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Portfolio Balancing: Avoid Over Exposure To Financial Sector
Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,996
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MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Dear @Obiero,
What should we buy and sell?
@maich Where's that Inverse Obiero ETF? Let him tell us what to buy and sell we do the opposite. In November he discouraged me from buying more KCB shares (It has been the main share I was buying the whole of 2025 from 40s level) saying that Exchange Bar was seeing a price of 48/= come February! I did the only logical thing and went full force the opposite direction!! Threw everything that came my way at more KCB shares at between 56 - 57/=. 3 months later we are at 76/=. And I'm not even a short term person!! Results bado. Dividends bado. A couple more years of growth bado!  @Obiero is saying sell KQ at 5.50... I cannot reconcile myself with buying KQ at any price. Inverse Obiero may not be foolproof. Or should we exclude it from the ETF? @VVS - Despite our total lack of appetite to buy KQ, you saw this one real time!!! The minute @Obiero said people should sell KQ, it was time to buy!!! You just can't make this stuff up!! After all these years, the one time @Obiero insisted that people should sell KQ, it turns out it is the ONLY TIME they should have bought!! Turns out Inverse Obiero strategy has no exceptions and is actually fool 100% proof!!!Inverse Obiero strategy! Making people rich since 1999!! @Obiero - This was you earlier this year insisting everyone should sell at 5.50/=. The price rose after that!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,421 Location: Nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Dear @Obiero,
What should we buy and sell?
@maich Where's that Inverse Obiero ETF? Let him tell us what to buy and sell we do the opposite. In November he discouraged me from buying more KCB shares (It has been the main share I was buying the whole of 2025 from 40s level) saying that Exchange Bar was seeing a price of 48/= come February! I did the only logical thing and went full force the opposite direction!! Threw everything that came my way at more KCB shares at between 56 - 57/=. 3 months later we are at 76/=. And I'm not even a short term person!! Results bado. Dividends bado. A couple more years of growth bado! @Obiero is saying sell KQ at 5.50... I cannot reconcile myself with buying KQ at any price. Inverse Obiero may not be foolproof. Or should we exclude it from the ETF? @VVS - Despite our total lack of appetite to buy KQ, you saw this one real time!!! The minute @Obiero said people should sell KQ, it was time to buy!!! You just can't make this stuff up!! After all these years, the one time @Obiero insisted that people should sell KQ, it turns out it is the ONLY TIME they should have bought!! Turns out Inverse Obiero strategy has no exceptions and is actually fool 100% proof!!!Inverse Obiero strategy! Making people rich since 1999!! @Obiero - This was you earlier this year insisting everyone should sell at 5.50/=. The price rose after that!!! WOOOIIII!!!! [Screaming like those women at a funeral in Nyanza  ] Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,440 Location: nairobi
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VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:Dear @Obiero,
What should we buy and sell?
@maich Where's that Inverse Obiero ETF? Let him tell us what to buy and sell we do the opposite. In November he discouraged me from buying more KCB shares (It has been the main share I was buying the whole of 2025 from 40s level) saying that Exchange Bar was seeing a price of 48/= come February! I did the only logical thing and went full force the opposite direction!! Threw everything that came my way at more KCB shares at between 56 - 57/=. 3 months later we are at 76/=. And I'm not even a short term person!! Results bado. Dividends bado. A couple more years of growth bado! @Obiero is saying sell KQ at 5.50... I cannot reconcile myself with buying KQ at any price. Inverse Obiero may not be foolproof. Or should we exclude it from the ETF? @VVS - Despite our total lack of appetite to buy KQ, you saw this one real time!!! The minute @Obiero said people should sell KQ, it was time to buy!!! You just can't make this stuff up!! After all these years, the one time @Obiero insisted that people should sell KQ, it turns out it is the ONLY TIME they should have bought!! Turns out Inverse Obiero strategy has no exceptions and is actually fool 100% proof!!!Inverse Obiero strategy! Making people rich since 1999!! @Obiero - This was you earlier this year insisting everyone should sell at 5.50/=. The price rose after that!!! WOOOIIII!!!! [Screaming like those women at a funeral in Nyanza ] Funda wewe 😄 COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,996
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MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:I didn't want to say I warned you, but I did warn you About what exactly @Obiero? What just happened?? The exchange bar has peeked into Feb 2026 and it has sighted KES 48 per share from recent highs of >70. I speak in code Is there a reasoned justification you can repeat here or it is just "trust me bro!"?? At the exchange bar, we only drink and share projections. We hold no data, nor justifications. Watch and learn I doubt anyone would watch and learn anything if it is just drinking and projections with no data and no justification. I can't even imagine being part of such a conversation. "You know what? I project KQ shares will go to Kshs. 20/= by next week!" "Oh. Nice. Don't worry about sharing your reasoning. On my side, I project KCB will go to Kshs. 48/=! Good thing you are not allowed to ask for my reasoning, data or all those boring things. Coz I have none!" "Guys, anyone else wants to make a projection not based on any data or fundamentals??" Wuuueeeh!! I cannot can!!! Post #583 December last year. @Obiero warning me to stop buying KCB and probably offload. I had been buying KCB almost exclusively for a year plus at an abp of 45/= and had loaded the bulk of what I wanted. The price shot to 70s and then came back to 50s. I kept insisting that was a bargain and here I was busy buying the final batches at 50s. @Obiero as usual without a basis or justification insisted thar the price would hit 48/= by February this year!! Today 94/= prints!!!
Ignoring @Obiero, making Kenyans rich since 1902!!!Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,996
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MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:I have been a very worried man because as I have said in multiple post here, I am a buyer of KCB till early next year. I have been loading up the the entire year. I have quite a number of shares but I want to have a ridiculously high number and hold "forever". As I was waiting for the next batch of money the prices went haywire. It went all the way 72. Given my abp in the 40s level I was finding it difficult to buy at those prices (emotions NOT fundamentals ). I sat it out. Now my finger is on the trigger. I am happy buying at 50s for my next batch even though 60s is still a bargain for a share whose eps for fy 2025 will be around Kshs. 25/=!!! All the best  @Obiero - This P/E ratio is based on what? KCB's EPS fy 2024 was 18.70/=. EPS for Q3 2025 is 19.12/=. Which EPS is bringing a P/E of 6.67??? Yet another time to be glad I didn't listen to @Obiero. Bought boatloads at 56/= - 57/=. Only issue is that the price increased again before I bought my last small batch - Remaining 6% - 8% to get to my long term target number of shares. Total bought over time around 94% of long term target. Even more happier today!!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,440 Location: nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:I have been a very worried man because as I have said in multiple post here, I am a buyer of KCB till early next year. I have been loading up the the entire year. I have quite a number of shares but I want to have a ridiculously high number and hold "forever". As I was waiting for the next batch of money the prices went haywire. It went all the way 72. Given my abp in the 40s level I was finding it difficult to buy at those prices (emotions NOT fundamentals ). I sat it out. Now my finger is on the trigger. I am happy buying at 50s for my next batch even though 60s is still a bargain for a share whose eps for fy 2025 will be around Kshs. 25/=!!! All the best @Obiero - This P/E ratio is based on what? KCB's EPS fy 2024 was 18.70/=. EPS for Q3 2025 is 19.12/=. Which EPS is bringing a P/E of 6.67??? Yet another time to be glad I didn't listen to @Obiero. Bought boatloads at 56/= - 57/=. Only issue is that the price increased again before I bought my last small batch - Remaining 6% - 8% to get to my long term target number of shares. Total bought over time around 94% of long term target. Even more happier today!!! Here you tried. Atleast the dividend yield here is still highly acceptable COOP 306,100 ABP 31.96, KEGN 112,100 ABP 10.64, MTNU 131,000 ABP 10.21
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Portfolio Balancing: Avoid Over Exposure To Financial Sector
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