Before popping champagne, a review of the chart here: http://tinyurl.com/3xh2uhd indicates that the commodities have been in a sideways consolidation move for the entire year. The main driver has been the strength of the U.S. Dollar which has stifled the appreciation of commodities priced in it. All eyes are on Europe and the Euro. Further Euro declines could strengthen the Dollar as a port of safety and depress commodity prices. If attention shifts back to the fiscal problems in the U.S. and the Dollar resumes its multi-year downtrend, commodities will rise to compensate for the loss of Dollar purchasing power.

"Euro zone turbulence is keeping global commodity prices in check, helping Kenya to cut its import bill and slowing down the pace of inflation that is offering consumers much needed relief in the marketplace.

The price of oil, Kenya’s top import item, has remained steady at below $80 a barrel, having dropped from a high of $83 in April on the back of subdued demand in key European and North American markets.

That has helped cut the oil import bill by Sh28.8 billion (or 61.7 percent of the total bill) besides cooling off prices at the pump...."

Read more:

http://www.businessdaily.../-/vywtx6z/-/index.html

Better late than never. The black gold of Chepkube as it was known in the '70s coffee boom is simmering hot. Long suffering coffee farmers will be smiling to and from the bank. Eaagads Ltd and Sasini Tea and Coffee will thank their lucky stars that unlike Kapchorua Tea, they did not capitulate and sell their coffee farms at the low of the market.

"Coffee prices on Friday hit their highest level in 12 years on the back of low availability of premium Arabica coffee from key producer Colombia, after a string of disappointing crops in the Latin American country.

In New York, ICE September Arabica coffee jumped 3.2 per cent to 178.75 cents a pound, the highest since February 1998. In London, Liffe September lower quality robusta coffee rose 3 per cent to $1,810 a tonne...."

Read more:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...-9ebd-00144feab49a.html

The Middle Kingdom, soon to brush aside Japan has one goal in mind, the throne of global dominance. The next generation will have to learn Chinese as they will be their masters.

http://tinyurl.com/2udyeqk

"A senior Beijing official’s reference to China as the “world’s second-largest economy” has sparked excited speculation that Asia’s new powerhouse may have already reached a long-looming milestone by surpassing Japan.

China’s rapid recent growth has made it increasingly likely that its gross domestic product, in US dollar terms, will be larger this year than Japan’s. However, the vagaries of international currency movements mean such a result is far from assured...."

Read more:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...-a7a4-00144feab49a.html

Fundamental analysis of the real estate market in the U.S. will argue for increasing demand from a growing population that should provide an upward momentum to housing prices. Therefore, the common mantra that housing or real estate prices always rise should hold water. Why is it then that according to the article, house prices in former hotspots of Miami, Las Vegas and Florida are down by between 59% and 80%?

The simple answer, dear reader, is public confidence.

All assets rise and fall upon the fickle whim of public confidence. Based on studies by Princeton Economics International, the bull market in U.S. house prices began in 1955 and ended in 2007 with a bubble top marked by market euphoria. The decline could last 10 - 23 years as in the case of Japan.

"The housing bust has made owning a home a lot more affordable -- but in some places, prices are extraordinary; you can buy a nice condo for less than the cost of a new family car.

Some cities have dozens of attractive condominium listings selling for $50,000 or $25,000. There are some selling for less than a new Toyota Corolla. And these are not derelict hovels in crime-ridden communities: These homes are often in move-in condition and located in nice neighborhoods.

"Not to sound like a salesman, but there are some real bargains out there," said Kevin Berman, a broker with Bankers Realty Services in Fort Lauderdale, Fla."

Read more:

http://finance.yahoo.com...nnm-1234989345.html?x=0

With attention in Forex markets shifting from the sovereign woes in southern Europe to the brink-of-broke states in mainland United States, the IMF is angling itself as backer to a One World Currency. Inorder to gain credibility, the shape and form of the IMF would have to change to become more transparent. The conclusion of the article: "It is understood that some of the ideas discussed are unlikely to materialize in the foreseeable future absent a dramatic shift in appetite for international cooperation." indicates that action will only take place in the wake of another crisis. Politicians never change.

"FT Alphaville missed this IMF paper when it first came out in April, 2010.

Authored by Reza Moghadam, director of the IMF’s strategy, policy and review department, it discusses how the IMF sees the International Monetary System evolving after the financial crisis.

We’ll cut to the chase and draw readers’ attention to the final bubble in the following chart, found on page 4:

IMS blue print - IMF

Which means, in the eyes of the IMF at least, the best way to ensure the stability of the international monetary system (post crisis) is actually by launching a global currency...."

Read more:

http://ftalphaville.ft.c...al-currency-yes-really/

KK. What play are you making? You following this stuff?

Read more

http://www.reuters.com/a...le/idUSTRE67832X20100810

States in the Red

Most states have addressed or still face gaps in their budgets totaling $121 billion for fiscal year 2011:

http://s.wsj.net/public/...GET100414_20100414.html

Africa rises with the East on the back of an improving political climate and most importantly, the rule of law.

"Gabon, a small west African oil-producer seeking to emerge from decades of dictatorship, is planning $4.5bn of agriculture and infrastructure ventures in what would rank among the biggest investment packages by Asian powers in Africa.

In an announcement timed to coincide with the celebrations of the 50th anniversary of Gabon’s independence from France, the government said Indian and Singaporean groups would invest in timber, palm oil, housing and road-building projects as well as constructing a special economic zone...."

Read more:

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/...-86dd-00144feabdc0.html

Private Equity Group Seeking Financial Institution Partner

A Singapore based private equity firm seeks to acquire and/or JV with a commercial banking institution to invest private equity for them.

Their criteria is:

1. Minimum USD$1 Billion + of pre existing, mandated deal flow pipeline including exhaustive dd and audited financials.


2. Minimum transaction size USD$100 million + of already established ebitda of USD$25 million + each.


3. Management easy to deal with and able to efficiently execute detailed instructions.


4. Strong financial center branch network and commercial brand.


5. Not currently managing private equity.


If you know of a viable candidate, please e-mail me at karanjakinuthia@hotmail.com

@ Hishah. There are five asset classes that are perpetually competing for investor attention:

* Debt
* Stocks
* Technology
* Commodities
* Real Estate

Currencies are the transmission mechanism that investors can gauge their losses or gains.

During the Sovereign Debt Crisis of 1931, the Dollar rallied as a safe haven to South American and European nations who defaulted on their debt obligations. Therefore, a present day strong Dollar is a replay of the safe haven status that the Greenback enjoys in tumultuous times.
Interestingly, stocks boomed between 1932 and 1937 because, remember, the world was gripped by a debt crisis causing a flight from debt. Technology had already enjoyed in day in the sun, fueling the 1921 - 1929 bull run concentrated in automotive and airline stocks. Commodities had peaked earlier in 1921 whilst real-estate was a no-go zone; property prices hit 30 cents an acre in Virginia during the Great Depression.

Fast forward to present day and the sovereign debt structures of the Western world are being called into question. Investors have two options left in the wake of the 2000 Dot Com (technology) bust, 2007 real estate bust and 2010 Sovereign Debt Crisis - commodities and stocks.

One more point to note, performance of the stock market is not always an indicator of economic performance. Take for instance the Shanghai Composite Index which was in decline between 2001 and 2006 whilst the Chinese economy was steaming ahead. Therefore, global stock markets may boom as an alternative to the debt markets whilst economies stagnate or even decline.