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WHAT TO DO IN A BEAR MARKET
The Merchant
#1 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 1:33:35 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
Dear wazua fellows. Please read the article below. It may soothe those feelings of anxiety that must be troubling you now.smile It is an article from CNN Money and speaks a whole lot of truth. @vvs will surely agree.

NEW YORK (Money) -- Question: I'm seeing my account values take a daily dive and I've lost all of my gains from the past year, and then some. I'm hearing recession predictions and I'm wondering if I should cut my losses and get out of the market now. Do you think this is the beginning of a bear market?

The Mole's Answer: Don't panic! The bad news is I have absolutely no idea what the market will do in the short-term, nor does anyone else. The good news is that I'm 100 percent confident that:

The market is a great long-term investment.
The ups and downs of the market impact our financial futures a whole lot less than our reactions to it.
Unfortunately, we seem unalterably programmed to buy high and sell low. And even though history shows us time and again the error of this, we keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result.

The market is now down about 10 percent for the year and more than 15 percent from its high in October of last year. Sensationalistic headlines read something like "worst start ever for the stock market," and "as January goes, so goes the year." Such anxiety-inducing hype makes it virtually impossible for us to ignore the doom and gloom and just stay the course, but that's exactly what you should do.

Behaving badly
The current crisis du jour in the market, like almost all of them, has its roots in how we invest. It was incredibly easy three months ago to say that we have a high tolerance for risk. We had just seen our U.S. stock portfolio nearly double and our international stock portfolio nearly triple. With such a whopping gain, one would think we would surely be able to handle a small 15 percent pullback, right?

The truth is that most of us are fair weather investors. Our tendency to be risk tolerant in good times, and risk averse in bad times, causes us to feel a bit bullet-proof. The result is getting into stocks when the market is up, and doing the traditional "panic and sell" when it turns downward.

It may be hard for many of us to remember back to October of 2002 when stocks bottomed out, having fallen by nearly half since 2000. To jog your memory, go back to an article written by Jason Zweig, at the bottom of the bear market: Are you wired for wealth? Jason gave us a glimpse into our minds and explained why most of us were panicking and selling at the exact wrong time.

How to be an investor
It's easy to consider yourself an investor in good times, but it's the down markets that separate the real investors from the speculators. An investor understands that, after five straight up years in the market, a pullback is just part of the game. It's okay to feel the pain as long as you don't let it drive you to panic. As much as I hate to admit it, I look at my own portfolio daily for some reason I'll never be able to explain. I feel your pain, but I know my instinct to sell is dead wrong.

An investor needs to understand and have faith in the fact that capitalism works. Not to mention the fact that in the history of the U.S. stock market, it has only lost value a couple of times over a ten year period. Because rebalancing is a critical part of one's investing, now is the time to reallocate more toward equities, as long as one had a proper asset allocation strategy in the first place. After all, it's better to buy things on sale, isn't it?

My Advice: If you can't sleep at night wondering how much more stocks will fall, then the stock market was never right for you in the first place. Moving in and out of the market is likely to give you a low return.

On the other hand, if you can accept that bear markets are a necessary part of stock market investing, then look at this as a buying opportunity. If the market goes down further, it's an even better buying opportunity.

In the words of Warren Buffett, "Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful." That may be easier said than done, but it's good advice.

smile
VituVingiSana
#2 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 2:06:16 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,217
Location: Nairobi
LOL... I might be The Mole
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
annsal
#3 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 2:11:20 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 12/18/2009
Posts: 316
Location: nairobi


very interesting and soothing
God loves a Trier!
The Merchant
#4 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 2:35:31 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
VituVingiSana wrote:
LOL... I might be The Mole

LOL...Laughing out loudly I actually thought you were!Laughing out loudly
VituVingiSana
#5 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 2:49:57 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,217
Location: Nairobi
http://www.berkshirehath...com/letters/letters.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
My 2 cents
#6 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 2:54:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,075
If Nakumatt were having a major sale would we ask what to do?

So here's my answer to what to do in a bear market; BUY BUY BUY all your favourite shares at a reduced price.
VituVingiSana
#7 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 3:11:34 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,217
Location: Nairobi
WB asked... Kwani, would you be upset that your supermarket had a discount [& you had cash] compared to last week [& you needed the items]?

Forget what you paid last week... if the price is good/discounted [compared to the alternates] then buy more!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
mwanahisa
#8 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 3:22:46 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2008
Posts: 1,438
VituVingiSana wrote:
WB asked... Kwani, would you be upset that your supermarket had a discount [& you had cash] compared to last week [& you needed the items]?

Forget what you paid last week... if the price is good/discounted [compared to the alternates] then buy more!


Well said. The hassle is that one runs out of money at some point. When you get to that point and the market continues falling, I guess that is the time to take off from the market for a while and wait for TIME to do its thing. Sooner or later IT DOES and the market gets back into equilibrium.
The Merchant
#9 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 3:43:34 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 5/24/2010
Posts: 846
Location: KENYA
@Mwanastocks, very true indeed. When the money runs out one has to give the market time. That's the hardest part.
young
#10 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 3:55:34 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/20/2007
Posts: 2,048
Location: Lagos, Nigeria
Two things

(1) in stocks one should not depend on one stock exchange alone. As we are lamenting there is bullish run on petroleum stocks in US, Canada and Hong kong markets !!!


(ii) One should not depend only on stocks for a living as there are many things beyond our control besides the basic fundamentals.
The wazua spirit as members is to educate and inform and learn from others within the limit of what we know in any chosen area irrespective of our differences in tribes, nationalities, etc. .
mufasa
#11 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 4:02:37 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 4/15/2008
Posts: 216
My 2 cents wrote:
If Nakumatt were having a major sale would we ask what to do?


DroolDrool Drool If this train leaves you, the next one might just be in 2012 or beyond.
Do it today! Tomorrow is promise to no-one.
jimmy1
#12 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 10:28:02 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/11/2011
Posts: 240
Location: jamuhuri ya kenya
there was a similar thread in october 2008. My favorite quote is from a wazuan called young from lagos nigeria.......
"Plan to buy at a price that is far below your thinking,the kind of price YOUR BRAIN CANNOT COMPREHEND. It is far cheaper and less stressful to delay to buy at a good price than to buy and regret thereafter."
http://www.wazua.co.ke/f...aspx?g=posts&m=12380
youcan'tstopusnow
#13 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 11:33:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
In a bear, its not the worst thing to hold an OTC share, say CIC. Not really affected by current goings-on as they are not traded frequently. I bet the gang of PKoli, Sasha, TUPAC, Layman, etc can attest to this.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
VituVingiSana
#14 Posted : Thursday, March 10, 2011 11:45:58 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,217
Location: Nairobi
Kwani? What difference does it make whether it is OTC or not...???

In a bear market the 'liquidity' for OTC shares dries up [just as kawaida] expect at lower prices... Simple!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
Cde Monomotapa
#15 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 6:31:41 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/13/2011
Posts: 5,964
PROPAGANDA HII!! SELL, SELL, SELL!! Oh yes.. !!MARTHA KARUA FOR PRESIDENT!!
erifloss
#16 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 8:05:17 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/21/2010
Posts: 514
Location: Nairobi
Cde Monomotapa wrote:
PROPAGANDA HII!! SELL, SELL, SELL!! Oh yes.. !!MARTHA KARUA FOR PRESIDENT!!

I'd pick Peter Kenneth over Martha any day. His leadership skills are impecable when compared to Martha's so hold your horses and lets discuss business and not guys who sunk us down.
'They say money cannot buy me happiness but when i compare when i had none and now, i'm happier' Kevin O'leary
Gadaffi
#17 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 8:11:37 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 2/13/2011
Posts: 284
Location: Nairobi
@ all,

why HOLD when the market is going down. If u have a stock that has already made good returns, just sell the stock and wait for ur favourite stock price to drop n then buy. my advice, jus SELL what u have already gained n then wait for a price dip 2 BUY another
murenj
#18 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 11:21:15 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 7/22/2008
Posts: 851
Location: nairobi
Gadaffi wrote:
@ all,

why HOLD when the market is going down. If u have a stock that has already made good returns, just sell the stock and wait for ur favourite stock price to drop n then buy. my advice, jus SELL what u have already gained n then wait for a price dip 2 BUY another

in the last bear I lost 52 percent of my portfolio value through this holding crap. I SOLD AT 15%loss and plan to re enter counters that have lost more than 30%.............same money more shares........more value...........
moneydust
#19 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 12:16:31 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 1/31/2007
Posts: 304
murenj wrote:
Gadaffi wrote:
@ all,

why HOLD when the market is going down. If u have a stock that has already made good returns, just sell the stock and wait for ur favourite stock price to drop n then buy. my advice, jus SELL what u have already gained n then wait for a price dip 2 BUY another

in the last bear I lost 52 percent of my portfolio value through this holding crap. I SOLD AT 15%loss and plan to re enter counters that have lost more than 30%.............same money more shares........more value...........


Before selling is always good to understand the cause and effect principle.Someone needs to tell us who are these people selling at such low prices and their motivation.Without understanding that one might find himself making all the wrong moves..
In the last bear the motivation was the credit crises in europe..

So whats the current motivation??? the facts must b right.
mukiha
#20 Posted : Friday, March 11, 2011 1:24:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
You only lose when you sell!

Otherwise the loss is only conceptual...

So, EQT has dropped from 30 to 24, but its earnings were more than 50% up. Have you lost 6 bob or gained 50% in profits?

You only lose when you sell!
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
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