Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,226 Location: nairobi
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Ebenyo wrote:obiero wrote:Ebenyo wrote:obiero wrote:Be Christlike. Obiero will never leave you, nor forsake you
Cons on KQ shares
1. No dividend up to 2030 and beyond. Earliest possibly 2032
2. Capitalization is not assured. GoK can fail to secure the funding based on the KQ books, which are not desirable in current state. Delta USA actually has opted out officially of the prospective buyers. Temasek has also issued communication of nil interest
3. If strategic investment is not secured. Nationalization will be the only other real possibility and the same will lead a share suspension, followed by delisting, with a payout sum to be solely determined by GoK
4. Fly Ethiopia are doing major things at Bole. Times have changed for the Pride of Africa
5. Boeing being the preferred fleet type for KQ, is facing acute supply challenges, with new delivery backlog stretching to 2033. It means the existing fleet will continue to age, and MRO shall be costly
6. Upcoming results announcement by 18.03.2026 shall be a significant loss, which will cause a pull back on the price to possibly KES 3.80 level
7. A1 fuel spike is incoming, thus assured reduction in operating margins
Pros on KQ
1. The KQ results, especially at operating loss level as at H1 were not pleasant, but heavy lifting has happened in H2 to stop the bleeding. Now only 1 large bird, the 787 remains out of service. In Jun 2026, the 777 returns from Turkish, and is already being prepped and thereafter recoated with KQ livery
2. It is unlikely, near-impossible for KQ to turn a full year profit in 2025. At very best, expect a KES 12B loss for FY 2025
3. With confirmed stoppage of the Open Offer for minority shareholders, the USD 500,000,000 capital injection is the only critical play left on the KQ share.
4. If you are unable to hold mid-term, say two to three years, you should have sold yesterday or nearest date to yesterday
5. In case you are liquid and able to go long haul, proceed to add new stock/average down at any price below KES 8.68, noting that the KQ share may give you more returns than you ever dreamed about.
6. Watch and learn Dividend is possible before 2030.Ruto is working hard to put things in perspective. With a thin fleet and negative equity? Talks are underway for a strategic partner to chip in good cash. That will change everything. @Ebenyo. It is unlikely that a strategic investor will be found. As I said here earlier, it is GoK that will save KQ, via sales proceeds received from KPC, Teleposta and Safaricom
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