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Kengen cash call put on hold
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mthaka
#1 Posted : Thursday, March 27, 2014 10:30:11 PM
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as mentioned earlier this rights issue might not happen
http://www.nation.co.ke/...80/-/ulogw8/-/index.html
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georgegop
#2 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 7:59:06 AM
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There is a big line between what will not happen and what has been pushed forward!
KenGen delays Sh15bn rights issue to July
Don't Work for Money, Let Money Work for You..
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mlennyma
#3 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 8:15:47 AM
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it can never be a buy before rights.
"Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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georgegop
#4 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 8:26:21 AM
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"Never" is too strong a word. This market can be highly unpredictable!
Don't Work for Money, Let Money Work for You..
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sparkly
#5 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 8:40:08 AM
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georgegop wrote:
There is a big line between what will not happen and what has been pushed forward!
KenGen delays Sh15bn rights issue to July


They need to do something to prop the price first. As it is the maximum Rights price would be around 10.50.

I would advise them to start with a very small rights of KShs 5B which of course will be oversubscribed and come back with another rights next year. By then the revenues will have started flowing from the new Olkaria projects to support a higher valuation and rights.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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mwekez@ji
#6 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 9:22:35 AM
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mlennyma wrote:
it can never be a buy before rights.


Am inclined to agree cc@NBK
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Aguytrying
#7 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 9:40:59 AM
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mwekez@ji wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
it can never be a buy before rights.


Am inclined to agree cc@NBK


However if they prop up the price, there may be money to be made. Coz in all fairness, no reason KENGEN shouldn't be 16.00 shillings and above.

I find gava firms cursed by rights issues, other companies share price dont suffer so much during rights
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#8 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 10:01:03 AM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
sparkly wrote:
georgegop wrote:
There is a big line between what will not happen and what has been pushed forward!
KenGen delays Sh15bn rights issue to July


They need to do something to prop the price first. As it is the maximum Rights price would be around 10.50.

I would advise them to start with a very small rights of KShs 5B which of course will be oversubscribed and come back with another rights next year. By then the revenues will have started flowing from the new Olkaria projects to support a higher valuation and rights.


According to this article. The price comes to about 7.00. 2.21 billion shares*7= ~15.00 billion shillings.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Aguytrying
#9 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 10:05:47 AM
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Aguytrying wrote:
mwekez@ji wrote:
mlennyma wrote:
it can never be a buy before rights.


Am inclined to agree cc@NBK


However if they prop up the price, there may be money to be made. Coz in all fairness, no reason KENGEN shouldn't be 16.00 shillings and above.

I find gava firms cursed by rights issues, other companies share price dont suffer so much during rights


The dilution that will happen here will be nothing to smile about. Kengen has issued 7.78B new shares. 2.21 B will be used for this rights issue. Thats already a half dilution. Say the other 5 B shares are sold to strategic investor(s). Thats another half dultion. So in total say current price divided by 4 is what the dilution will look like if all those 7.78B shares come on board.

And current price divided by 2 is the dilution after the rights issue.

SO YES, NOT A BUY before rights
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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innovator
#10 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 10:45:50 AM
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Joined: 7/24/2010
Posts: 236
Location: nairobi
sparkly wrote:
georgegop wrote:
There is a big line between what will not happen and what has been pushed forward!
KenGen delays Sh15bn rights issue to July


They need to do something to prop the price first. As it is the maximum Rights price would be around 10.50.

I would advise them to start with a very small rights of KShs 5B which of course will be oversubscribed and come back with another rights next year. By then the revenues will have started flowing from the new Olkaria projects to support a higher valuation and rights.


This is likely to happen, and it is where money may be made.
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mkonomtupu
#11 Posted : Friday, March 28, 2014 4:42:09 PM
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Joined: 2/10/2010
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The key thing to look out for in a rights issue is to know the purpose of the additional funding and the price of the rights issue. If a company has a good balance sheet and management of the company has not done anything awful to weaken the balance sheet then the rights issue is a buy.

I'm all ready for the kengen cash call...bring it
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mkonomtupu
#12 Posted : Monday, March 31, 2014 10:14:54 AM
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Joined: 2/10/2010
Posts: 1,001
Location: River Road
Finally Olkaria brings on 70MW to the gridApplause Applause Applause

Quote:
Kenya’s total power capacity will go up 17.5 per cent after the national grid gets an extra 280 megawatt boost starting 29th March 2014 as efforts to cut electricity costs gather steam.

This will raise the total installed electricity capacity to 1,880 megawatts from 1,600 megawatts in a move aimed at reducing the cost of electricity by substituting diesel powered generators with renewable power.

Power generator KenGen and distributor Kenya Power said on Saturday there will be major power disruptions on the Olkaria power line that serves major urban areas, including Nairobi, at the time the electricity generated at Olkaria will be loaded onto the national grid.

Kengen said that the addition will be done in phases to avoid massive power blackouts in the country.

http://www.nation.co.ke/...6/-/btmx7y/-/index.html

Then also this piece of news on the intense el nino

Quote:
The sub surface temperature of the eastern Pacific Ocean is measuring an 'astounding' six degrees warmer than normal for this time of year.

A team of US atmospheric scientists says that points to a major El Nino event forming to rival the record event nearly 20 years ago.

http://www.abc.net.au/ne...4/strong-el-nino/5340708
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Goldilocks Reloaded
#13 Posted : Monday, March 31, 2014 1:33:17 PM
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Joined: 1/14/2014
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Very good news indeed, not just for those of us in this Mbus but for the country at large. Let's see how the price and the rights play out.
Go for a business that any idiot can run – because sooner or later, any idiot is probably going to run it – Peter Lynch
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murchr
#14 Posted : Wednesday, May 21, 2014 8:01:13 PM
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Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
Electricity generator KenGen has kicked off the search for a transaction adviser to secure funding for the construction of a Sh34.8 billion geothermal plant at Olkaria.

The consultant will assist the electricity generating firm to identify, procure and select a private investor for the 140 megawatt (MW) Olkaria 6 geothermal project, which it plans to begin constructing in the first quarter of next year.

KenGen is also mulling selling a part of the company to a strategic investor in order to raise Sh145 billion of this amount.


http://www.businessdaily...90/-/wr0awv/-/index.html
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
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sparkly
#15 Posted : Thursday, May 22, 2014 6:19:33 AM
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murchr wrote:


[b]KenGen is also mulling selling a part of the company to a strategic investor in order to raise Sh145 billion...


Watching keenly. GOK has a way of screwing minorities by adding and allocating itself shares.
Life is short. Live passionately.
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Kausha
#16 Posted : Thursday, May 22, 2014 6:53:05 AM
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Just sell it! But not on olx. Seriously though I dont see any right thinking investor putting much money here unless tariff to kplc goes up 1.5 times. Hii fund raising sembuse KQ. Kengen maxing on debt shortly and fund raising has to be equity.
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Aguytrying
#17 Posted : Thursday, May 22, 2014 8:59:40 AM
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investing with Gava is like having a majority shareholder who doesn't care what happens to the share price
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mkonomtupu
#18 Posted : Thursday, May 22, 2014 11:05:42 AM
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Location: River Road
Kausha wrote:
Just sell it! But not on olx. Seriously though I dont see any right thinking investor putting much money here unless tariff to kplc goes up 1.5 times. Hii fund raising sembuse KQ. Kengen maxing on debt shortly and fund raising has to be equity.



Aiii wee mboss...you seriously hate this stock. If you are getting JICA loans at 1% and the power plants bring 15%.pa surely you max on the debt and ask the shareholder to pump in more equity soak in more debt and you grow your company. That's how Levarage works and it has nice effect on the EPS of a company so long as you get the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) right.

Anyway, i'm hoping all this negative talk will force down the pricePray Pray
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Aguytrying
#19 Posted : Thursday, May 22, 2014 12:50:45 PM
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Joined: 7/11/2010
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mkonomtupu wrote:
Kausha wrote:
Just sell it! But not on olx. Seriously though I dont see any right thinking investor putting much money here unless tariff to kplc goes up 1.5 times. Hii fund raising sembuse KQ. Kengen maxing on debt shortly and fund raising has to be equity.



Aiii wee mboss...you seriously hate this stock. If you are getting JICA loans at 1% and the power plants bring 15%.pa surely you max on the debt and ask the shareholder to pump in more equity soak in more debt and you grow your company. That's how Levarage works and it has nice effect on the EPS of a company so long as you get the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) right.

Anyway, i'm hoping all this negative talk will force down the pricePray Pray


I know what you are capable of in stocks i dont doubt your strategy. However whats your time frame for investing in Kengen?
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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mkonomtupu
#20 Posted : Thursday, May 22, 2014 1:28:47 PM
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Joined: 2/10/2010
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Aguytrying wrote:
mkonomtupu wrote:
Kausha wrote:
Just sell it! But not on olx. Seriously though I dont see any right thinking investor putting much money here unless tariff to kplc goes up 1.5 times. Hii fund raising sembuse KQ. Kengen maxing on debt shortly and fund raising has to be equity.



Aiii wee mboss...you seriously hate this stock. If you are getting JICA loans at 1% and the power plants bring 15%.pa surely you max on the debt and ask the shareholder to pump in more equity soak in more debt and you grow your company. That's how Levarage works and it has nice effect on the EPS of a company so long as you get the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) right.

Anyway, i'm hoping all this negative talk will force down the pricePray Pray


I know what you are capable of in stocks i dont doubt your strategy. However whats your time frame for investing in Kengen?


time frame 20-30 years(vision 2030), i want to be using kengen dividends for retirement upkeep.
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