In the business daily today
https://www.businessdail...or-sh49-via-nse-5614044

Buying indirectly is a bit complex . Cannot be actualized during the IPO window of Sept 14th to Oct 13th

In essence not really worth the effort plus the obvious oversubscription issues and refund problems.
Kindly heed to my advise to invest directly in the nearest future via NSE bourse when cross listed or Lamu refinery IPO comes on board .



https://www.businessdail...-dangote-shares-5616510

Hi Maichblack

I avoided to comment but decided to do so now because Mzee like me VVS commented .

Yes I was surprised as well about the disrespect to Kenyan audience that Dangote displayed . This was quite unlike him who is always cool and unassuming.
I can understand why it was annoying to majority of Kenyan audience . I apologize as a fellow Nigerian on behave of super entrepreneur Dangote.

POSSIBLE CAUSE OF DANGOTE"S UTTERANCE
Checking after thorough research, I can report back to you that his UTTERANCE was NOT directed to wide Kenyan audience . Rather to alledged cartel that are opposed to this investment . Recall that this is the second coming of Dangote to Kenya . In 2013 to 2016 he was to site a 4 million ton cement factory in Kitui county , and the said cartel scuttled the plan for some no plausible reasons
but attributable to bribes and corruption

https://youtu.be/-WpJDIysQus?si=AIh3vX02hTLSveX4

I believe that is the underlying reason for his utterances . Seems also that he has been briefed and emboldened by the current regime that he has their full backing .


MY CONCERNS .....
1. Why such a haste ? Did GOK employ experts to
negotiate to the benefits of Kenyans the terms
of the agreement to be favourable to them.
Some construction equipments imported from
overseas have already arrived Lamu!!!

2. Why is the agreement not transparent . Why is it not in public domain ? At least the representative of the people ie the parliament should have been privy to it for their input and approval ?

3. The installed capacity is 700,000 barrels , the local crude from the region is not more than 200,000 summed up . It means crude will still be sourced overseas , therefore the retail pump price will still be high. This is exactly the experience we have now in Nigeria . Dangote is even to double the capacity here from 700,000 barrels to 1.4 million in 2028. This might make the finished Lamu refinery products (Petrol, Diesel, Aviation Fuel);to be priced in USD . Dangote group attempted this in Nigeria due to inadequate supply of local crude .
How will local aviation fuel in terms of pricing favours KQ, Rwanair, Ugandaair with respect to discounts and competitive prices? Will Uganda be willing to send their crude to Lamu , is there any agreement to that effect ? This is because proposed Tukana production is about 45,000 barrels , far less than Uganda 70,000 barrel and a far cry from 700,000 barrels capacity . What of crude from other partners like south Sudan and Somalia , what arrangement or agreement are in place . M7 of Uganda was not commital to send their crude to Lamu. Rather he was emphasizing on going ahead on their 60,000 barrel refinery in Uganda .


Kindly know that inadequate crude it is not a problem for Dangote , he will import overseas and transfer all the cost to finished products . Dangote is a business man and cannot loose . He will use his Lamu hub to export the surplus product overseas as your daily consumption is less 15% of the 700,000 barrels production capacity. What is the agreement terms to export surplus finished products overseas and to East African region? Via Lamu or Via Mombassa? Good for wananchi to know .....


4. For Job creation this is a big win to East Africa. Kindly be aware the 60,000 jobs quoted is during the construction phase . The actual production phase will not require 3,000 personnel to drive the process . This is the true situation.


5. Is a good deal to transform rural Lamu to a city and industrial hub to the benefit of Kenyans and Dangote . Dangote knows her deliverables based on previous experience , Kenyans and greater East Africa should also negotiate well for a fair balance and mutual benefit . That is more reason that the AGREEMENTS before being signed should have been open for inputs from experts and your parliament . .

6. Compensation and resettlement of displaced Lamu and neighbourhood community this is actually the responsibility of GOK/Lamu county . For sure just like in Lekki Lagos, Dangote would have paid a lump sum to GOK to compensate the locals . This issue should have been resolved before ground breaking . This explains why I opine that the ground breaking activity was hasty , too fast , too soon and the details kept as top secret.

Best wishes