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PLAYING THE MARKET-A NEW YEAR RESOLUTION
sparkly
#261 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 1:20:56 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@SM quit that marketing of pharmaceuticals job, do this stocks play thingy for 5 years, get yourself an 18 year old ga-tangerine and retire to a remote exotic island.
Life is short. Live passionately.
gladiator
#262 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 3:06:31 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 8/25/2006
Posts: 101
@stockmaster With 100 shares you will get 10 rights not 100. However, buying 100 shares of a rights stocks is a strategy I use when I want to participate in a lowly priced rights issue but don't like the stock in general. Basically, buy 100 shares, get the rights allocated to you, pay for the shares, apply for a boatload of additional shares (as much I can afford), wait for the allocation (possible refund if oversubscribed), sell the additional shares quickly. I have done this a couple of times with DTB in 2007 getting shares at 70/- and selling at 87/-, HFCK in 2008 at 20/- and selling at 24/- among many others. Have to be careful to do it only when the dilution is not massive like in KCB 2010 or in a massive bear market like H2 2008, 2009.

Plus, when you buy the shares, you pay no commission. Only when you sell :)
cnn
#263 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 10:11:30 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
@stocksmaster,they have already given books closure for next Wednesday without the price details,so when they do i dont see the price reacting,but on a six months outlook i bow to you.
mwenza
#264 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 10:15:13 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 4/22/2009
Posts: 2,863
youcan'tstopusnow wrote:
mwenza, are you going to use the bus fare you set aside to board the same bus as stocksmaster?



@youcant............Yes i will, but will do it early next week as per his advice.

Happy Hunting.
IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
qw25041985
#265 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 12:29:01 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@mwenza. U are actually investing real money. U really ar brave .
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
the deal
#266 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 1:05:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
Well the question is why did SM panic sell like that?
2012
#267 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 1:19:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 12/9/2009
Posts: 6,592
Location: Nairobi
the deal wrote:
Well the question is why did SM panic sell like that?


Clearly it was so that he could panic buy when it comes down.smile

BBI will solve it
:)
stocksmaster
#268 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 1:54:01 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 410
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
STANCHART RIGHTS ISSUE

According to the media advert placed by the company, the details are as follows:
1. Rights issue shares to be offered: 15,109,323
2. Target Amount: Ksh 2,499,837,490

From the above, the following can be concluded:
1. The offer price will be about Ksh 166
2. The shares will be offered at a ratio of 1 share for every 18 held (may be set at one for every 20 shares to avoid too many odd lots)
3. After rights, the total issued and paid up shares for Stanchart will be 287,077,133.
4. The shareholders approved 27M additional shares during the AGM. With only 15M on offer, what is the plan for the other 12M shares (so that the paid up share capital amounts to 300M as stipulated in the AGM?

I intend to pick up my rights as they are well priced. The half year results have delayed maybe because of the rights issue, but they will be very interesting especially if an interim dividend accompanies them.

Happy hunting
cnn
#269 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 6:34:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/17/2009
Posts: 1,619
A hiccup,growth at half year for SCBK has failed to follow on the first quarter.PBT is up 21%,i expected better.
guru267
#270 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 8:30:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
According to the NSE The current market sell off is being sparked by foreigners because of the poor outlook of the US economy... I completely ignored the role of foreigners in our market but now i want to thank them for the opportunity to get bargains
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
the deal
#271 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 8:58:32 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@guru u cant ignore foreigners at the NSE anymore...their here to stay and they will influence the NSE day to day...look at the JSE and see how that market tracks the DOW JONES...
qw25041985
#272 Posted : Thursday, August 12, 2010 9:06:13 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
According to my charts. The market needs to shed some 100 points or so to find its next support .at arround 4400 points. But i believe bargain hunters like @guru and etal will support it .
Indeed US economy doesnt look gud add the Chinesse real estate bubble and you have nervous investors all over the world .
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
sparkly
#273 Posted : Friday, August 13, 2010 10:12:44 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
cnn wrote:
A hiccup,growth at half year for SCBK has failed to follow on the first quarter.PBT is up 21%,i expected better.

The effects of failing to increase their branch network when everybody was doing so are beginning to show. Their growth in profit the last 2 years was driven by earnings from government securities where interest was in the double digits. Other banks were shouldering high branch costs. Now that Tbills rates are approaching 1% wataimba.
Life is short. Live passionately.
stocksmaster
#274 Posted : Tuesday, September 14, 2010 10:50:14 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 410
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
ACTIVITY 11:
A} PURCHASE OF 10,000 KCB SHARES AT AVERAGE PRICE OF KSH 18.75
B} TAKING UP OF 111 STANCHART RIGHTS AT OFFER PRICE OF KSH 165.45

COST OF ACTIVITY 11:
A} COST OF 10,000 KCB SHARES = KSH 187,500
Add 2% transaction costs = KSH 3,750
Total cost of Transaction = KSH 191,250
B} COST OF TAKING UP 111 SCBK RIGHTS =KSH 18,365

TOTAL COST OF ACTIVITY 11: KSH 209,615

CASH IN HAND AFTER ACTIVITY 10: KSH 462,890

CASH IN HAND AFTER ACTIVITY 11: KSH 253,275

SUMMARY AFTER ACTIVITY 11:
SHARES: 10,000 KCB SHARES
2,111 STANCHART SHARES
CASH IN HAND: KSH 253,275

RATIONALE OF ACTIVITY 11:
A)STANCHART:The company will soon be announcing the Q3 results accompanied with an interim dividend. I remain bullish on this share.
SCBK (and BAT(K)) are scheduled for some capital gains and interim dividend payments after the Q3 release of results next month.
B)KCB: At current share price, i find KCB hard to ignore. Currently trading at a trailing P/E of 12.3. The forward EPS for 2010 (I estimate it at Ksh 2 per share)should almost approximate the 2009 EPS of KSH 2.05 despite the additional issued and paid up shares.
(Estimated Net profit for 2010:Ksh 5.9B)
A generous dividend payment of 50-60% of profit is anticipated (KCB rights ensured company has a health capital hence reducing need to withhold too much of profit).
In Feruary-March 2011, when the 2010 results are released (and most of the shares have been mopped up by institutional investors), the KCB share should be trading at a trailing P/E of at least 13 (hence a target price of at least Ksh 26).
I will be strengthening my position in KCB on price dips (below Ksh 19)
(A more detailed analysis of KCB to follow).

Happy hunting.
qw25041985
#275 Posted : Tuesday, September 14, 2010 11:22:54 PM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
I never did so much fundermental research on KCB but i bought it on pure technical terms.
As for STANCHART i can only play it in the fantasy market.And guyz watch out men , i am coming up lik a tsunami !!!!!!!!
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
youcan'tstopusnow
#276 Posted : Tuesday, September 14, 2010 11:30:46 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
I also feel that institutional investors will be taking their positions on KCB soon.
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
teletalk
#277 Posted : Wednesday, September 15, 2010 1:57:55 AM
Rank: New-farer


Joined: 9/3/2010
Posts: 26
Location: Nairobi
Kudos Stockmaster,

Reading the thread and analysis of the stock market, i can say not having knowledge in stock have learnt a great deal.
Keep us educated for those of us who still learning how to trade
happy selling
guru267
#278 Posted : Wednesday, September 15, 2010 2:25:30 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
@stocksmaster Applause to you on KCB... I also found it extremely hard to ignore...

You've also boosted my confidence in my huge buy at 18.9 bob average....

I'm patiently waiting for its imminent rise.
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
qw25041985
#279 Posted : Wednesday, September 15, 2010 2:55:58 AM
Rank: User


Joined: 5/9/2010
Posts: 1,418
Location: Nai
@stockmaster. i wish i took ur advice on Mumias @ tha beginin of the year.U trully have foresight...clap ! clap ! clap ! clap ! clap ! clap !
But i willnot be left out on KCB this time. I dnt want to suffer what guru called the "missd the boat" syndrome ..LOL
Your future depends on your dreams so go to sleep !
dave.kim
#280 Posted : Wednesday, September 15, 2010 1:51:24 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/25/2010
Posts: 176
stocksmaster wrote:
ACTIVITY 11:
RATIONALE OF ACTIVITY 11:
A)STANCHART:The company will soon be announcing the Q3 results accompanied with an interim dividend. I remain bullish on this share.
SCBK (and BAT(K)) are scheduled for some capital gains and interim dividend payments after the Q3 release of results next month.
B)KCB: At current share price, i find KCB hard to ignore. Currently trading at a trailing P/E of 12.3. The forward EPS for 2010 (I estimate it at Ksh 2 per share)should almost approximate the 2009 EPS of KSH 2.05 despite the additional issued and paid up shares.
(Estimated Net profit for 2010:Ksh 5.9B)
A generous dividend payment of 50-60% of profit is anticipated (KCB rights ensured company has a health capital hence reducing need to withhold too much of profit).
In Feruary-March 2011, when the 2010 results are released (and most of the shares have been mopped up by institutional investors), the KCB share should be trading at a trailing P/E of at least 13 (hence a target price of at least Ksh 26).
I will be strengthening my position in KCB on price dips (below Ksh 19)
(A more detailed analysis of KCB to follow).

Happy hunting.

@stckmaster,pretty good analysis there. what is ur take on equity?
Rule No.1 is never lose money. Rule No.2 is never forget rule number one
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