wazua Thu, Mar 5, 2026
Welcome Guest Search | Active Topics | Log In

3 Pages<123
KPC IPO - Bearish Noise
Options
Previous Topic · Next Topic
My 2 cents
#41 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 5:51:18 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,088
obiero wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
To all the people celebrating results, please be a little more sophisticated in your analysis. The IPO was largely snubbed by retail and international investors both of whom were initially allocated 20% each.
Institutional investors who were initially allocated 20% now hold 41%. Were they strongly nudged to take up more? Just as Uganda was also cajoled to take up more. I would hesitate to label this a successful IPO.

Hehe. A win is a win

The community of wazua I hope promotes investment analysis rigour rather that talking in codes.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
obiero
#42 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 7:33:22 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,180
Location: nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:
obiero wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
To all the people celebrating results, please be a little more sophisticated in your analysis. The IPO was largely snubbed by retail and international investors both of whom were initially allocated 20% each.
Institutional investors who were initially allocated 20% now hold 41%. Were they strongly nudged to take up more? Just as Uganda was also cajoled to take up more. I would hesitate to label this a successful IPO.

Hehe. A win is a win

The community of wazua I hope promotes investment analysis rigour rather that talking in codes.

Was the IPO oversubscribed or not. What analysis do you require around that particular fact. The only thing here is that KPC shall be an illiquid stock, so the price will not plunge upon listing despite it being overpriced as already mentioned by multiple sophisticated analysts

KQ ABP 4.26
Back to top
WWW
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM | Edit by user: Wednesday, March 04, 2026 7:44 PM | Reason: Not specified
My 2 cents
#43 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 8:14:50 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 6/2/2010
Posts: 1,088
Let me explain very simply in a way that is accessible to Obiero. If you go to the market to sell 100 mangoes and in the evening 50 mangoes are unsold. You then sell them to yourself and declare success. Is this rational? Do you go home and brag to your wife about your 100% sales?
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
stocksmaster
#44 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 8:24:26 PM
Rank: Member


Joined: 9/26/2006
Posts: 462
Location: CENTRAL PROVINCE
mufasa wrote:
@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.

I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.

This thing will go up before it comes down


OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute.

Happy Hunting
x handle: @stocksmaster79
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
obiero
#45 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 8:26:07 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/23/2009
Posts: 14,180
Location: nairobi
My 2 cents wrote:
Let me explain very simply in a way that is accessible to Obiero. If you go to the market to sell 100 mangoes and in the evening 50 mangoes are unsold. You then sell them to yourself and declare success. Is this rational? Do you go home and brag to your wife about your 100% sales?

Hehe. What an example

KQ ABP 4.26
Back to top
WWW
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
MaichBlack
#46 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 11:47:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
My 2 cents wrote:
The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO.

The underallocations were taken up by GoK

Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes.

When staff snub the IPO...

When OMCs snub the IPO...

And the magnitude of the snubbing tells it all. OMCs 0.014% vs allocated 15%! Staff 0.06% vs allocated 5%!!

Who understands the business and its nitty-gritties better???
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM | Edit by user: Wednesday, March 04, 2026 11:50 PM | Reason: Not specified
MaichBlack
#47 Posted : Wednesday, March 04, 2026 11:59:18 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
All employees combined bought 63.6m worth of shares.

The MD and another like 4 guys in top management would have taken that much if they had faith in the business vis-a-vis the valuation!

That is even before you include the board of directors!!

And mind you they must have bought some "save face" shares by "force" lest they annoy the system!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
MaichBlack
#48 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 12:00:54 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
All employees combined bought 63.6m worth of shares.

The MD and another like 4 guys in top management would have taken that much if they had faith in the business vis-a-vis the valuation!

That is even before you include the board of directors!!

And mind you they must have bought some "save face" shares by "force" lest they annoy the system!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
MaichBlack
#49 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 12:03:07 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
Kusadikika wrote:
My 2 cents wrote:
The oil marketing companies and KPC staff initially allocated 15% and 5% respectively also snubbed the IPO.

The underallocations were taken up by GoK

Guys this IPO failed for all intents and purposes.


Exactly. It was a complete flop. Kenya Institutional Investors is NSSF which is GOK controlled. So what happened here is GOK sold KPC to itself. Or rather misallocated Kenyans pension money to overpay for an asset that everyone else refused to buy. OMCs keeping away should tell you something, they would have been the most interested. They understand the business better than anyone else and would have had access to the most funds.

Exactly!!!

Hapa I am sure our money in NSSF imeonyeshwa moto!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#50 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 6:12:01 AM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,644
All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics

"It's 1982
The market's through the roof
We're living plenty high on the swine
I'm finally sitting pretty
In Oklahoma City
Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight

Scared money don't make nothing
Nothing in life will come free
Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good
Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..."


Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market opensmile
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
dunkang
#51 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 9:53:25 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 6/2/2011
Posts: 4,820
Location: -1.2107, 36.8831
wukan wrote:
All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics

"It's 1982
The market's through the roof
We're living plenty high on the swine
I'm finally sitting pretty
In Oklahoma City
Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight

Scared money don't make nothing
Nothing in life will come free
Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good
Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..."


Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market opensmile

One thing am 100% sure about, NO ONE IS BUYING AT 9/-.

Either you 2.5% people hold on to your shares and wait for dividends for ever, or sell at below 9/-.

Any one buying at above 9/- will just be buying from him/herself to manipulate the price
Receive with simplicity everything that happens to you.” ― Rashi

Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM | Edit by user: Thursday, March 05, 2026 9:54 AM | Reason: Not specified
MaichBlack
#52 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 10:48:18 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
dunkang wrote:
wukan wrote:
All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics

"It's 1982
The market's through the roof
We're living plenty high on the swine
I'm finally sitting pretty
In Oklahoma City
Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight

Scared money don't make nothing
Nothing in life will come free
Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good
Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..."


Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market opensmile

One thing am 100% sure about, NO ONE IS BUYING AT 9/-.

Either you 2.5% people hold on to your shares and wait for dividends for ever, or sell at below 9/-.

Any one buying at above 9/- will just be buying from him/herself to manipulate the price

And Uganda has the veto on how much that dividend should be. In addition to any tarriff changes. And it is Uganda's self interest to keep these low! Actually the only reason the demand the vero power.

Earth is hard!!!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
MaichBlack
#53 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 10:52:55 AM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
The only interest Uganda has is for KPC not to collapse. If it can remain operational and break even, it would be a great outcome for them!!! It would actually be the most desirable outcome.

A minority entity with only 20% ownership being a major customer and setting prices for themselves!! Absurdity of the highest order!! Who were our negotiators? Or most importantly, what was/is in it for them???
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
xtina
#54 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 11:00:32 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 391
wukan wrote:
All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics

"It's 1982
The market's through the roof
We're living plenty high on the swine
I'm finally sitting pretty
In Oklahoma City
Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight

Scared money don't make nothing
Nothing in life will come free
Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good
Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..."


Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market opensmile


Weak hands na 2.56% smile still welcome though
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
xtina
#55 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 11:05:57 AM
Rank: Member


Joined: 6/26/2008
Posts: 391
100% allocation Applause Applause for all retail investors. SMS and emails from registrar announcing no refunds. Shares to be credited tomorrow.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
MaichBlack
#56 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 12:02:04 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
xtina wrote:
100% allocation Applause Applause for all retail investors. SMS and emails from registrar announcing no refunds. Shares to be credited tomorrow.

Was there any other way out??? Only 2.56% applied!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM | Edit by user: Thursday, March 05, 2026 12:03 PM | Reason: Not specified
MaichBlack
#57 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 12:06:16 PM
Rank: Elder


Joined: 7/22/2009
Posts: 7,797
xtina wrote:
100% allocation Applause Applause for all retail investors. SMS and emails from registrar announcing no refunds. Shares to be credited tomorrow.

How is this even good news!! It means 100% of you money will start losing value as soon as the trading bell rings.

If I had somehow appied (never would have!), and things turn out the way they have, I would have loved a 40% allocation (or less) meaning 60% of my money is safe and comes back to me!
Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#58 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 1:42:28 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,644
dunkang wrote:
wukan wrote:
All I can say is to quote Southall scared money lyrics

"It's 1982
The market's through the roof
We're living plenty high on the swine
I'm finally sitting pretty
In Oklahoma City
Ain't nothing gonna stop me tonight

Scared money don't make nothing
Nothing in life will come free
Grab what you can carry while the gettin's still good
Or nothing is all you're ever gonna be..."


Let's now wait for the weak hands at the market opensmile

One thing am 100% sure about, NO ONE IS BUYING AT 9/-.

Either you 2.5% people hold on to your shares and wait for dividends for ever, or sell at below 9/-.

Any one buying at above 9/- will just be buying from him/herself to manipulate the price


Why are you taking the painkillers for someone else's headache?
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
wukan
#59 Posted : Thursday, March 05, 2026 2:23:48 PM
Rank: Veteran


Joined: 11/13/2015
Posts: 1,644
stocksmaster wrote:
mufasa wrote:
@xtina thanks. I've seen the allocations.

I think that's good for the retail investor, the likelihood of hitting 12bob in the coming month is high.

This thing will go up before it comes down


OMCs, Retail Investors, International Investors and even KPC employees all avoided this at Ksh 9.....unless NSSF wants to add onto its share holding on this, limited demand will pull it lower on listing especially now with the Iran issue hence potential limitations on oil supply for KPC to distribute.

Happy Hunting


I thought they announced that more than 600 institutional investors bought more than 3x their allocation
Back to top
 Report Abusive | Report SPAM
Users browsing this topic
Guest, Maboso
3 Pages<123
Forum Jump  
You cannot post new topics in this forum.
You cannot reply to topics in this forum.
You cannot delete your posts in this forum.
You cannot edit your posts in this forum.
You cannot create polls in this forum.
You cannot vote in polls in this forum.

Wazua Investor Theme
Powered by YAF | YAF © 2003-2009, Yet Another Forum.NET
Copyright © 2026 Wazua.co.ke. All Rights Reserved.