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KK is Taking Over the Oil Market
mukiha
#1 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2011 3:16:03 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
The 2bob discount was a brilliant idea. I have noticed that on Tuesdays and Fridays there are long queues at their stations.

Bearing in mind that many people fuel their cars twice a week, motorists have now timed their fueling days to coincide with the discount days.

I wonder how much pinch the other dealers are feeling.

Come to think of it; isn't this the kind of market control that NOCK was supposed to be doing?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Kirika
#2 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2011 3:34:11 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/26/2011
Posts: 211
Location: Nairobi

Forget NOCK, half the time they dont have even diesel.

True the qeue's may be long on those 2 days but i wouldnt bet on that to shore up the market share.
Gordon Gekko
#3 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2011 3:35:10 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
Been wondering if they are making cash or just strangling the opposition to death - already the independents are in rigor mortis. I can't recall the margins set by the ERC formula for wholesalers and retailers, but assuming KK is taking up both (unlikely as they have franchised and don't own the petrol stations) the total margin can't be more than ksh 5/- which is the discount I get on Sundays.
Unless they are working on margins of say 50cts and making sure they ramp up the volumes.
Insurgent
#4 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2011 3:36:39 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 8/6/2010
Posts: 594
mukiha wrote:
The 2bob discount was a brilliant idea. I have noticed that on Tuesdays and Fridays there are long queues at their stations.

Bearing in mind that many people fuel their cars twice a week, motorists have now timed their fueling days to coincide with the discount days.

I wonder how much pinch the other dealers are feeling.

Come to think of it; isn't this the kind of market control that NOCK was supposed to be doing?
The worst part about Nock is that they do not have considerable petrol stations in strategic places such as along highways or main shopping centrals where petrol asking is high. Why they don't see the fact might be because they are primates or think like primates. You find them in Nairobi West where the jam is terrible and thus find no need to go in there when they are cheaper by two bob. Mukiha, are you getting the gist here?


"One man gives freely, yet gains even more; another withholds unduly, but comes to poverty. A generous man will prosper; he who refreshes others will himself be refreshed." Rev Canon Karanja.

nostoppingthis
#5 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2011 3:36:39 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 8/24/2009
Posts: 5,909
Location: Nairobi
@Mukiha, you should see the queues on Sunday when it is 3 bob off the pump price....but i'm informed of a place in Buruburu where the fuel remains less 2 shillings any day of the week, not confirmed yet...
jawz1
#6 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2011 3:44:20 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2008
Posts: 205
Location: Nairobi
Kirika wrote:

Forget NOCK, half the time they dont have even diesel.

True the qeue's may be long on those 2 days but i wouldnt bet on that to shore up the market share.

The true picture will come out soon but I believe the market is betting on KK to eat into exiting Shell's share, it's already taken a chunk out of Total smile
"When the pupil is ready to learn, a teacher will appear." -- Zen proverb
jawz1
#7 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2011 3:47:05 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/4/2008
Posts: 205
Location: Nairobi
mukiha wrote:
The 2bob discount was a brilliant idea. I have noticed that on Tuesdays and Fridays there are long queues at their stations.

Bearing in mind that many people fuel their cars twice a week, motorists have now timed their fueling days to coincide with the discount days.

I wonder how much pinch the other dealers are feeling.

Come to think of it; isn't this the kind of market control that NOCK was supposed to be doing?

Don't forget Super Sunday offer! And the K-card which locks in more drivers as well. Didn't you notice NOCK belatedly launcing their fuel card? (Can't even recall it's name now!) d'oh!
"When the pupil is ready to learn, a teacher will appear." -- Zen proverb
mukiha
#8 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2011 3:59:26 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Gordon Gekko wrote:
Been wondering if they are making cash or just strangling the opposition to death - already the independents are in rigor mortis. I can't recall the margins set by the ERC formula for wholesalers and retailers, but assuming KK is taking up both (unlikely as they have franchised and don't own the petrol stations) the total margin can't be more than ksh 5/- which is the discount I get on Sundays.
Unless they are working on margins of say 50cts and making sure they ramp up the volumes.


Wholesalers get 6bob, retailers 3bob.
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
milken
#9 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2011 4:00:10 PM
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Joined: 4/25/2008
Posts: 192
Location: Nairobi
Total and Shell have had cards for more that 10 years and have already taken the big companies with fleets hence KK we be up against an uphill task to convince them to change.
Itari muting'oe ihuragwo ngi ni Ngai
Aguytrying
#10 Posted : Monday, July 11, 2011 4:18:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/11/2010
Posts: 5,040
Kk is definitely taking over. Its just common sense for any motorist to time, tuesdays and fridays. The nock on nairobi west, is constantly at 112.9. I almost thought the tariffs have changed. We'll know soon enough just how effective the price changes have been, from H1 results. I wonder how they are able to sell at these discounts, when the opposition have stayed put.
The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
VituVingiSana
#11 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 4:08:52 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
Yes, Shell & Total have their cards for Corporates but just like how Equity stole a march over BBK & SCBK by catering to the Wanjiku... I pray KK shows the same growth!!!

@milken - There are just so many corporates but many, many more 'individuals' with cars! Some corporates [I was at a KK station] are also moving to KK.

As for NOCK, I do not think they can succeed vs KK on a fair/level playing field.
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Gordon Gekko
#12 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 4:20:50 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 5/27/2008
Posts: 3,760
But the KK could be a victim of the success of this strategy. Any OMC is not allowed to hold more than 25% of the retail market, so I guess someone at ERC is already plotting how to hack KK down - They are at 31%??
dunkang
#13 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 4:22:21 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,818
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
are you guys discussing Airtel, Yu or something similar?
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Wendz
#14 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 5:03:08 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/19/2008
Posts: 4,268
Kirika wrote:

Forget NOCK, half the time they dont have even diesel.

True the qeue's may be long on those 2 days but i wouldnt bet on that to shore up the market share.


I wouldnt even think the strategy was to shore up the market share.... it might have been to restore confidence that had been eroded during all those fights they had and have something nice to talk about KK and maintain their market share.... and clearly, it worked.... instead of consumers and investors seeing them as a horse throwing its last kicks, the fact that they could still give discounts regained the public confidence and the sour taste of the bad news quickly left our mouths/memories....
jawz1
#15 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 5:46:50 PM
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Joined: 8/4/2008
Posts: 205
Location: Nairobi
Gordon Gekko wrote:
But the KK could be a victim of the success of this strategy. Any OMC is not allowed to hold more than 25% of the retail market, so I guess someone at ERC is already plotting how to hack KK down - They are at 31%??

@Gordon Gekko, Total market share dropped to 24.1% while KK gained to 23.5%, no one has above 25%. But volumes can go higher up which is more significant smile
Link: KK market share improves
"When the pupil is ready to learn, a teacher will appear." -- Zen proverb
mwanahisa
#16 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 5:53:21 PM
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Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
jawz1 wrote:
@Gordon Gekko, Total market share dropped to 24.1% while KK gained to 23.5%, no one has above 25%. But volumes can go higher up whicg is what is more significant smile
Link: KK market share improves


I thought so. Thanks for the link.
VituVingiSana
#17 Posted : Tuesday, July 12, 2011 10:21:36 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,223
Location: Nairobi
mwanahisa wrote:
jawz1 wrote:
@Gordon Gekko, Total market share dropped to 24.1% while KK gained to 23.5%, no one has above 25%. But volumes can go higher up whicg is what is more significant smile
Link: KK market share improves


I thought so. Thanks for the link.
Even if KK hits 25%, they are OK since KK might not be allowed to acquire stations from competitors but they can grow organically...

What's more is that once KK hits 25%, it can look for MAXIMUM profits rather than market share...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Kirika
#18 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 9:38:40 AM
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Joined: 1/26/2011
Posts: 211
Location: Nairobi

Pardon my ignorance, but is market share determined by the number of outlets or is it by the volume of sales?
mwanahisa
#19 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 9:42:00 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
Kirika wrote:

Pardon my ignorance, but is market share determined by the number of outlets or is it by the volume of sales?

I would expect the latter but the former does feed into volumes.
milken
#20 Posted : Wednesday, July 13, 2011 12:22:50 PM
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Joined: 4/25/2008
Posts: 192
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana et al

Total lost market share owing to loss of Agrreko contract not because of KK card. Market share in itself does not lead to profits since one may have to sacrifice the margins inorder to sell more.

Cards do not make that much cash for the OMC since most organizations buying will insist on discounts owing to the huge volume of business. However, when the same organization agrees to buy lubes from you and LPG for staff (you start a scheme) the OMC recoups the lower margins.

The most profitable segment is retail i.e. service stations. Total leads here with over 35% share of the fuel business. However with ERC limiting the margins, more cash is being made from non fuel items in the stations such as rent on ATMS, restaurant, shop, service bay etc. Needless said KK stations lack competitiveness in this area. KK may grow but it will be some time before thay threaten Total in the retail segment.

Additionally there is no rule limiting one's market share (Total and Shell have at point in the recent past each controlled in excess of 30% of the market share)
Itari muting'oe ihuragwo ngi ni Ngai
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