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CFC-Stanbic 2009
youcan'tstopusnow
#181 Posted : Wednesday, July 21, 2010 11:19:54 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
gladiator wrote:
@youcan'tstopusnow One big difference is that KPLC preference shares are held by the government while Total's are not

gladiator, asante for pointing that out
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
guru267
#182 Posted : Thursday, July 22, 2010 11:31:38 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
Whether preference shares are owned by the government or not they are still open to conversion which will cause dilution
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
VituVingiSana
#183 Posted : Thursday, July 22, 2010 12:16:32 PM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
guru267 wrote:
Whether preference shares are owned by the government or not they are still open to conversion which will cause dilution
I hope sanity prevails and conversion is only allowed at 300/-. The current price is 'discounted' due to uncertainty + lack of FY 2009-10 results which I expect will be much better than last year!
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
the deal
#184 Posted : Monday, July 26, 2010 3:09:56 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
i hope people took their profits here...
mukiha
#185 Posted : Monday, July 26, 2010 4:04:44 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
the deal wrote:
i hope people took their profits here...

You panic too quickly... it's back to 85 and holding...and bids out-number asks by 3:1...

Wacha haraka; that guy asking for 93 will see his order serviced....
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
guru267
#186 Posted : Monday, July 26, 2010 7:15:55 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 1/21/2010
Posts: 6,675
Location: Nairobi
VituVingiSana wrote:
guru267 wrote:
Whether preference shares are owned by the government or not they are still open to conversion which will cause dilution
I hope sanity prevails and conversion is only allowed at 300/-. The current price is 'discounted' due to uncertainty + lack of FY 2009-10 results which I expect will be much better than last year!

I'm projecting 09-10 PBT to be around 6billion for KPLC....
Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
mukiha
#187 Posted : Tuesday, August 03, 2010 10:22:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
www.mystocks.co.ke shows a couple of deals closed at 90 bob just minutes before closing time
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
ProverB
#188 Posted : Friday, August 06, 2010 2:30:14 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 3/12/2010
Posts: 1,199
Location: Eastlander
..the first time i came to this thread..it was trading at 43.00...had announced full year results for 09 with a negative earnings per share of 0.22 and a negative ROE(Return on Equity) of 0.18% as well as negative Return on Assets of 0.03%
..Basically everything about it was negative

(as a rule...painfully learnt from likes of uchumi, eveready, ea cable..i stay away from counters with negative ROE..low ROA)

... it is trading at 89.50 today.. ..driven largely by perception/expectations rather than fundamentals..but then there is this...

sparkly wrote:
CFC has a book value of 71. Based on 2009 accounts, new CSH (bank) will have a book value of 64 while CFCIH will have a book value of 6. Liberty paid 6.80 per share of CFCIH totaling to appx 800m. Part of the 800 to be used to pay off debts, the rest to be invested in govt securities but later to be used to grow the business.


and this too...
http://www.sharenet.co.z...news_disp.php?id=471028

With the published figures today..compared to last year everything is definately positive!! It doesnt necessarily mean counter is now on safe profitable trail henceforth..questions as to declined performance over the years must be answered..if the demerger is solving this..i wonder how.. was the Insurance arm dragging bank down? Sad

@MukiHa.. et al..
help a young man understand this thing.



..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
mukiha
#189 Posted : Sunday, August 08, 2010 5:40:59 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
I off-loaded 15% of my holding at 90 bob last Friday.

This profit was intended to go to Unga; but I've changed my mind and taking it to CMC...
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
PKoli
#190 Posted : Sunday, August 08, 2010 5:50:58 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
mukiha wrote:
I off-loaded 15% of my holding at 90 bob last Friday.

This profit was intended to go to Unga; but I've changed my mind and taking it to CMC...


You are not waiting for 140? What was your rationale? Thinning supply and the oncoming demerger should sweeten the things for CFC
sparkly
#191 Posted : Sunday, August 08, 2010 5:53:20 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/23/2009
Posts: 8,083
Location: Enk are Nyirobi
@mukiha looks like we are thinking alike. I offloaded 20% at 85 which went into kcb. Waiting to see what happens after the egm tomorrow.
Life is short. Live passionately.
the deal
#192 Posted : Sunday, August 08, 2010 5:54:28 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Mukiha dont go into CMC now wait until they announce their results in Jan 2011 then go in...thats what i'm planning to do...hehehe Unga is gone Mzee...on Monday we might see 14.50 bob...
PKoli
#193 Posted : Sunday, August 08, 2010 5:55:45 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
sparkly wrote:
@mukiha looks like we are thinking alike. I offloaded 20% at 85 which went into kcb. Waiting to see what happens after the egm tomorrow.


Anything small I have been offloading is going to KCB too, but I know the full value for CFC bado.
PKoli
#194 Posted : Sunday, August 08, 2010 6:01:49 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
the deal wrote:
@Mukiha dont go into CMC now wait until they announce their results in Jan 2011 then go in...thats what i'm planning to do...hehehe Unga is gone Mzee...on Monday we might see 14.50 bob...


By then the momemntum trading occassioned by the bull run will have made CMC expensive. You cannot wait for January!
the deal
#195 Posted : Sunday, August 08, 2010 6:09:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 9/25/2009
Posts: 4,534
Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
@Pkoli if a stock becomes 2 expensive by ur standards...no matter how juicy the story is u dont buy...btwn the bull run will be based on fundamentals not on referundum euphoria...only stocks reporting good results will rally...
PKoli
#196 Posted : Sunday, August 08, 2010 6:13:25 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 2/10/2007
Posts: 1,587
the deal wrote:
@Pkoli if a stock becomes 2 expensive by ur standards...no matter how juicy the story is u dont buy...btwn the bull run will be based on fundamentals not on referundum euphoria...only stocks reporting good results will rally...


Like ARM at current prices, 170! That is too expenive.

Based on the half year results for CFC Bank, Not group you can estimate the forward p/e, assuming things dont happen like last year. The insurance and other sectors of the group should return to profitability this year. That is why I am still bullish on CFC at current prices
VituVingiSana
#197 Posted : Monday, August 09, 2010 12:17:07 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 1/3/2007
Posts: 18,136
Location: Nairobi
IMHO, CFCStanbic has a long way to go to catch up with the other mid-sized banks!

http://www.businessdaily.../-/ynb4ywz/-/index.html

CFCS 'growth' in PAT was mainly due to sale of Bonds (one-off) + they have only 19 branches [Smaller I&M has 19 branches in Kenya]...

BTW, unlike NIC Bank, I&M Bank or DTB... CFCS can't expand into other EA countries...
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
youcan'tstopusnow
#198 Posted : Monday, August 09, 2010 12:59:24 AM
Rank: Chief


Joined: 3/24/2010
Posts: 6,779
Location: Black Africa
CFC targets retail segment to grow its loan book. I think these guys are going to find that a hard nut to crack. I mean, 19 branches is a pittance. What were they doing all this time? But I like their new ad on radio for their new account, where a woman asks 'Lakini si hiyo ni bank ya wadosi?' then another person replies 'Hapana...' Hehe. Ata CFC wanajua wao ni bank ya wadosi. www.businessdailyafrica....2/-/ynb4ywz/-/index.html
GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
mukiha
#199 Posted : Monday, August 09, 2010 9:40:15 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/27/2008
Posts: 4,114
Why are so many worried about the number of branches? Is there a statistical correlation between number of branches and profitability [not profits, but profitability]?
Nothing is real unless it can be named; nothing has value unless it can be sold; money is worthless unless you spend it.
Intelligentsia
#200 Posted : Monday, August 09, 2010 10:15:52 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 10/1/2009
Posts: 2,436
mukiha wrote:
Why are so many worried about the number of branches? Is there a statistical correlation between number of branches and profitability [not profits, but profitability]?


Historically in kenya, no.
Look at Citibank, they have had only 2 branches (Nbi&Msa) yet they are ranked a top tier 1 bank in kenya (and also on many other parameters) & against the backdrop of a good number of the other 40-odd banks having many more branches. Even DTB just started expansion barely 3 years ago despite >50-yrs of existence but has always posted profits (maybe except 1997)!
ditto CBA, who were able to get very very heavy accounts (US Embassy, USAID,Western embassies, NGOs,etc all of which were impt as they use nbi as the hub to serve the great lakes region & millions of USD pass thru them).
Huge branch network enables you to source for cheap deposits as you cover a wider geographical area. But it appears the most impt is the how heavy the pockets of your customers are/calibre of the customers who open accounts with the bank - unless you are volume-driven like Equity.
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