightening... i had KQ and safcom but bailed on KQ for a number of reasons.... but for those who missed the buses there is still plenty of oppurtunity for 2010
in counters like: Kenya Re
Olympia capital
KQ
and for the big boys in this game there's also KPLC
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#10 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:20:45 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
KenyaRe - I am not comfy but I will wait for the results & Annual Report...

Olympia - CEO (in an interview on CNBC) said they were looking at a minimum of 40mn PAT (EPS of 1/-) for this year.

KQ - I estimate EPS of 5-7 (without hedging gains). 1H was 1.84 AFTER the costs for the strike & backpay

KPLC - Lots of volatility/uncertainty with the restructuring.


Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#11 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:44:24 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
did u look at the analyst's review after the interview of the olympia CEO?? he said they were grossly underestimating those projections so that they would outperform them... its hard to believe they would earn 1billion in revenues and only 40m profits.. and theyve greatly improved there balnce sheet

I've seen the details of KPLC's share restructuring and technical analysis i've done is in favour of this counter especially if one has the financial muscle for the rights issue..

kenya re is on a cost cutting mission and basing on its half year results and its current valuations its really undervalued..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
guru267
#12 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:45:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
did u look at the analyst's review after the interview of the olympia CEO?? he said they were grossly underestimating those projections so that they would outperform them... its hard to believe they would earn 1billion in revenues and only 40m profits.. and theyve greatly improved there balnce sheet

I've seen the details of KPLC's share restructuring and technical analysis i've done is in favour of this counter especially if one has the financial muscle for the rights issue..

kenya re is on a cost cutting mission and basing on its half year results and its current valuations its really undervalued..
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#13 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 6:55:40 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
did u look at the analyst's review after the interview of the olympia CEO?? he said they were grossly underestimating those projections so that they would outperform them... its hard to believe they would earn 1billion in revenues and only 40m profits.. and theyve greatly improved there balnce sheet


Highly leveraged so getting rid of the leverage in 2010?

Off a low base so perhaps the 2010 results will be better. Like you said, are they under'talking' the potential for an upside surprise?

Looks cheap at 7x PE even if we use the numbers the CEO gave in the interview.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
cnn
#14 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 7:02:26 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
@guru267,could you give us a peek on KPLC restructuring,i would be very intrested.
@vvs..KQ seems to have resisted 50 even when supply was plenty,destined higher.
VituVingiSana
#15 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 7:11:36 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
News on KPLC restructuring was in the papers but hope @guru can provide more info... there is a conversion of Preferred Shares to Ordinary Shares for the benefit of GoK.

KQ @ 52.50 at the moment. Demand 2x supply. 22% net foreign buying. Weak US$ means lower loan payments for fuel & lease/loan payments as well.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
VituVingiSana
#16 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 7:22:49 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
@cnn - Someone just bought 100,000 shares in KQ in one lot. They got them at 50/- coz on the Prompt Board.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
guru267
#17 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 7:28:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
about KPLC i dont know if this is common knowledge but the GOK will convert its pref shares to ordinary shares making its holding in the company rise to above 70%.. but it will have a rights issue in which GOK DOESNT plan to particpate.. this which will see its holdings fall to about 50% and it currently owns 40%..
And after that it will split the shares which means more liquidity and much more affordabilty for the counter hence sparking interest local and foreign... And dont forget a cleaner balance sheet cos currently the pref shares appear as a huge liabilty...
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#18 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 7:32:48 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,118
Location: Nairobi
Preference Shares are equity not liabilities. The bulk of these on KPLC Balance Sheet are accounted for as Equity. Ignore the 4% & 7% for now!

I do not know the order of the restructuring as mentioned by @guru but I think these will all happen almost simultaneously i.e. the conversion & split.

The Rights will probably be after the split to make them more attractive to buyers.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Wa_ithaka
#19 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 7:36:36 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/7/2010
Posts: 1,279
Location: nbi
Always be aware of the all boats rising efefct i.e. where all shares rise because there is a more positive sentiment in the stock market in general.
The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
gathinga
#20 Posted : Thursday, February 04, 2010 7:49:22 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/30/2006
Posts: 635
Anyone with details on the impact on KPLC income statements from the deals signed for lease of their terestial fibre cables. Perhaps these could have significant impact on their results in the second half of 2010. Good prospects on this counter
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