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Can the Earnings Season save the NSE?
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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The earning season was kicked off by BAT last week, the numbers coming out of BAT where quiet positive, revenues were up 51%, EPS increased by 13.8% in return BAT declared an interim dividend of SH3.50, can such kind of positive news flow save the bourse? The NSE is down 14% in 2011, the bourse has suffered investor apathy due to double digit inflation which has forced local investors to dig and dig deeper into their pockets to cater for their day to day living expenses leaving little to invest, the NSE is unique in Africa in the sense that it dominated by retail investors, thus factors such as inflation have a greater impact on how the NSE performs. The weak shilling has also put off foreign investors, the key drivers of the bourse in the past 2 years, the shilling has lost about 10% against the green buck in 2011, thus driving most foreign investors portfolios into Forex losses. Read more here http://www.contrarianinvestingk...ings-season-save-the-nse
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/25/2011 Posts: 946
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The answer to your question .Mr Media man . plain and simple : NO !!!!!!!!!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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Aren't the weak shilling and the inflationary effects on NSE great news for the foreign investors? It's like cheap then multiply by 2.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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@ 2012 - the weak shilling provides a good entry point for foreign investors but a haywire in terms of exit...maybe at the time of exit the KES is very weak so that is what discards them.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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2012 wrote:Aren't the weak shilling and the inflationary effects on NSE great news for the foreign investors? It's like cheap then multiply by 2. The shilling dilutes..i.e changing shillings into dollars, you get less dollars.. 
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449
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Watch the Eurozone, NSE catching a cold...Greece, Ireland, Spain & Italy have to be saved to prevent a second recession. This should (already has) limit +ve net foreign investor flow. This factor let alone our economic growth, political uncertainty, higher energy and food prices etc is playing out whilst the latter issues are limiting Wanjiku to consumption. Unless local institutional investors take up the mantle it's time to patiently watch the drop for pickings...
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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FUNKY wrote:@ 2012 - the weak shilling provides a good entry point for foreign investors but a haywire in terms of exit...maybe at the time of exit the KES is very weak so that is what discards them. True. In my opinion all indicators point towards strengthening of the shilling and weakening of the $. Or am I reading this wrong?
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Member Joined: 1/3/2011 Posts: 129 Location: Nairobi
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That doesnt make sense at all. From a foreign investor horizon...cost of hedging the FX exposure outweigh any potential gains on the NSE because of volatility not weakness and honestly as a foreign investor Kenya is the last place i would put money (right now) with all the global uncertainty... Risk aversion is more of a reason than a weaker shilling...
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 4/30/2010 Posts: 1,635
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@ 2012 - you are right...in most other countries $$ is weakening,it is only in countries like Kenya it has strengthened.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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SAC Cohen wrote:Risk aversion is more of a reason than a weaker shilling... What risk, do you mean inflation or politics? It will just take some good rains, positivity and slight reduction in crude for inflation to come down.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/21/2010 Posts: 6,191 Location: nairobi
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Not yet enough blood iam crying for more...guys like britak will get a beating on the poor bourse performance. "Don't let the fear of losing be greater than the excitement of winning."
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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QW25071985 wrote:The answer to your question .Mr Media man . plain and simple : NO !!!!!!!!! Inspired by this here Comrade. 
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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hisah wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:But market is still going down no matter how much ANYONE makes Yes, coz Mr. Market is being distracted by interest rate hikes and a bullish inflation period. Therefore he can't see profits or strong performance at this time. In the meantime the buyers have Mr. Market's ear... hisah wrote:youcan'tstopusnow wrote:Sober, this fall is just a breeze, gale bado... 3600 then 3000. Still scouting for bluechips to buy esp at pain central when 3000 handle is hit. High interest rate & inflation have made 4400 a distant barrier. 3000 will come when the elephant aka scom trades at 3/- or below & equity below 20. Then it will be a proper bias sell market for the buyers Does more need to be said? Walio na maskio... GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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NSE drops to 16 month Low led by Mumias and Safcom Read more here http://contrarianinvesti...faricom-and-mumias-sugar
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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@deal. Good work with the site! Enjoying the better experience on my handset.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:@deal. Good work with the site! Enjoying the better experience on my handset. Yes it looks better on the handset
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/25/2010 Posts: 519 Location: nairobi
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I dont understand why we like making life so hard yet it is not any of einstein's formula....
I think this is the best time to buy for foreigners, or they should convert and wait to buy later @ low price ie thats a double win formula...good rate and good buying time, since the market is already in bad terms...also they should just wait and sell when the schilling is stronger, coz the market will also be better, if they r true investors...isnt patience for investors?
As for the rains, what r u doing about it...? Plant trees...stop complaining!!! If each one of us planted just one tree...where will we be? There would be no food shortages and rate of inflation would be a bit better...
For politics, lets get rid of them...we dont need people who destroy our nation...these guys are less concerned...we need to do something...Imagine, show offs with our own tax money...yet they cant even offer simple assistance...people are dying of starvation, why are they not innovative...dont we have enough funds to build water storage units?
Anyway, when the market is depressed...I get more of it...you may as well ignore this posting...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/13/2011 Posts: 5,964
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I have a tree farm. I expect i'm good in ur books @lovely ;-) ;-)
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Rank: Member Joined: 10/25/2010 Posts: 519 Location: nairobi
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Cde Monomotapa wrote:I have a tree farm. I expect i'm good in ur books @lovely ;-) ;-) Ur the best...we need people like you...What can I offer?
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Can the Earnings Season save the NSE?
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