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Impact of the August 4th Referendum on the market
Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/17/2010 Posts: 71 Location: Kenya
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Hie Wazurians. Is it just me or is there likely to be some slowdown in the market come the Referendum shauriyako attached the following image(s):  referendum.jpg (12kb) downloaded 3 time(s).When we wake up in the morning, we have two simple choices. Go back to sleep and dream, or wake up and chase those dreams. The choice is yours! .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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definitely... and when we start killing each other... it will only get worse... Welcome to Kenya... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 11/19/2008 Posts: 1,267
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It will depend on whether you will accept my advise......Vote for your investment .....Vote for your children's future...Vote for the political and economic stability of the country ....vote for the NSE upsurge ...Vote YES ....if you care for your country.... money and children...Otherwise you will see 'RED' in your investments.....At no other time in the Country's future will you ever see the political will for a new constition as we have now.....lets embrace it ....otherwise dont ever expect a new constitution in your remaining lifetime if this one fails....persuasively tell this to your neighbour.....>>>>>>>>>> Isaiah 65:17-Look! I am creating new heavens and a new earth, and no one will even think about the old ones anymore
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/17/2010 Posts: 71 Location: Kenya
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VituVingiSana wrote:definitely... and when we start killing each other... it will only get worse... Welcome to Kenya... I believe as Kenyans we would'nt want to go that way having seen what it did to us. As Fundaah puts it we will vote for our money and Children. What I wonder is how many of us will be ready to take advantage of the buying opportunities that will present themselves. Put differently would you invest in the market now or would you wait till after referendum - if you had a tiddy sum. When we wake up in the morning, we have two simple choices. Go back to sleep and dream, or wake up and chase those dreams. The choice is yours! .
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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My gut tells me there will be problems yet I refuse to disinvest... I am a patriotic FOOL... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/2/2010 Posts: 305
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Well....I dont see no problem, at least not one that can affect the market significantly.I do think Kenya is past that, people know better now.
“Once the last tree is cut and the last river poisoned,you will find you cannot eat your money" Traditional saying.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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hindi ni riu wrote:Well....I dont see no problem, at least not one that can affect the market significantly.I do think Kenya is past that, people know better now. Yes, that is what I told myself in 2007 & 1Q 2008... See http://url4.eu/4pHToGreedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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the market is pricing in a "YES" vote so if the "NO" camp wins then we will have to expect the market to sell off Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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guru267 wrote:the market is pricing in a "YES" vote so if the "NO" camp wins then we will have to expect the market to sell off YES or NO... violence will negate it all... If the referendum (whatever the result) goes 'smoothly' then investors will return... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/23/2008 Posts: 3,017
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guru267 wrote:the market is pricing in a "YES" vote so if the "NO" camp wins then we will have to expect the market to sell off I am not sure the yes victory has been properly priced into the market price. Personally I expect a yes win to spike the price up by atleast 40% in the short run mostly as a result of euphoria and the hope of making a quick buck. Then people will realise that you still need to work even with the new constitution to earn some bread. On the foreign front, I expect Obama will be yelling from the roof tops and pointing out at how Kenya is a beacon of hope, return from the brink and gateway to east and central africa, should also excite some foreign investors into buying. In the long run, the fundamentals will return to dictate the market direction. A no victory spells doom for the country and the market direction will be the least of my worries. "The purpose of bureaucracy is to compensate for incompetence and lack of discipline." James Collins
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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If you haven't seen it already, there is a Wazua poll on the proposed constitution. The last poll ended in a tie. To get to the thread follow: Wazua » Club SK » Politics » Proposed constitution: new opinion poll... or simply click on this link: http://wazua.co.ke/forum.aspx?g=posts&t=7460GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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Obi 1 Kanobi wrote:
I am not sure the yes victory has been properly priced into the market price. Personally I expect a yes win to spike the price up by atleast 40% in the short run mostly as a result of euphoria and the hope of making a quick buck. Then people will realise that you still need to work even with the new constitution to earn some bread.
On the foreign front, I expect Obama will be yelling from the roof tops and pointing out at how Kenya is a beacon of hope, return from the brink and gateway to east and central africa, should also excite some foreign investors into buying.
In the long run, the fundamentals will return to dictate the market direction.
A no victory spells doom for the country and the market direction will be the least of my worries.
@Ob1 the only problem with all of this is that the NO camp is gaining ground... if only the abortion and Khadhi courts clauses were not included there would be notning to worry about.... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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http://af.reuters.com/ar...s/idAFJOE66M0GN20100723
the yes vote will carry the day... so i guess there's no need to worry.. e'en though my vote is different. ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/16/2007 Posts: 2,114
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We should have had two drafts,draft A being the current draft and draft B being the current draft but minus tha abortion and kadhi clauses.Then vote on the two drafts..either way we would end up with a new constitution...
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Chaka wrote:We should have had two drafts,draft A being the current draft and draft B being the current draft but minus tha abortion and kadhi clauses.Then vote on the two drafts..either way we would end up with a new constitution... Why single out the abortion and kadhi clauses? Other people also have issues with many other clauses, not necessarily the aforementioned two. Will we grant them their wish of having some clauses removed? Then we would have a million drafts to choose from, which is not practical. Constitution making cannot be relegated to being a matter of choosing between drafts A,B,C,D,E,F....Either you're pro or con. YES or NO. No two ways about it. Hakuna nusunusu au shingo upande.  GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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My problem with the draft the bit where any street urchin under eight yrs is automatically granted kenyan citizenship. But that can be fixed later.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Gordon Gekko wrote:My problem with the draft the bit where any street urchin under eight yrs is automatically granted kenyan citizenship. But that can be fixed later. So if the kids from Kakuma find their way into Nairobi and other towns, they automatically become citizens? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 8/16/2009 Posts: 994
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Opinion poll as of yesterday points to a YES win. Just adjust ua porfolio accordingly. Time is money, so money is time. Money saved is time gained in reverse! Money stores your life’s energy. You expend your energy, get paid money, and store that money for a future purchase made in a currency.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Gatheuzi wrote:Opinion poll as of yesterday points to a YES win. Just adjust ua porfolio accordingly. Gatheuzi, we all know YES will win. Only question is whether there'll be violence GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 13,568 Location: nairobi
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since government with all its arms is on the yes side. shld the draft see the light of day, you can expect an extremely heavy handed response to the 'lawbreakers'
COOP 70,000 ABP 15.20; KQ 414,100 ABP 7.92; MTN 23,800 ABP 6.45
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