Kenya’s population is projected to hit 77 Million by 2030, up from the current 43 Million (July 2012 est.). Besides the numerous implications, what investment opportunities does this trend present?

Bearing in mind the following:
1. The country is classified as water scarce. 13 million Kenyans lack access to improved water supply and 19 million lack access to improved sanitation. Water problems are bound to rise.
2. Almost 80% of the country is arid and semi-arid lands (ASAL), which cannot support arable farming without technological interventions (e.g. irrigation). The little land available for rainfed crop grow is being lost to surface sealing especially by real estate developments at an alarming rate.
3. Urban population: 22% of total population (2010); rate of urbanization: 4.2% annual rate of change (2010-15 est.).
4. Current demand for housing is approximately 150,000 units per year, against a supply of about 40,000 units. Fast forward this scenario to 2030.
5. Demand for energy will continue to rise with the rising population.
6. Demand for services e.g. transportation, haulage, whatever…

Which sector(s) of the economy would you invest in the long-term (2030 is 17 years from now)?

Construction

Also any initiative that has a renewable approach e.g. cultivating bamboo for charcoal.

food, construction, insurance, electricity & banking!

Cheap plays today in each sector are:

1. Mumias (food & energy)
2. Unga (food)
3. bamburi (construction)
4. HFCK /KCB (construction & banking)
5. kengen (energy)
6. Kenya re/ jubilee (insurance)

if your portfolio is diversified with these cheap but high growth stocks you will not regret in 5years!

Population will result 2 great oppornunities across all sectors of th economy. What matters is th govt providing necessary support thro infrastructure, legislation...its about being ready 4 these opportunities n its already happening!!!

The projected population will be a poorer population and that does not translate to 'traditional' opportunity growth. That is where outside the box thinking comes in.
Housing will be balanced by exponential growth in slums, city villages
Agric. margins will be eaten by production costs (kenya is a water scarce country)
Financial and IT, really for a poorer population?
Energy, mercifully with all the prospecting across EA, margins will be minimal (no effective demand from a poorer population) and on and on

my pesanane thoughts.

77 Million=Poverty crisis. Central planners should focus their efforts on controlling population growth. Kenya can't even feed 38 Million people at the moment what will happen with 77 Million mouths? 1. Agricultural land will be uprooted to make way for settlements=food crisis. 2. Add droughts cos Kenya's forest cover will be destroyed by this settlement 3. Land will be unaffordable=mega slums 4. Unemployment...poverty=Mungiki & MRC..

Kenya is not Japan i.e leadership etc...if Kenya is not an oil producer by 2030 & the population grows at this rate then we are starring at a poverty crisis...like I said agricultural land is only set to shrink who will feed the 77mn? Import food? This is an interesting article http://www.meteor.iastat...course/energy/china.html

I agree wit @guru n diifer wit @pesa n @deal.
1.The problem is govt policy n nt popn increase.
2. Even if we discover commercially viable oil yet there is no govt policy, we willl end up lyk Nigeria et al.
3. Take an example of regional states tryin 2 establish EAC protocal. This is aimed at reachin a huge market from th combined population.
Even if th gdp remains at th moderate 3.3, then an increase in popn will create greater markets n opportunities 4 industries

@Pesanane offcourse nobody is talking about gvmnt policy...this thread is about weather Kenya's projectd 77mn people will transilate into business opportunities...the population of Kenya has been growing at a faster rate over the last decades than that of SA, but come 2012 only 11% of Kenyans can afford morgages compared to 26.5% in South Africa...@Gadaffi an increase in a population doesnt literally translate into a market, for you to understand this you need to look at factors that shape up a market i.e effective demand (which is a factor of income, prices and supply etc) in otherwords you can have a market of 2 billion people if they can't afford your product cos their broke or the price is beyond them then you will have to close down, if its a basic necessity like Power they will steal...now link this with my earlier posts and you will see why 77mn is undesirable!

@deal, this thing has everything to do wit govt policy.
Currently, there r huge tracks of land 'owned'-whether legally or otherwise-by a select few in the society. Again, there r so many pple occupying land in th urban areas: we r simply nt spread out. On th other hand u cn talk of controllin popn. All this has 2 do with govt policy, period.
Whether the increased popn will result 2 poverty is ALL dependent on govt policy, it is th common denominator.