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Mumias Sugar and SASINI TEA AND COFFEE LTD. Your perfect growth stocks.
Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/23/2010 Posts: 868 Location: La Islas Galápagos
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VituVingiSana wrote:sparkly wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Sasini is a merali firm. Jut not for me... I prefer Williamson or Kakuzi... like kakuzi too but kapchorua is also starting to catch my eye. Williamson is older brother of Kapchorua tea companies are good buys when targeting 2010 results. Good rains this year . . . but drought in Q4 10 means sell before Q1 11 results go out A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/17/2009 Posts: 1,622
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@statmeister,drought last year drove prices through up.Tea for me is a win win situation,Kakuzi next month will reflect this.
@vvs,with this WTK/KAPCHORUA board,how did they arrive at equal dividends for both while WTK had triple the earnings of the sister?
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,261 Location: Nairobi
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cnn wrote:@statmeister,drought last year drove prices through up.Tea for me is a win win situation,Kakuzi next month will reflect this.
@vvs,with this WTK/KAPCHORUA board,how did they arrive at equal dividends for both while WTK had triple the earnings of the sister? I have no idea!!! Lakini, the EPS w/out biological earnings was 2x not 3x Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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Tea and Coffee securities would require one to forecast weather two years upfront in the main producing zones. Since a year's bumber harvest in one zone would imply poor prices in another one.
Excluding biological valuations, what would be the fairs p/e of an agricultural stock?
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 5/23/2010 Posts: 868 Location: La Islas Galápagos
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PKoli wrote:Tea and Coffee securities would require one to forecast weather two years upfront in the main producing zones. Since a year's bumber harvest in one zone would imply poor prices in another one.
Excluding biological valuations, what would be the fairs p/e of an agricultural stock? @kpoli, good view. but remember we compete with India and Sri Lanka, and our main buyer (Pakistan) CANNOT AND WILL NEVER buy from India / Sri Lanka, never mind the prices. @@vvs, what are biological earnings? Is it something like patents or grafts? A bad day fishing is better than a good day at work
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Rank: Elder Joined: 9/23/2009 Posts: 8,083 Location: Enk are Nyirobi
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Gains from revaluation of biological assets - biological assets like growing tea bushes and live animals are revalued ( based on future cashflows expected from the assets, discounted to the present). The IFRS require any gain or loss resulting from the revaluation to be passed through the P&L. Life is short. Live passionately.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,261 Location: Nairobi
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StatMeister wrote:
@kpoli, good view. but remember we compete with India and Sri Lanka, and our main buyer (Pakistan) CANNOT AND WILL NEVER buy from India / Sri Lanka, never mind the prices.
Actually, you are mistaken. There is a South Asian Trade treaty like EAC/COMESA. SL does sell lots of tea to Pakistan but the cheaper type only. A lot of SL tea is sold as 'premium'. India also sells to Pakistan. There may be 'problems' due to politics but there is trade in tea. Also lot of Indian tea goes by the back channels to Afghanistan then into Pakistan. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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qw25041985 wrote:I still maintain that this stock will reach 18.00 .this stock has accumulated to much to move such a small distance as indicated by @ guru. Get me clear though, i amnt sayin that this stock will jump frm current 12.00 to 18.00 in one go but it wnt take long either and is worth the wait. End of September isnt far either and i also am expecting gud results. Says the dude that a few months wanted nothing to do with this counter and was trashing it until he was enlightened by me (i have the evidence in previous threads).... My target price is 16bob but i'm highly confident it will pass that with good results.... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Elder You have been a member since:: 5/27/2008 Posts: 3,760
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In Oct 2006 I sold Sasini for ksh 136. I once paid ksh 52 for Mumias. I think Sasini is the winner and has be best chance for capital appreciation.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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GG, is there anything exciting in sasini's fuure? For mumias, kuna more electrity, acquisitions, TARDA, bottled water, ethanol na mengineyo. That is why in my opinion, mumias is a far better stock to hold for the medium term. GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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youcan'tstopusnow wrote:GG, is there anything exciting in sasini's fuure? For mumias, kuna more electrity, acquisitions, TARDA, bottled water, ethanol na mengineyo. That is why in my opinion, mumias is a far better stock to hold for the medium term. @you.... I think @GG is talking about a short term jump in price.... Though they will both jump Sasini looks set to fair better than Mumias... Though not worth the risk Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/14/2010 Posts: 521 Location: Nairobi
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Mumias demand rising currently @ 3.8 times supply
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/11/2010 Posts: 5,040
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mumias!!! i have two theories 1. Four month peak in international sugar prices 2. Mumias demanding for 11 US cents instead of 8 US cents they are now recieving. This company is so efficeint and well managed, product diversification and future planning. You gotta love mumias. The investor's chief problem - and even his worst enemy - is likely to be himself
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Rank: Chief Joined: 3/24/2010 Posts: 6,779 Location: Black Africa
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Aguytrying, umenena. Demand is high. Maybe the counter can edge higher in the run up to the results GOD BLESS YOUR LIFE
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Rank: Elder Joined: 2/10/2007 Posts: 1,587
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@Aguytrying,
I am not sure whether by demanding higher tariff the price will move up. I think the market is simply expecting better FY results>
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/17/2010 Posts: 71 Location: Kenya
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Me thinks the uptrend will have hickups. Next week things will slowdown then all of us who have our tails between our legs for fear of the referendum aftermath will place our orders the week after and take the price to..... One of my all time favourite stock - lots of fluctuation and good margins too. When we wake up in the morning, we have two simple choices. Go back to sleep and dream, or wake up and chase those dreams. The choice is yours! .
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Rank: Member Joined: 4/14/2010 Posts: 806 Location: Nairobi
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@Guru267 & @ qw...  the sun is rising on the sugar
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 3/12/2010 Posts: 1,199 Location: Eastlander
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qw25041985 wrote:I still maintain that this stock will reach 18.00 .
also am expecting gud results. 500% growth on interim profits was a 1-off thing...full year growth likely within 28-35%..see sparkly/the deal comment on a different thread on the same..(can't find it)  ..at time of half year announcement price ranged between 7.00-8.50....by jan 31st..price was up 42% prices of june 09...to the current pricing of 12.50..the stock is about 82% up???..from low of 6.50...  price run to 13.50 has as gud as taken in projected growth.. the other reason likely to push it up is pegged on how much dividend they will declare... any other justifiable price run will be for those erroneously thinking 500% growth will be replicated in full year.. But hey!..just thinking. ..Let your light so shine before men, that they may see your good works, and glorify your Father which is in heaven...Matt5:16
- 1769 Oxford King James Bible 'Authorized Version
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Rank: New-farer Joined: 6/17/2010 Posts: 71 Location: Kenya
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I do not think my math is so poor. Is it not true that if Mumias made 500% groth in the 1H just duplicating their 2H last - meaning no growth - should give them 250%. Assumption their 1H figures are similar to their 2H figures. Can someone then enlighten me how you can make 500% growth in 1H then end up 30% or whatever %age figure Pple are projecting for the year without posting close to a 400% decline in profits for the 2H. Honestly guys I do not see anything below 150% growth for the year on this counter. When we wake up in the morning, we have two simple choices. Go back to sleep and dream, or wake up and chase those dreams. The choice is yours! .
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Rank: Elder Joined: 1/21/2010 Posts: 6,675 Location: Nairobi
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winston wrote:@Guru267 & @ qw... the sun is rising on the sugar  i dont want to speak too soon... But this is definitely institutions unleashing their wrath on this counter... Mark 12:29
Deuteronomy 4:16
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Mumias Sugar and SASINI TEA AND COFFEE LTD. Your perfect growth stocks.
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