I want to do an experiment using tech software, so I think it's about time I had a 'tech alley' or 'tech corner' going-where "we make tech work for you"...sound familiar?

I want to know if there are Kenyans interested in technical analysis and the graphs we'll look at will mostly show three indicators: RSI, %K stochastics and Bollinger Bands.

If you need to read up on your tech terms click the link below:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technical_analysis

Let's try and see what trends we can see over the next few months. Today is only an introduction, so we can do a post every monday morning, once a week. Any suggestions as to which stocks to follow are welcome but realistically we're are looking at no more than ten.

Click the link below for the latest trends:

http://www.scribd.com/do...ators-20th-January-2010

Interesting trends on KQ, Mumias, Co-Operative where volumes are rising with prices. Tech analysis can help some of us trade better in volatile markets and any experts on tech out there are most welcome.

kizee. niaje? it's bina a while since we last talked. I'm pretty new to this tech stuff so I'm not to good on trend lines. And what is the dma?

btw did you hear about the Obama plan? Separate sponsorship of hedge funds by banks and stop future merger plans of banks that are too huge to fail.

Thanks for definition. I'll try add in those trend lines.

nasim taleb is the guy for the Swan and Fooled by randomness. I read the swan but the other one I didn't have the stomach for (i was so confused). So what was he saying (nasim), he suggested something like that.

Those hedge funds were the only reason the banks were making money.

Did he mention about the 'too big to fail' banking model. That's another thing Obama is trying to target...regulating bank mergers so that no one is too big to fail.

kizee. I really need to start following nasim.

In this week's tech corner we look at 10 stocks. As a tech novice I'd appreciate any thoughts. Is it possible to make the following statements:

Safaricom likely to be supported at Ksh5.40 (check on volume)
KQ is unlikely to go down due to weak selling
Mumias looks set to continue down to Ksh8.35-8.55 range
Ksh24.00 may be tough for KCB to cross
Kenya Re needs to break Ksh14.00-14.10 range for new upward trend & has high selling pressure currently
Unexpected bull run from Jubilee Holdings. Will it continue

Check out the graphs below (you may want to print them out):

http://www.scribd.com/do...alysis-25th-January-2010

Kishindo. No comment on Kenol trading - haven't looked at the graph. Interesting thing is I read that they were to be paid Sh4.6 bn by KPC over breach of contract. I thinks that's what caused the market stur last week.

Most of the predictions are backfiring. Mumias up and KQ down. Well we can't get everything right.

@ Scubidu

I'm not surprised your predictions are "backfiring"....however, technical analysis works surprisingly well in frontier markets. IMO lose all that BB & %KS crap and concentrate on DMA, Volume & Level 2 activity.

If you're really serious about getting your TA edumacation ....& you're considering emigration...

http://www.mta.org/eweb/StartPage.aspx

~ 80 Grand

@ Jammo & Scubidu
Which is a bigger hedge fund? JPM or GS. The Volcker Rule was announced on the 21st. Check out corresponding activity on these two stocks since then.

JPM
http://www.google.com/fi...lient=ob&q=NYSE:JPM

GS
http://www.google.com/fi...client=ob&q=NYSE:GS

And now...check out Short Interest on both stocks. Some lucky (clever?) bastard made a killing!

JPM
http://money.cnn.com/quo..._interest.html?symb=JPM

http://finance.aol.com/c.../jpm/nys/short-interest

GS
http://money.cnn.com/quo...t_interest.html?symb=GS

http://finance.aol.com/c...c/gs/nys/short-interest

@ guru267

To quote Keynes....

"....When I can persuade the Board of my Insurance Company to buy a share, that, I am learning from experience, is the right moment for selling it."

U also forgot the first rule of fight club- the trend is u friend...u must use basic trend lines before anything else, then maybe some fibonacci retracements to gauge support/resistance levels..thereafter DMAS for volume u wud rather use an indicator known as ON BALANCE VOLUME(OBV)...if u dont hav it volume is ok,however wen u chek volume wat do u luk for?...in addition...tech analysis only works for liquid markets/counters...i doubt a kenol chart wud be of much help...

as i said...first learn to interprate trends...stick to basics...there are only 3 trends up down or sideways

Equity