Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
KenGen - Just how low can it go?
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
|
I have never been a fan of KenGen, notwithstanding the killing many of us made from its IPO.
I am however aware that there are many here, correct that to read some who are enamoured of it. Given that it is now trading at or BELOW its IPO price, is there an investment case for it especially for short term players?
Cde et al...just what do you see in KenGen? Anyone...what is your worst case scenario for its share price before release of results this September?
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
I see it lighting ur world each and every day.
|
|
|
Rank: Veteran Joined: 2/10/2010 Posts: 1,001 Location: River Road
|
kengen is messed borrowed at 12.5% cash they couldn't use effectively in a year, they got bogged down with procurement bureaucracy they had no guys with treasury experience ended up buying t-bills, borrowed from international financiers to be repaid in forex, shilling lost ground, MoE messed them further by refusing to raise the tariffs, the glory days are gone for kengen wait for it when it does a rights issue.
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
|
A rights issue will be its death knell (did I spell that right?)!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
mkonomtupu wrote:kengen is messed borrowed at 12.5% cash they couldn't use effectively in a year, they got bogged down with procurement bureaucracy (but U r still paying us monthly for the new Kipevu 120MW) they had no guys with treasury experience ended up buying t-bills (cuts our net finance costs, beats banking yet to be deployed funds)
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
mkonomtupu wrote: borrowed from international financiers (good grace periods @ low interest rates) to be repaid in forex, shilling lost ground (a good look @ your elec.bill and u find out that U pay for that too), MoE messed them further by refusing to raise the tariffs, (so we are working on capacity exapansion too) the glory days are gone for kengen wait for it when it does a rights issue (u'll probably grow old waiting).
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
|
To answer my own question... I have just checked on Bloomberg. Seems the share price actually plunged below Kshs 9 in March 2009. So if it is doomsday all over again (which I do not believe), I guess it could have some more distance to cover on the way down. Somehow, I do not think it will get there!
|
|
|
Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 264 Location: Nairobi
|
this topic wuld ve been so funny if it were a ludacris song. HOW LOW CAN YOU GO??!!
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
Muthawamunene wrote:this topic wuld ve been so funny if it were a ludacris song. HOW LOW CAN YOU GO??!! Face down! a*s up! a*s up! Luda!!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 10/13/2009 Posts: 1,950 Location: in kenya
|
This company is abt to touch its IPO price of 11/= its just a few cents away.Govt stocks are just unpredictable. '......to the acknowledgment of the mystery of God, and of the Father, and of Christ; 3 In whom are hid all the treasures of wisdom and knowledge.' Colossians 2:2-3
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2011 Posts: 4,818 Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
|
as low as 10 bob by end month! Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
|
Cde Monomotapa wrote:I see it lighting ur world each and every day. Cde, surely you can do better than this. The last time I checked KenGen's share of the power market was declining fast in favour of the IPPs. But I have this niggling feeling that KenGen will stage a nice turnaround at some point. The question is at what price will the inflexion be?
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 5/26/2009 Posts: 1,793
|
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
1. Kengen alone can't power Vision 2030 (unless u want a time-lag) 2. What better business than one expanding into an undersupplied market (all new out-put is taken up). 3. KPLC is making 200K* new connex p.a (penetration @25% and growing-highrises/real estate, R.E.P). I surely have every reason to own this Co.and have deep sleep while U worry about a price that i'm glad to buy cheaper 
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
Just because KGN's product can't be advertised on TV as "falsely" as say...a beauty product..doesn't make it a monkey..infact it makes it an essential in powering up that darn TV in the 1st place. We are amongst the 1st people to be paid every month!
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
|
Cde Monomotapa wrote:1. Kengen alone can't power Vision 2030 (unless u want a time-lag) 2. What better business than one expanding into an undersupplied market (all new out-put is taken up). 3. KPLC is making 200K* new connex p.a (penetration @25% and growing-highrises/real estate, R.E.P). I surely have every reason to own this Co.and have deep sleep while U worry about a price that i'm glad to buy cheaper See, I knew you could do better. But the question is does KenGen actually have the power to supply the underserved market? Sure KPLC's connections are rising but just how much of the supply is coming from KenGen? Other than the new KIPEVU thermal commissioned earlier this year (or was it?), what additional power has KenGen brought into the grid? And isn't this somewhat negated by the drop (or anticipated drop) in the hydropower throughput as the drought continues to rage on?
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 5/26/2009 Posts: 1,793
|
@ Cde...you know that story about an investor who bought monkeys from villagers....then his employee sold them at a premium back to the villagers with a promise that his boss would come to buy them again? Kengen ain't a monkey...it will make money
|
|
|
Rank: Elder Joined: 6/2/2008 Posts: 1,438
|
KenGen aint a monkey, and I never said it is. In the long run KenGen will make you money but one could have said the same when KenGen was trading at Kshs 19. And in the long run I can mention at least 10 other companies that I believe will make me a lot more money than KenGen.
For now, I am thinking in the short term. I am seeing some opportunity in KenGen - just trying to determine the point at which I strike. I can almost smell it. It's that close. No long term position for me in this. Just imagine if I bought it tomorrow at 11.50 and it gets back to 15. I will be out with my money while leaving those whose average price is 15 still holding on, waiting for the long term.
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
mwanahisa wrote:Cde Monomotapa wrote:1. Kengen alone can't power Vision 2030 (unless u want a time-lag) 2. What better business than one expanding into an undersupplied market (all new out-put is taken up). 3. KPLC is making 200K* new connex p.a (penetration @25% and growing-highrises/real estate, R.E.P). I surely have every reason to own this Co.and have deep sleep while U worry about a price that i'm glad to buy cheaper See, I knew you could do better. But the question is does KenGen actually have the power to supply the underserved market? Sure KPLC's connections are rising but just how much of the supply is coming from KenGen? Other than the new KIPEVU thermal commissioned earlier this year (or was it?), what additional power has KenGen brought into the grid? And isn't this somewhat negated by the drop (or anticipated drop) in the hydropower throughput as the drought continues to rage on? There has been drought in Eastern but not in Central, Rift & Western. The country's drainage flows from West to South (Tana) & finally into the Ocean. The rest of ur questions I will refer U to the Annual report, Half year commentary or let's just wait for the full year (it is better U find out for yourself what new capacity has come on stream in the last 2 FYs.)
|
|
|
Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
|
kenmac wrote:@ Cde...you know that story about an investor who bought monkeys from villagers....then his employee sold them at a premium back to the villagers with a promise that his boss would come to buy them again?
Kengen ain't a monkey...it will make money
Amen.
|
|
|
Wazua
»
Investor
»
Stocks
»
KenGen - Just how low can it go?
Forum Jump
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.
|