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Ericks		#31 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2009 11:12:00 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/29/2008 Posts: 170		@ Mukiha, it is the same erratic behaviour that warrants the inclusion of the overall inflation factor in investment decisions,remember some of us invests to accumulate capital meant to start for instance an FMG outlet,these FMGs might include food items whose prices change seasonally. in the same light,in modern times most if not all industries are energy dependent so excluding the energy component in inflation computation will result in an unrealistic projection. i would agree with you if am a service provider creating projections for pooled clients since all of them have different points of view and arriving at a compromise is vital,but for individual investments i must use overall inflation through amongst other ways use of trimmed mean computed on a month on month,or volatility weighting by use of standard deviation of the monthly price change in relation to the underlying inflation which would focus on relative price changes then take care of high volatility by use of standard deviation of the price's second difference. these would atleast give a reasonble inflation that would shield against unforeseen difficulties occassioned by the very same erratic overall inflation figures............... Its just me whatever choice you make in life make sure that you can live with it.
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Mainat		#32 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2009 12:23:00 PM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 11/21/2006 Posts: 1,590		There are 3 issues: Is the bond a good money market instrument? Yes,If you are a unit trust fund manager,you will love being able to put Ksh1bn into this and earning 12% tax free every year even its on a reducing balance. Is it a good investment vehicle for private investors like you and me? Well,core inflation (underling inflation is only important to fund mangers and sometimes CBK not raia) is 23% currently and is unlikely to go below 12% over the next 3/4 years. That is your reference point... Is a better bet than stocks? Depends on how good a stockpicker you are. Finally,will the bond benefit Kengen shareholders? Nay... www.mjengakenya.blogspot.com Sehemu ndio nyumba
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Ericks		#33 Posted : Monday, September 14, 2009 1:51:00 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/29/2008 Posts: 170		@ Mukiha..... btw the share and the bond.... i would go for the bond with not less than 5 million,with less than that and enough time i'd go for the share anytime.... Its just me whatever choice you make in life make sure that you can live with it.
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sungura2005		#34 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2009 1:02:00 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 6/20/2007 Posts: 25		I won't buy it coz u can get similar returns from treasury bonds with far less risk.
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ecstacy		#35 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2009 1:37:00 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 2/26/2008 Posts: 4,449		treasury bonds?
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jerry		#36 Posted : Tuesday, September 15, 2009 4:40:00 PM
Rank: Elder Joined: 9/29/2006 Posts: 2,570		5 what? It seems to me that u r relating ur monthly expenditure to returns or have a fixed monthly target. Not bad idea. How wud u invest 1M? Crocodile tears: If you can't assist me when I'm alive en you attend my funeral. The opposite of courage is not cowardice, it's conformity.
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Ericks		#37 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 7:56:00 AM
Rank: Member Joined: 7/29/2008 Posts: 170		@ Jerry None of the above With one million i'd do shares... with the help of SK and some time in btw my working hours i can make more than 12.5% net in a year... Its just me whatever choice you make in life make sure that you can live with it.
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Scubidu		#38 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 8:12:00 AM
Rank: Veteran Joined: 9/4/2009 Posts: 700 Location: Nairobi		Did anyone look at the assumptions on financing future projects on page 183 of the IM. They make some strange assumptions about their proposed issue of stock in 2010. Plus I think the valuation on the 12.5% is still too rich...a 15.5% valuation would be more appropriate based on recent market movements. SCUBI “We are the middle children of history man, no purpose or place. We have no great war, no great depression. Our great war is a spiritual war, our great depression is our lives!" – Tyler Durden
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smano		#39 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 9:24:00 AM
Rank: Elder Joined: 12/13/2006 Posts: 2,589		@sungura 2005,as someone has rightly asked,which treasury bonds are you talking about? smano BEER IS LIVING PROOF THAT GOD LOVES US AND WANTS US TO BE HAPPY!
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Agra		#40 Posted : Wednesday, September 16, 2009 12:59:00 PM
Rank: Member Joined: 4/22/2007 Posts: 96 Location: Agra, India		How liquid is the bond market let say after 1 year i want to exit will there be willing buyers especially for bond worth 100k.and how much interest will i have to for go? NAMASTE !Don't be unrealistic with your expectations It's easy for investors to get emotional and prejudiced when trading, but computers don't
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