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Value NSE Stocks next 10 years
young
#1 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 10:55:49 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,037
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
I have pencilled down a few stocks that will good prospects of growth with 1000% (10 times)
the current value:-

(i) Power
:- Kengen, good prospects of Geothermal and wind power generation.


(ii) Infrastructure
:- I pick on Bamburi hoping they will get their acts right and enjoy accelerated growth, as Kenya economy will witness tremendous infrastructure growth, and cement manufacturers will play a great role.
ARM is better now but on the long term I stick to the bigger Bamburi.
This is due to the fact that beyond capital appreciation, better dividend yield (vintage Bamburi) is important for a long termer like me.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Mainat
#2 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 11:05:07 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/21/2006
Posts: 1,590
Not a complete list without a bank or two. I like the look of the mid-tier
Sehemu ndio nyumba
mwekez@ji
#3 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 5:36:09 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
Mainat wrote:
Not a complete list without a bank or two. I like the look of the mid-tier


@Mainat, what is your take on NBK?
symbols
#4 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 5:48:43 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
10years.Cablessmile,Scangroup,M-pesa bank.No banks or insurance,ten years is a long time for them although they are profitable.Energy is a must but I'm a bit cautious when it comes to energy.Longhorn if they leverage technology.All I need is a technology company.
murchr
#5 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 5:58:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
For me....
Tranny - Civicon will drive this monster
Kengen - We're still very in need of energy
Mpesa - More so if they make an aggressive takeover of the data mkt
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
dunkang
#6 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 6:09:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
KPLC

Especially now that they have been told to put their house in order (i.e. be efficient) and there is no viable alternative to KPLC, atleast for the next 20 years!

Do you see how the mombasa port has improved after the sack warnings?
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

stocksmaster
#7 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 6:15:49 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 410
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
Mainat wrote:
Not a complete list without a bank or two. I like the look of the mid-tier


My thoughts exactly.........the Mid tier banks are the next frontier. The Tier 1 banks seem to have approached the plateau in terms of growth.

Happy Hunting.
the deal
#8 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 6:27:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
In no particular order 1. TransCentury 2. KenGen 3. CFC Stanbic 4. Pan Africa, Liberty & CIC Insurance 5. Umeme 6. Kenol Kobil 7. Housing Finance
mwekez@ji
#9 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 6:31:13 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 5/31/2011
Posts: 5,121
the deal wrote:
In no particular order 1. TransCentury 2. KenGen 3. CFC Stanbic 4. Pan Africa, Liberty & CIC Insurance 5. Umeme 6. Kenol Kobil 7. Housing Finance


Dint know you are in panafric boat. Cheers mate
Mastermind
#10 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 7:22:55 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 1/25/2012
Posts: 1,624
Location: Langley
dunkang wrote:
KPLC

Especially now that they have been told to put their house in order (i.e. be efficient) and there is no viable alternative to KPLC, atleast for the next 20 years!

Do you see how the mombasa port has improved after the sack warnings?

The future of KPLC is uncertain especially after Mps voted for that motion which seeks to liberalise power distribution in the country. I will pick KenGen over KPLC in the energy sector.
If you have built castles in the air, your work need not be lost; that is where they should be. Now put the foundations under them.
dunkang
#11 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 7:31:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
Mastermind wrote:
dunkang wrote:
KPLC

Especially now that they have been told to put their house in order (i.e. be efficient) and there is no viable alternative to KPLC, atleast for the next 20 years!

Do you see how the mombasa port has improved after the sack warnings?

The future of KPLC is uncertain especially after Mps voted for that motion which seeks to liberalise power distribution in the country. I will pick KenGen over KPLC in the energy sector.

So you think starting a power distribution company is as easy as starting a mobile telco?

With the sensitivity of raising electricity bills, do you think any investor would dare start a KPLC alternative?

Just forget about competition in power distribution!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

symbols
#12 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 7:33:12 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
I used to believe the same.Energy generation is under threat if we consider renewable energy.Even if we remove renewable energy from the equation Kengen doesn't have a monopoly in energy generation(long-term) and that plays well for KPLC as they become both a monopsony and a monopoly in energy distribution.I say this because the infrastructure needed for energy distribution is an issue.But then again both face a threat because of advances in renewable energy which might eliminate both the distributor and generator from the equation.

murchr
#13 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 7:38:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
symbols wrote:
I used to believe the same.Energy generation is under threat if we consider renewable energy.Even if we remove renewable energy from the equation Kengen doesn't have a monopoly in energy generation(long-term) and that plays well for KPLC as they become both a monopsony and a monopoly in energy distribution.I say this because the infrastructure needed for energy distribution is an issue.But then again both face a threat because of advances in renewable energy which might eliminate both the distributor and generator from the equation.



Renewable energy =?

Unless definition has changed Wind, Geothermal, Biomass, Hydro - Water, Solar are renewable energy sources

"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
dunkang
#14 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 7:44:33 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
symbols wrote:
I used to believe the same.Energy generation is under threat if we consider renewable energy.Even if we remove renewable energy from the equation Kengen doesn't have a monopoly is energy generation(long-term) and that plays well for KPLC as they become both a monopsony and a monopoly in energy distribution.I say this because the infrastructure needed for energy distribution is an issue.But then again both face a threat because of advances in renewable energy which might eliminate both the distributor and generator from the equation.


Boss, are talking about 50 years to come or is it 10?

KPLC can only be eliminated by energy generated at household level, not wind farms, solar farms nor nuclear power plants. Not unless you are raying there will be portable nuclear power generator since solar and wind are not a viable threat! Or implying diesel gensets?

KPLC is here to stay and KENGEN's life is dependent on it!
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

symbols
#15 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 7:49:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
murchr wrote:
symbols wrote:
I used to believe the same.Energy generation is under threat if we consider renewable energy.Even if we remove renewable energy from the equation Kengen doesn't have a monopoly in energy generation(long-term) and that plays well for KPLC as they become both a monopsony and a monopoly in energy distribution.I say this because the infrastructure needed for energy distribution is an issue.But then again both face a threat because of advances in renewable energy which might eliminate both the distributor and generator from the equation.



Renewable energy =?


Yes renewable energy.Energy is a central theme in all human civilizations whether it is through labour(food) or technology.Our energy needs are just increasing whether through communication,transportation....with billions of people adding pressure on our current capacity.In my view renewable energy has become a necessity.From the smartphone,laptop,car....the profits will induce innovation rather than struggling with tar sands and shale oil that pollute the environment.
symbols
#16 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 7:54:48 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
dunkang wrote:
symbols wrote:
I used to believe the same.Energy generation is under threat if we consider renewable energy.Even if we remove renewable energy from the equation Kengen doesn't have a monopoly is energy generation(long-term) and that plays well for KPLC as they become both a monopsony and a monopoly in energy distribution.I say this because the infrastructure needed for energy distribution is an issue.But then again both face a threat because of advances in renewable energy which might eliminate both the distributor and generator from the equation.


Boss, are talking about 50 years to come or is it 10?

KPLC can only be eliminated by energy generated at household level, not wind farms, solar farms nor nuclear power plants. Not unless you are raying there will be portable nuclear power generator since solar and wind are not a viable threat! Or implying diesel gensets?

KPLC is here to stay and KENGEN's life is dependent on it!


I agree currently nothing looks viable on the household level.What I base my assumption on is something we can't deny,we are advancing at an exponential rate.We are advancing faster and those advancements are feeding on each other.Just look at the past decade.Considering that,the next 50 years might be easily be achieved within the next 10 years.
murchr
#17 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 8:03:35 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
symbols wrote:
murchr wrote:
symbols wrote:
I used to believe the same.Energy generation is under threat if we consider renewable energy.Even if we remove renewable energy from the equation Kengen doesn't have a monopoly in energy generation(long-term) and that plays well for KPLC as they become both a monopsony and a monopoly in energy distribution.I say this because the infrastructure needed for energy distribution is an issue.But then again both face a threat because of advances in renewable energy which might eliminate both the distributor and generator from the equation.



Renewable energy =?


Yes renewable energy.Energy is a central theme in all human civilizations whether it is through labour(food) or technology.Our energy needs are just increasing whether through communication,transportation....with billions of people adding pressure on our current capacity.In my view renewable energy has become a necessity.


Ahem...so how is energy generation under threat?

I fall in love with Kengen by the day, look at how they've positioned themselves wind farms, geothermal, hydro, by hiving off GDC, the risk associated with drilling a miss is mitigated. Once the exploitation of gas begins, diesel will be substituted for gas in Kipevu. Cant wait for the Biomass project that they're planning to start with NCC

If we're going to have light rails soon in Nairobi, then we need an overwhelming supply of Energy
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
symbols
#18 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 8:25:41 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 3/19/2013
Posts: 2,552
murchr wrote:
symbols wrote:
murchr wrote:
symbols wrote:
I used to believe the same.Energy generation is under threat if we consider renewable energy.Even if we remove renewable energy from the equation Kengen doesn't have a monopoly in energy generation(long-term) and that plays well for KPLC as they become both a monopsony and a monopoly in energy distribution.I say this because the infrastructure needed for energy distribution is an issue.But then again both face a threat because of advances in renewable energy which might eliminate both the distributor and generator from the equation.



Renewable energy =?


Yes renewable energy.Energy is a central theme in all human civilizations whether it is through labour(food) or technology.Our energy needs are just increasing whether through communication,transportation....with billions of people adding pressure on our current capacity.In my view renewable energy has become a necessity.


Ahem...so how is energy generation under threat?

I fall in love with Kengen by the day, look at how they've positioned themselves wind farms, geothermal, hydro, by hiving off GDC, the risk associated with drilling a miss is mitigated. Once the exploitation of gas begins, diesel will be substituted for gas in Kipevu. Cant wait for the Biomass project that they're planning to start with NCC

If we're going to have light rails soon in Nairobi, then we need an overwhelming supply of Energy


Exactly,transportation,communication,health,entertainment....name it all come back to energy.There is a huge demand for energy and we still don't have the capacity to cater for it.The global economy can't sustain growth without increasing efficiency and output.Though I'm not saying Kengen or Kplc won't be profitable,I'm just saying their profitability might come under threat.

The best example I can give is computers.They have become smaller,faster and personalized.The current technology today on a smartphone is incomparable to 10,20,30 years before.Energy generation is the same.It still seems viable on a large scale but so did computers.Energy generation will face the same problem,efficiency to scale.I believe innovation will always prevail when backed by necessity.
guru267
#19 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 8:35:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
For me...

1. Housing finance (assuming a P/E ratio of 10 and a shs6 Billion PAT in 2023)

2. Kenya re (assuming a P/E ratio of 10 and a PAT of shs12 Billion in 2023)

3. Co op (assuming a P/E ratio of 15 and a PAT of shs45 Billion in 2023)

4. Bamburi (assuming a P/E ratio of 15 and a PAT of shs55 Billion in 2023)

If the market P/E ratios at the time are through the roof the better! smile

I challenge other wazuans to back their 10 bagger picks with numbers!
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
murchr
#20 Posted : Monday, August 12, 2013 8:39:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/26/2012
Posts: 15,980
symbols wrote:
murchr wrote:
symbols wrote:
murchr wrote:
symbols wrote:
I used to believe the same.Energy generation is under threat if we consider renewable energy.Even if we remove renewable energy from the equation Kengen doesn't have a monopoly in energy generation(long-term) and that plays well for KPLC as they become both a monopsony and a monopoly in energy distribution.I say this because the infrastructure needed for energy distribution is an issue.But then again both face a threat because of advances in renewable energy which might eliminate both the distributor and generator from the equation.



Renewable energy =?


Yes renewable energy.Energy is a central theme in all human civilizations whether it is through labour(food) or technology.Our energy needs are just increasing whether through communication,transportation....with billions of people adding pressure on our current capacity.In my view renewable energy has become a necessity.


Ahem...so how is energy generation under threat?

I fall in love with Kengen by the day, look at how they've positioned themselves wind farms, geothermal, hydro, by hiving off GDC, the risk associated with drilling a miss is mitigated. Once the exploitation of gas begins, diesel will be substituted for gas in Kipevu. Cant wait for the Biomass project that they're planning to start with NCC

If we're going to have light rails soon in Nairobi, then we need an overwhelming supply of Energy


Exactly,transportation,communication,health,entertainment....name it all come back to energy.There is a huge demand for energy and we still don't have the capacity to cater for it.The global economy can't sustain growth without increasing efficiency and output.Though I'm not saying Kengen or Kplc won't be profitable,I'm just saying their profitability might come under threat.

The best example I can give is computers.They have become smaller,faster and personalized.The current technology today on a smartphone is incomparable to 10,20,30 years before.Energy generation is the same.It still seems viable on a large scale but so did computers.Energy generation will face the same problem,efficiency to scale.I believe innovation will always prevail when backed by necessity.


If technology makes it easier and efficient to harness energy the better, what will be required for them is to adapt with the changes.
"There are only two emotions in the market, hope & fear. The problem is you hope when you should fear & fear when you should hope: - Jesse Livermore
.
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