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Rank: Elder Joined: 12/9/2009 Posts: 6,592 Location: Nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:I am conflicted... I want cheaper prices for the shares I want to buy but higher prices for the shares I already have... Ha,ha,ha and I'm quite the opposite. I want the counters in my portfolio to go lowest even cheaper than I bought because they are the only counters I would still buy as I understand them best and fundamentals are very strong.
BBI will solve it :)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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I do not see any significant change in the prices even if the referendum goes through. There could just be temporary excitement. The market has already factored in the Yes victory possibility given the high rating Yes has received. This is unlike the previous referendum and elections when the contest were very close.
Micro and macro economic conditions will be major factors in the NSE performance.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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StatMeister wrote:
How so? A no will leave us without a new constitution, i.e. with the consitution we already have. What will change so fundamentally to cause a market crash?
@stat... The country will be left with a seriously flawed constitution and foreign investors will have no security for 2012.... Personally if the NO camp wins i'll take profits like no mans business... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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VituVingiSana wrote:I am like an MPig of the NSE...  Only difference being that the MPigs actually get whatever they want, at all costs. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/24/2008 Posts: 238
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StatMeister wrote:mwenza wrote:The consequences of a NO victory are too grave to contemplate.
Luckily, we shall not have a refUrendum soon. How so? A no will leave us without a new constitution, i.e. with the consitution we already have. What will change so fundamentally to cause a market crash?... Statmeister, you are spot on. Some people are just being fearmongers. The referendum was designed to be a YES or NO unless someone says NO was never meant to be an option. Whether YES or NO wins we will need to continue working for reform. Constitutional reform is a journey, not a destination!
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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Looks we have many prophets of doom in Wazua. Me thinks the refundum will go through and there will be little excitement, just short-term like the Spanish did after wining the World Cup. The NSE will be driven by fundamentals of the economy. I think there will be no chaos.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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PKoli wrote:The NSE will be driven by fundamentals of the economy. I think there will be no chaos That's what I said on the day of the election & the day after & the day after that. Then all hell broke loose! http://www.nation.co.ke/...4/-/kui7sc/-/index.html
Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/23/2010 Posts: 868 Location: La Islas Galápagos
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guru267 wrote:StatMeister wrote:
How so? A no will leave us without a new constitution, i.e. with the consitution we already have. What will change so fundamentally to cause a market crash?
@stat... The country will be left with a seriously flawed constitution and foreign investors will have no security for 2012.... Personally if the NO camp wins i'll take profits like no mans business... @guru, I expect a yes win. A look at the markets from 1 week prior to 1 week post ref is: - wait for the referendoom to play itself out and carry the risk of capital losses (-10%) with possible reward of 10% (market recovery) - Bail out now (-5% liquidating costs), wait to get into volatile counters (they will take a 10-20% beating in the next 2 weeks, so giving +15% gains afterwards; then a market recovery of 10% (as above). Final position is +20% while eliminating political risk. Just my thinking A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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As far as i know Kenyans cant conduct a peaceful election...i came here 2007 and i so what happened...even student politics have always ended in riots and people's cars getting burned....as a precaution i'm leaving Kenya next week...leaving my investments at the NSE...lets hope Kenyans learned from 2007 otherwse it could be worse....
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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the deal wrote:As far as i know Kenyans cant conduct a peaceful election...i came here 2007 and i so what happened...even student politics have always ended in riots and people's cars getting burned....as a precaution i'm leaving Kenya next week...leaving my investments at the NSE...lets hope Kenyans learned from 2007 otherwse it could be worse.... We can't all be civilized like Namibians.  In a weird sense, the 'late' independence was good for Namibia... Or you do not agree? Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 1/7/2010 Posts: 1,279 Location: nbi
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A YES win will almost certainly mean a nice little NSE bull run. I'm predicting ata 5,000 is doable. I think mwanake wa Kibaki has his trouble signal up unlike in 2007. Wasa rooter & fellow kales welete storro... The Governor of Nyeri - 2017
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
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StatMeister wrote:mwenza wrote:The consequences of a NO victory are too grave to contemplate.
Luckily, we shall not have a refUrendum soon. How so? A no will leave us without a new constitution, i.e. with the consitution we already have. What will change so fundamentally to cause a market crash? In fact, a YES win means structural changes in government which may have SOME (not a lot of) effect on the markets, especially senior appointments and regulatory environment As Martha Karua would tell you, Optimism and reality are quite different. A NO victory, which of coz is an impossibility, will signify something akin to an end of the road. Whoever expects a NO victory does not live in Kenya. To understand my last paragraph better, read my signature herebelow. IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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VVS, agreed kabisa! The late indepence of the Southern African countries did wonders for them. It's the only reason why Zimbabwe has 80 percent literacy levels (among highest in Africa) not to mention excellent infrastructure (though that has been depleting fast since the late nineties) GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
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Brewer wrote:StatMeister wrote:mwenza wrote:The consequences of a NO victory are too grave to contemplate.
Luckily, we shall not have a refUrendum soon. How so? A no will leave us without a new constitution, i.e. with the consitution we already have. What will change so fundamentally to cause a market crash?... Statmeister, you are spot on. Some people are just being fearmongers. The referendum was designed to be a YES or NO unless someone says NO was never meant to be an option. Whether YES or NO wins we will need to continue working for reform. Constitutional reform is a journey, not a destination! My considered opinion is that when YES was declared a government project, NO was never meant to be an option. Its that simple. IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
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Rank: Elder Joined: 4/22/2009 Posts: 2,863
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:VVS, agreed kabisa! The late indepence of the Southern African countries did wonders for them. It's the only reason why Zimbabwe has 80 percent literacy levels (among highest in Africa) not to mention excellent infrastructure (though that has been depleting fast since the late nineties) Are we suggesting that Mutahi Ngunyi is right when he reckons that PEV should have been allowed to run the full course? IF YOU EXPECT ME TO POST ANYTHING POSITIVE ABOUT ASENO, YOU MAY AS WELL SIT ON A PIN
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:VVS, agreed kabisa! The late indepence of the Southern African countries did wonders for them. It's the only reason why Zimbabwe has 80 percent literacy levels (among highest in Africa) not to mention excellent infrastructure (though that has been depleting fast since the late nineties) High literacy rates thanks to comrade bob but infrastructure is coz of White Zimbabweans? South Africa has great infrastructure too... Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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VituVingiSana wrote:High literacy rates thanks to comrade bob but infrastructure is coz of White Zimbabweans? Really? Are you suggesting that there was a time when Mugabe had a functioning brain and was actually interested in the development of 'his' people  Also just wondering, will prisoners be voting in the referendum? GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Member Joined: 5/3/2010 Posts: 145 Location: East Africa
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Its great that we got independence when we did. But am of the opinion that a late independence (10 - 15yrs later) would have done this country some good on the development front.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,136 Location: Nairobi
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:High literacy rates thanks to comrade bob but infrastructure is coz of White Zimbabweans? Really? Are you suggesting that there was a time when Mugabe had a functioning brain and was actually interested in the development of 'his' people Also just wondering, will prisoners be voting in the referendum? comrade bob was very progressive early on then his wife (Sally) died. He married his nurse & things went downhill... The problem in Africa is that leaders do not leave willingly after a few years. They have to be forced out. Botswana is the exception. Mauritius has a decent democracy too. No coups/violence there either. museveni said max 10 years. Now he wants another term to add to his 27 years or so! moi was forced out. If he had refused, we would have seen a civil war & he would have lost. Perhaps his head too. Literally. wade of Senegal wants a 3rd term... kwani? I hope Kagame does not go down the same route! Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/25/2009 Posts: 4,534 Location: Windhoek/Nairobbery
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Stealth wrote:Its great that we got independence when we did. But am of the opinion that a late independence (10 - 15yrs later) would have done this country some good on the development front. True that i think Kenya was not ready for independence in the 1960's...only a few handful Kenyans were educated and knew what was happening...
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