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Investmen options 30M
Pablo
#1 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 9:48:05 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/17/2008
Posts: 567
Location: Nairobi
Hi people

As some of you know i was in a process of building and for 2 years I shared my experiences on this site.

Now the house is complete without liabilities.

Valuation i got gave me a reasonable market value of KES 30M and was actually wondering if i should sell and invest in something that can sustain at least a 1% net monthly return to perpetuity with little risk.

The thing is that am not interested in Bonds unless government backed with a 1.5% net return per month as there is no capital gains.

As there is no monopoly of knowledge I hope i can benefit from the collective knowledge of the men and women of this site.

muganda
#2 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 9:59:20 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/15/2006
Posts: 3,906
@Pablo, the best investment to make is the one that you are damn good in. It appears you are damn good at Property so do not stray too far.

If you believe you can beat interest rates, leverage (rather than sell) the Property and dabble in the new venture.

accelriskconsult
#3 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 10:19:44 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
muganda wrote:
@Pablo, the best investment to make is the one that you are damn good in. It appears you are damn good at Property so do not stray too far.

If you believe you can beat interest rates, leverage (rather than sell) the Property and dabble in the new venture.




I agree. I struggled to think of a better option.
young
#4 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 11:56:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Bwana @Pabio,

Let me start by saying that you can still
multiply your income further within the realm of real estate.
What is important is that you should do your due diligence with regards to legality and authenticity of your transaction.
I am assuming you do not attach any emotion to the completed house and that you have a fairly good cash flow at least to survive minimally without touching the proceeds of the sales of the house. Here are the 4 options .

(i) Re-Invent the Wheel

Sale off this one use the proceeds to position again ie buy another plot , a quarter or one eight in a ripe or semi ripe good suburb,ing on and build leveraging on your experience to offer for sale. You can finish one at a fast pace before starting another still with the same
money. On the long term the 30M you put in will fetch you circa 50M as I reckon you would have improved in your skills aka Question for the architect.

(ii) Buy Into Semi Finished or Uncompleted Buildings

I hope this is applicable in Kenya as I am talking from my country (Nigeria) perspective ?
Some real estate developers do sale semi completed buildings either at the DPC (German Floor) stage or the roofing stage without finishing. Do your mathematics , buy a few and use your skills to complete with a minimal cost
and put it on offer for sale.


(iii) Buy Some Plots in Promising Suburb


As guide ensure that L(location), I(Infrasture)
and D (high demand ) is in place, pick a few
at least an acre, finish all the legal documentation, then go to sleep. In a years time
you should be able to multiply your 30M to at least 40M.


(iv) Go Solo in Plot Buying

Solo here doe not necessarily mean you will not involved experts at a fee to work hand in hand with you.
Move further to promising and well sort after suburbs, you know Kenya more than me. Think of Konza City, Thika road suburb, Kiambu, Kitengela,
Isinya, Lamu port vicinity, get a few acres and actually produce an estate with good layout with
planned infrastructure, carve out some area to build and sale and sale, and put the other side on offer for sale as plots.

My accountant friend started with option (a)
in 2007 he has stepped up or graduated to option (d) and he is now into estate development full time and employs professionals as suburdinate to assist in the spirit of job creation and entrepreneurship.

He started with one estate (Royal Palm Estate),
having combination of plots and build up area, he now controls 3 estates.

www.strategicshelter.com



I hope my 2 cents helps. You may not buy into any of the ideas but it will expand your scope of reasoning to come to a reasonable decision.

Best Regards
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Pablo
#5 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 5:15:04 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/17/2008
Posts: 567
Location: Nairobi
Thank you Mr. Young

I like your first idea possibly apartments in these areas. Ive also looked at the site of Strategic Shelter, this is one massive project he is doing.

Now my mental fight is whether to just put up apartments get a decent income start preparing to retire (maybe teach in a University) or pushing myself on to such a building project. Seems like this guy will double or triple his income.
young
#6 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 6:15:15 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Let me add @Pabio that should you decide to choose option 1 ensure that you choose a choice location to build so as to get a far higer return on your product.
Since building material is the same the difference is the location location and location of the land.

It makes more sence to buy a 7M- 15M plot in south C or Eastleigh (hope spelling is correct) or embakassi,
or down town Parklands /westlands or Gigiri suburbs and build as long as the balance can build the house.
This will give you a ready market after finishing your project to translate your 30M to 50 - 60M.
In essence spend more on the land so that the finished product should appeal to the middle / upper
market segment even better the previous location.
This is a semi passive way of investing in real estate as I reckon just like me you will not like to do it full time.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
luttz
#7 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 7:53:53 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/18/2008
Posts: 377
@ Pablo! I am in a similar situation; currently evaluating my options.

@ Young! The biggest challenge in Nairobi is ideal land that is fairly priced. Land in prime areas like westlands/parklands/Gigiri is out of reach for middle class people. You need 30M if not more for land in most of the above places. Embakassi is not ideal unless you are constructing many units where you can benefit from economies of scale.

I have done comparisons of building in Nairobi and other towns after factoring in the cost of land & construction Vs the demand and rental income and realized that it may be prudent to build in small towns than Nairobi or its environment. Labour is 30% cheaper, the demand is high and the rent is almost the same.
"You've never lived until you've almost died; for those who have fought for it, life has a flavour the protected will never know."
guru267
#8 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 8:26:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
I have always found real estate cumbersome and unnecessarily high risk... I dont think its worth the hassle and stress..

If i invested 10million in a house today and rented it out for 50k per month I would earn a maximum of 600k a year with little room for increment in subsequent years and plenty of running costs! (dont forget STRESS!!)

If i invested 10million in shares of bluechips like KCB, BAT, HFCK etc I would receive a cheque of 1.2million at the end of the year with zero running costs, besides the 5% withholding tax...

Dividend growth is dependent on profit growth smile while rent growth is dependent on inflation Sad

We all know which grows at a faster rate!!

Why would/should i waste my time in real estate business??



Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
Horton
#9 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 9:31:13 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 8/30/2007
Posts: 1,558
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
I have always found real estate cumbersome and unnecessarily high risk... I dont think its worth the hassle and stress..

If i invested 10million in a house today and rented it out for 50k per month I would earn a maximum of 600k a year with little room for increment in subsequent years and plenty of running costs! (dont forget STRESS!!)

If i invested 10million in shares of bluechips like KCB, BAT, HFCK etc I would receive a cheque of 1.2million at the end of the year with zero running costs, besides the 5% withholding tax...

Dividend growth is dependent on profit growth smile while rent growth is dependent on inflation Sad

We all know which grows at a faster rate!!

Why would/should i waste my time in real estate business??






Ms. Guru. I guess every person for their own. However, real estate has outpaced net returns on Stocks worldwide. I have the math somewhere from one of the euro zone unIs on the hard drive.

Here's an example a friend of mine did last year feb,Picked up a property in the coast(Nyali) on the beach for 14m which was still under construction. It was completed april this year He then rented it at 110k a month to last month where the tenant, who was an employee of a multinational offered him 24m, where he turned it down and asked for 29m. They settled at 27. That's double. In 1 year and 2months plus the rent!

Real estate drop in say, NYC was about 40-50%. So if a property was going for $300,000, after the meltdown it dropped to $150,000 but if u compare to stocks eg, lehmans which was completely anhialated or Lloyds Tsb (LYG) which was at one point close to $50 is now $1.83. Compare to the realestate drop where even in the most affected areas was a maximum of 50% not 95%
luttz
#10 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 9:43:25 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/18/2008
Posts: 377
@ Guru267! It all depend son investment strategy. if I invested 10M in real estate for rent purpose, it will earn me at least 100k per month net of tax and other costs. I have done stocks individually and as an organisation and am in agreement with your observation. However, stocks keep fluctuating unlike real estate. I wonder what risk you are talking about, please explain further. Quick example: bought my first plot in 2004 at 4ook, sold it 3 years later at 1.8m, bought half acre at 3.8M in prime location in 2009, it's now fetching 15M, risk free, hassle free. All in all it depends on the strategy. For instance buying an apartment in Kileleshwa for 15M does not make sense to me; instead I will invest the 15M elsewhere (in real estate) where the 15M will multiply by 2 in one year or so. When the fundamentals are sound, real estate is more stable
"You've never lived until you've almost died; for those who have fought for it, life has a flavour the protected will never know."
guru267
#11 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 10:24:53 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Those who are saying they can buy a house of 10M and rent it out for 100k are delusional!

Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
luttz
#12 Posted : Wednesday, July 18, 2012 10:31:15 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/18/2008
Posts: 377
@ Guru267! I could be delusional but I wonder who said he would buy a house at 10M and rent it out at 100K? The language used is very basic even for my PP3 daughter.
"You've never lived until you've almost died; for those who have fought for it, life has a flavour the protected will never know."
Pablo
#13 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 8:24:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/17/2008
Posts: 567
Location: Nairobi
Actually Luttz, this is the same problem I face. Land where you can build something decent on is too expensive. The affordable one is too far off. Unless you buy and wait 2 years for development to come closer.

@guru
Did you know that a house built using 3.2M + 1M for land will sell for 7-8M comfortably. This is a comfortable 4Br single story unit this would take 6-8months to build with ready cash. I dont think stocks can come close to that. Only challenge is its quite some work.
accelriskconsult
#14 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 9:18:42 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/2/2011
Posts: 629
Location: Nai
Pablo wrote:
Actually Luttz, this is the same problem I face. Land where you can build something decent on is too expensive. The affordable one is too far off. Unless you buy and wait 2 years for development to come closer.

@guru
Did you know that a house built using 3.2M + 1M for land will sell for 7-8M comfortably. This is a comfortable 4Br single story unit this would take 6-8months to build with ready cash. I dont think stocks can come close to that. Only challenge is its quite some work.



Pablo how about partnering with landowners who do not have the cash required to develop it? South C, around Madina and Elegance has some nice empty lots of land.
smallfama
#15 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 10:16:48 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 8/15/2010
Posts: 99
Location: nairobi
Pablo, congrats. Let me say u are where I want to be in some years. Is the 30M available in cash or you are yet to dispose the house? My advice would be if the cash is available, just look for land in upcoming suburbs and target middle income earners i.e. areas like Kitengela, Mavoko, Kabete e.t.c You can design a small estate of say 5-10 maisonettes for sale at 7M-8M. If the cash is not enough you can approach a bank and get into an agreement where you borrow and pay interest on the loan during the construction and then interest+principle once you start selling the units. The bank will require you to raise at least 30% of the project amount. I saw such a development of 18 houses in Kitengela and the houses were sold out before completion. Maybe you can give a discount to cash buyers to unlock value faster.
nostoppingthis
#16 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 10:21:00 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/24/2009
Posts: 5,909
Location: Nairobi
Pray Pray @ Pablo, I have re-read the post above and still can't believe you've decided to sell it, but i'm sure you have evaluated and looked at the pros and cons....that is one good house, especially with the promising developments in the area and proximity to the main road.
young
#17 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 11:07:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
nostoppingthis wrote:
Pray Pray @ Pablo, I have re-read the post above and still can't believe you've decided to sell it, but i'm sure you have evaluated and looked at the pros and cons....that is one good house, especially with the promising developments in the area and proximity to the main road.



If the location is so good, let it reflect in the selling price. If 30M is very reasonable he can step it up. I do not believe one has to be emotionally attached to a house you are not living if you know what it takes to build cheaply
and get a wide markup.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
young
#18 Posted : Thursday, July 19, 2012 11:37:03 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
PROBLEM OF GOOD LAND LOCATION

@Pabio & @Luttz,
What I will suggest might be mere theory as I am not on ground there.

There is an average asking price for good locations and the prices are very prohibitive.
I know and believe there are some opportunities when you keep some ears on the ground and interact, this will give you some leads, do not give up.

Most high brow areas have adjoining suburbs which are not as highly priced like the main area.
I was privy to one Mzee that brought 1/2 acre Rongai not far from Bomas land for sale to Faida Investment bank for 5M. I do not know how genuine it is but that is where conducting due diligence and negotiating comes in.
You should not sale your house, emplore these possibilities, encounter one or two missed opportunities t0o be encouraged to sell your house.
I strongly believe this is possible if you keep your ears on the ground. This involves interacting with estate developers, the middle level work force and at times parting with 200 bob
or 500 for Unga !!!.
Equally analyze @accelriskconsult suggetion.

Here in Nigeria it was by intearaction and leads
that helped me to secure a land worth 15M for 7M.
This land is directly behind a high brow area.
I went to estate developer that market land in that vicinity, they asked me what is my budget, I answered 5M, they bursted into laughter, that the minimum land I can see in that vicinity is 20M ie
4 times my budget. I called one of them that looks friendly parted with 750 bob equivaent, got his cell phone number. 3 weeks later he called me for an opportunity closeby to the estate plot they have fully sold and the asking promo price was 7M !!!. I did my due diligence made 50% deposit in Dec 2011. In Jan 2012 the price of the land has been jerked up to 15M, had it been I did not make the deposit they would not have accepted 7M because of demand.
As at now the same land goes for 20M. Why ? Because our MPs swooped on the land with ready CASH in March 2012.A completed duplex house there goes for 70M.

All my dealings on land here in Nigeria and neighbouring Ghana and even far away Uganda has always been by leads from friends or UNGA!!!

You can now understand why I said confidently thatyou can find one within a close vicinity of a high brow suburb irrespective of the high price they are calling.

Stocks @Guru267,
It is difficult to convince a core stock person to real estate. It is as hard as converting a christian to muslim.
We have one local adage :-
If you see the stupid pig using mouth to dig ground, it is seeing something other animals are not seeing "

I have had a good ride with testimonies with real estate because I did my research and was convinced to plunge into it just 4 years ago.
I will continue to combine real estate with stocks.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
Pablo
#19 Posted : Friday, July 20, 2012 8:57:52 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 3/17/2008
Posts: 567
Location: Nairobi
@nostoppingthis - I once got the concept of business from a good asian friend of mine who says everything is on sale except his wife and kids. For the right price he will take off his Watch, shoes and hand them over to u.

@young
That Unga thing sounds like it can actually work. I think Ill just start the looking using it.

Another though why go to upmarket areas while middle/low income areas areas may give u better return. E.g. Ive seen my uncle sell a 4 block of 4 by 2-br apts in South B and use the proceeds to purchase a 1/8th acre in Kariobangi and proceed to put up a 4 storey block of 30 x 1br units. This almost doubled his income.
vky
#20 Posted : Friday, July 20, 2012 10:39:06 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/17/2010
Posts: 572
@pablo hfck is putting up 3 bedroom units in komarock ph 5, prices start at 6m when complete and rents can peak upto 40k/M, with the kind of cash your talking getting maybe 4-5 units, rent them out for about 3yrs while they appriciate in value then sell at maybe 8.5M and you could make 12.5M profit+rental income over the three years, ad say thats a tidy return for a 30M investment in under 5 years if all things go well
'One headache for famous medieval holy people was that someone might murder you to acquire your body parts for the relics trade'
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