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Scubidu
#451 Posted : Sunday, August 08, 2010 7:25:00 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
I see you're still going strong. How are you doing these days? Can't believe you still keep this stuff up. Well done.
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
Scubidu
#452 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 2:32:53 PM
Rank: Veteran

Joined: 9/4/2009
Posts: 700
Location: Nairobi
KK. What play are you making? You following this stuff?

Read more

http://www.reuters.com/a...le/idUSTRE67832X20100810
“We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
karanjakinuthia
#453 Posted : Saturday, August 14, 2010 1:41:14 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Scubidu. I am well thanks, its good to see your head above water. How are things in your neck of the woods?

Nothing has changed. All that I have chronciled is still in play. Gold is having its annual summer of rest and restitution. August/September may herald a third attempt at the overhead resistance of $1225.

History is replaying itself as the yellow metal made three attempts before surmounting $1000.

karanjakinuthia
#454 Posted : Sunday, August 15, 2010 12:18:47 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
States in the Red

Most states have addressed or still face gaps in their budgets totaling $121 billion for fiscal year 2011:

http://s.wsj.net/public/...GET100414_20100414.html

karanjakinuthia
#455 Posted : Sunday, August 15, 2010 1:51:58 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
The Federal Reserve is coming round to provide more stimulus to the ailing America economy through quantitative easing (a fancy word for money printing). Where previously it was the banks that were lining up, cap in hand, for bailouts, Main Street now seeks employment benefits extensions and bailouts of indebted States.

Debt has been and will continue to be the grim reaper of empires.

"FORTUNE -- The Great Depression. Wall Street in 1987. Japan in 1997. Points of economic collapse are generally crystal clear in the rear-view mirror. Professional politicians in Japan have been telling stories for 20 years as to why they can prevent economic stagnation. In the US, the storytelling started in 2007. All the while, stock market and real-estate prices have repeatedly rallied to lower-highs, then collapsed again, to lower-lows...."

Read more:

http://money.cnn.com/201...yment.fortune/index.htm

karanjakinuthia
#456 Posted : Monday, August 16, 2010 10:31:03 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Africa rises with the East on the back of an improving political climate and most importantly, the rule of law.

"Gabon, a small west African oil-producer seeking to emerge from decades of dictatorship, is planning $4.5bn of agriculture and infrastructure ventures in what would rank among the biggest investment packages by Asian powers in Africa.

In an announcement timed to coincide with the celebrations of the 50th anniversary of Gabon’s independence from France, the government said Indian and Singaporean groups would invest in timber, palm oil, housing and road-building projects as well as constructing a special economic zone...."

Read more:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...-86dd-00144feabdc0.html

karanjakinuthia
#457 Posted : Monday, August 16, 2010 10:49:08 AM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
The Chinese economic miracle is one to behold. Global supremacy is at hand. The question on many economists minds is when the United States will be upstaged. The answer, according to economist Martin Armstrong, lies in history for in 1914, Britain had peaked as the global superpower and the U.S. was the emerging giant at the time. In 1931, the tables turned when Britain requested for a moratorium on its debt to save it from default, while the U.S. attracted global capital as a safe harbour as nations defaulted on debt in South America and Europe. Its elevated state resulted in it owning 76% of the world's gold reserves by 1945.

Fast forward to present day as the 33 debt ridden states of the U.S. threaten to snip any green shoots of recovery that sprout. Meanwhile China is jostling for second place, with an eye for the top seat. In this race, bear in mind that the latter is the banker to the former.

"Japan’s economy grew at less than a fifth of the pace economists estimated last quarter, pushing it into third place behind the U.S. and China and adding to evidence the global recovery is faltering.

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 0.4 percent in the three months ended June 30, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. The median estimate of 19 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for growth of 2.3 percent. The data reinforce International Monetary Fund predictions that China will be the No. 2 economy by the end of 2010...."

Read more:

http://www.bloomberg.com...ess-than-estimated.html

karanjakinuthia
#458 Posted : Tuesday, August 17, 2010 4:26:01 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
Private Equity Group Seeking Financial Institution Partner

A Singapore based private equity firm seeks to acquire and/or JV with a commercial banking institution to invest private equity for them.

Their criteria is:

1. Minimum USD$1 Billion + of pre existing, mandated deal flow pipeline including exhaustive dd and audited financials.


2. Minimum transaction size USD$100 million + of already established ebitda of USD$25 million + each.


3. Management easy to deal with and able to efficiently execute detailed instructions.


4. Strong financial center branch network and commercial brand.


5. Not currently managing private equity.


If you know of a viable candidate, please e-mail me at karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com

hisah
#459 Posted : Wednesday, August 18, 2010 12:22:37 AM
Rank: Chief

Joined: 8/4/2010
Posts: 8,977
The big question is, if there will be a global de-leveraging of funds from global stocks as the global econ fundamentals continue regressing, why should the US $ rally against other G10 currencies, which are equally in the same boat? Maybe the Aussie and the Kiwi $ or Cando (C$) are a bit better, but the whole global recovery shenanigans requires a reset of the financial system to stop this pretext which has dragged on for too long. How will the world react to this shock syndrome without a new reserve currency? I'm particularly interested with Sept 19 2010. The one decision then will be either the Fed bank decides on another debt rally aka stimulus or QE version 2.0 (senseless money printing) or global currency debasement... Either of the choices will be bitter pills... I'm also interested in seeing how the EA markets will handle such a decision as well as the emerging markets... As for global stocks the reaction is 90% down south...

Btw are you shorting any of the indices - SPX, DJIA, DAX, FTSE, Nikkei etc? They look reap to roll down like in Sept 2008.
$15/barrel oil... The commodities lehman moment arrives as well as Sovereign debt volcano!
karanjakinuthia
#460 Posted : Wednesday, August 18, 2010 8:27:47 PM
Rank: Member

Joined: 11/13/2006
Posts: 551
Location: Nairobi
@ Hishah. There are five asset classes that are perpetually competing for investor attention:

* Debt
* Stocks
* Technology
* Commodities
* Real Estate

Currencies are the transmission mechanism that investors can gauge their losses or gains.

During the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931, the Dollar rallied as a safe haven to South American and European nations who defaulted on their debt obligations. Therefore, a present day strong Dollar is a replay of the safe haven status that the Greenback enjoys in tumultuous times.
Interestingly, stocks boomed between 1932 and 1937 because, remember, the world was gripped by a debt crisis causing a flight from debt. Technology had already enjoyed in day in the sun, fueling the 1921 - 1929 bull run concentrated in automotive and airline stocks. Commodities had peaked earlier in 1921 whilst real-estate was a no-go zone; property prices hit 30 cents an acre in Virginia during the Great Depression.

Fast forward to present day and the sovereign debt structures of the Western world are being called into question. Investors have two options left in the wake of the 2000 Dot Com (technology) bust, 2007 real estate bust and 2010 Sovereign Debt Crisis - commodities and stocks.

One more point to note, performance of the stock market is not always an indicator of economic performance. Take for instance the Shanghai Composite Index which was in decline between 2001 and 2006 whilst the Chinese economy was steaming ahead. Therefore, global stock markets may boom as an alternative to the debt markets whilst economies stagnate or even decline.

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