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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,785
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stocksmaster wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:stocksmaster wrote:stocksmaster wrote:littledove wrote:https://ntvkenya.co.ke/news/treasury-to-raise-sh100-billion-from-selling-kenya-pipeline/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=NTV+SocialsThe National Treasury expects to raise approximately Sh100 billion from the privatisation of the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) shares through an initial public offering at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The Treasury says the proceeds from the KPC sale will be used to fund priority public services and infrastructure. A Sessional Paper on the Privatisation of Kenya Pipeline Company through an Initial Public Offering (IPO), tabled in the National Assembly, shows that the proceeds of the sale will enable the government to raise funds budgeted for in 2025/26, to implement economic and social objectives. ........................ “The company is wholly owned by the government of Kenya, with 99.9 percent shareholding held by the National Treasury and about 0.1 percent by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum.” The KPC maintains an extensive pipeline network spanning 1,342 kilometres, and in the financial year 2023/24, reported Sh35.4 billion in revenue and a Profit After Tax of Sh6.9 billion, contributing dividends to the National Treasury. The maths is not adding up. Let's do some quick calculations: What we know is that the GoK will list 65% of KPC shares. The net profit for 2024 for KPC was Ksh 6.9bn. If we apportion 65% of this net profit to the public shares to be sold, that adds up to about 4.5bn. If the target is truly to raise 100bn from the 65% stake, that means the IPO share price will be at a P/E of over 22! (Price of 100bn/Attributable net profit of 4.5bn). KenGen for comparison is trading at a trailing P/E of below 7 making the potential KPC IPO offer share price three times more expensive. If the KPC offer is to be sold at same market metrics as Kengen (Price per earnings of about 7), then the realistic cash to be generated for a 65% sale of KPC based on an annual net profit of about Ksh 7Bn would be 1/3rd of that 100bn....about Ksh 30-33bn. Happy Hunting With KPC IPO details now out, it seems my calculations were spot on. The IPO is being offered at a P/E of almost 22 {Ksh 9÷0.4122} so as to generate Ksh 100bn. Thats a crazy valuation when compared to Kengen (P/E of 6) and KPLC (P/E of 1) being the other GoK energy stocks they will share an NSE category. I wonder whether the transaction advisors are oblivious of the market? Wanjiku will buy based on hype but am curious about institutional and high net worth investors. An interesting IPO but will seat out of this one as I wait it post market at my target price of Ksh 2.50. Happy Hunting Thanks @Stockmaster for you analysis. Interesting times we are living in. I am also wondering if there is more than meets the eye here! My trust for this government is at an all time low. As you clearly point out, the transaction advisors cannot be that clueless!!! Is someone trying to grab KPC by for example doing everything to ensure there is a massive under subscription and then the government being later "forced" to do a private placement! After all, the public was given a chance to buy the shares and "they refused" to buy them and the government still needs/wants to raise the cash!!! Or is someone just trying to shaft Kenyans!!?? But it will not be easy to shaft institutional investors and gullible retail investors cannot take up 100B worth of shares! (informed ones will sit it out) KenGen had a "private placement" of sorts to PIC (SA). And if the public does not buy at 9/- then let someone else buy at 9/-. If anything, the "Buyer of Last Resort" [your someone trying to grab KPC] makes no sense since they could apply for the shares during the IPO as well. I am thinking of a situation where the private placement is done later to a "strategic investor" at a huge discount and all sorts of excuses given including the lower uptake during the IPO. The uptake may actually surprise us since business wise it would be very strategic for OMCs to control KPC.With KPC having acquired Kenya Petroleum Refineries Ltd assets (tanks and over 250 acres land most of it near port), and having negligible debt in its balance sheet, a strategic long term investor could comfortably acquire the shares at current pricing and leverage the balance sheet for debt to grow the current regional oil pipeline near monopoly business while diversifying to other potential related ventures e.g LPG energy generation. This whoever applies mainly to a large investor that can take a significant stake to have board influence in actualising the long term full potential of the company. As such,this IPO is tailored and priced for long term strategic investors and OMCs and not Wanjiku and other short term investors. Happy Hunting I agree with you on that. But only 15% is reserved for all OMCs combined. But I suspect there is a clause that allows them to take up unallocated shares in other categories if there is an oversubscription in theirs and under subscription in others. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,166 Location: nairobi
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MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:stocksmaster wrote:stocksmaster wrote:littledove wrote:https://ntvkenya.co.ke/news/treasury-to-raise-sh100-billion-from-selling-kenya-pipeline/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=NTV+SocialsThe National Treasury expects to raise approximately Sh100 billion from the privatisation of the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) shares through an initial public offering at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The Treasury says the proceeds from the KPC sale will be used to fund priority public services and infrastructure. A Sessional Paper on the Privatisation of Kenya Pipeline Company through an Initial Public Offering (IPO), tabled in the National Assembly, shows that the proceeds of the sale will enable the government to raise funds budgeted for in 2025/26, to implement economic and social objectives. ........................ “The company is wholly owned by the government of Kenya, with 99.9 percent shareholding held by the National Treasury and about 0.1 percent by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum.” The KPC maintains an extensive pipeline network spanning 1,342 kilometres, and in the financial year 2023/24, reported Sh35.4 billion in revenue and a Profit After Tax of Sh6.9 billion, contributing dividends to the National Treasury. The maths is not adding up. Let's do some quick calculations: What we know is that the GoK will list 65% of KPC shares. The net profit for 2024 for KPC was Ksh 6.9bn. If we apportion 65% of this net profit to the public shares to be sold, that adds up to about 4.5bn. If the target is truly to raise 100bn from the 65% stake, that means the IPO share price will be at a P/E of over 22! (Price of 100bn/Attributable net profit of 4.5bn). KenGen for comparison is trading at a trailing P/E of below 7 making the potential KPC IPO offer share price three times more expensive. If the KPC offer is to be sold at same market metrics as Kengen (Price per earnings of about 7), then the realistic cash to be generated for a 65% sale of KPC based on an annual net profit of about Ksh 7Bn would be 1/3rd of that 100bn....about Ksh 30-33bn. Happy Hunting With KPC IPO details now out, it seems my calculations were spot on. The IPO is being offered at a P/E of almost 22 {Ksh 9÷0.4122} so as to generate Ksh 100bn. Thats a crazy valuation when compared to Kengen (P/E of 6) and KPLC (P/E of 1) being the other GoK energy stocks they will share an NSE category. I wonder whether the transaction advisors are oblivious of the market? Wanjiku will buy based on hype but am curious about institutional and high net worth investors. An interesting IPO but will seat out of this one as I wait it post market at my target price of Ksh 2.50. Happy Hunting Thanks @Stockmaster for you analysis. Interesting times we are living in. I am also wondering if there is more than meets the eye here! My trust for this government is at an all time low. As you clearly point out, the transaction advisors cannot be that clueless!!! Is someone trying to grab KPC by for example doing everything to ensure there is a massive under subscription and then the government being later "forced" to do a private placement! After all, the public was given a chance to buy the shares and "they refused" to buy them and the government still needs/wants to raise the cash!!! Or is someone just trying to shaft Kenyans!!?? But it will not be easy to shaft institutional investors and gullible retail investors cannot take up 100B worth of shares! (informed ones will sit it out) KenGen had a "private placement" of sorts to PIC (SA). And if the public does not buy at 9/- then let someone else buy at 9/-. If anything, the "Buyer of Last Resort" [your someone trying to grab KPC] makes no sense since they could apply for the shares during the IPO as well. I am thinking of a situation where the private placement is done later to a "strategic investor" at a huge discount and all sorts of excuses given including the lower uptake during the IPO. the uptake is not low Leta verified data. Preferably a link, not grapevine, exchange bar bla bla, "speaking in code" etc., @xtina avoid rumour mongers. deal with people who have facts on the ground
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,166 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:obiero wrote:Ericsson wrote:obiero wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:My 2 cents wrote:xtina wrote:My 2 cents wrote:It is the mwanainchi's fault if they sell out of their allocations. I suspect many Kenyans bought Safaricom at IPO and sold out later when it went sub 5. We have a second opportunity to load up now that international investors are dumping, but how many Kenyans are taking advantage of this rare opportunity? Very few are taking advantage but honestly speaking, NSE is just not a priority for a majority of Kenyans. In the past two years, I have tried to bring up story ya shares and everyone looks at me funny  I realized I sound very out-of-touch and elitist because everyone else is more concerned with fuel and unga ya 200 bob. Majority Kenyans prefer to invest in land and sacco shares. Several Kenyans also got burned with the shenanigans of brokers years past. Those folks will never return to the NSE. It will take a new generation with no hang ups about the NSE to revive interest in the bourse. Meanwhile anyone with the balls of steel needed to buy and hold this market over a long period will eventually make out like a bandit. Valuations are ridiculously cheap. Some firms' have DYs that are similar to bonds! Let's say you get (net) 9% DY (for a good firm) vs (net) 12% (Interest for a 5-year T-Bond) then the difference is only 3% which is 17% (compounded) over 5 years. There is a good chance that the firm to grow its EPS and DPS which does not happen with Bonds. The valuations (PER) could also increase giving an investor a much better Total Return by 2027. KPC to list on the NSE in next 111 days Uwongo Stop embarrassing yourself https://youtu.be/C5owVRFx2UM?si=FwLVXTRVvV8u3eLI
110 days left. Let's look at it on 1 August then 1 September then 1 October and so on High court says KPC should pay River Thange victims 3.8bn @obiero How many days left? Hehe. Don't jinx it mzee @vvs. You might remind the courts of the KES 25B claim around the Mukuru-Sinai tragedy 😅 up next KQ
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Elder Joined: 6/23/2009 Posts: 14,166 Location: nairobi
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obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:obiero wrote:MaichBlack wrote:VituVingiSana wrote:MaichBlack wrote:stocksmaster wrote:stocksmaster wrote:littledove wrote:https://ntvkenya.co.ke/news/treasury-to-raise-sh100-billion-from-selling-kenya-pipeline/?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=NTV+SocialsThe National Treasury expects to raise approximately Sh100 billion from the privatisation of the Kenya Pipeline Company (KPC) shares through an initial public offering at the Nairobi Securities Exchange. The Treasury says the proceeds from the KPC sale will be used to fund priority public services and infrastructure. A Sessional Paper on the Privatisation of Kenya Pipeline Company through an Initial Public Offering (IPO), tabled in the National Assembly, shows that the proceeds of the sale will enable the government to raise funds budgeted for in 2025/26, to implement economic and social objectives. ........................ “The company is wholly owned by the government of Kenya, with 99.9 percent shareholding held by the National Treasury and about 0.1 percent by the Ministry of Energy and Petroleum.” The KPC maintains an extensive pipeline network spanning 1,342 kilometres, and in the financial year 2023/24, reported Sh35.4 billion in revenue and a Profit After Tax of Sh6.9 billion, contributing dividends to the National Treasury. The maths is not adding up. Let's do some quick calculations: What we know is that the GoK will list 65% of KPC shares. The net profit for 2024 for KPC was Ksh 6.9bn. If we apportion 65% of this net profit to the public shares to be sold, that adds up to about 4.5bn. If the target is truly to raise 100bn from the 65% stake, that means the IPO share price will be at a P/E of over 22! (Price of 100bn/Attributable net profit of 4.5bn). KenGen for comparison is trading at a trailing P/E of below 7 making the potential KPC IPO offer share price three times more expensive. If the KPC offer is to be sold at same market metrics as Kengen (Price per earnings of about 7), then the realistic cash to be generated for a 65% sale of KPC based on an annual net profit of about Ksh 7Bn would be 1/3rd of that 100bn....about Ksh 30-33bn. Happy Hunting With KPC IPO details now out, it seems my calculations were spot on. The IPO is being offered at a P/E of almost 22 {Ksh 9÷0.4122} so as to generate Ksh 100bn. Thats a crazy valuation when compared to Kengen (P/E of 6) and KPLC (P/E of 1) being the other GoK energy stocks they will share an NSE category. I wonder whether the transaction advisors are oblivious of the market? Wanjiku will buy based on hype but am curious about institutional and high net worth investors. An interesting IPO but will seat out of this one as I wait it post market at my target price of Ksh 2.50. Happy Hunting Thanks @Stockmaster for you analysis. Interesting times we are living in. I am also wondering if there is more than meets the eye here! My trust for this government is at an all time low. As you clearly point out, the transaction advisors cannot be that clueless!!! Is someone trying to grab KPC by for example doing everything to ensure there is a massive under subscription and then the government being later "forced" to do a private placement! After all, the public was given a chance to buy the shares and "they refused" to buy them and the government still needs/wants to raise the cash!!! Or is someone just trying to shaft Kenyans!!?? But it will not be easy to shaft institutional investors and gullible retail investors cannot take up 100B worth of shares! (informed ones will sit it out) KenGen had a "private placement" of sorts to PIC (SA). And if the public does not buy at 9/- then let someone else buy at 9/-. If anything, the "Buyer of Last Resort" [your someone trying to grab KPC] makes no sense since they could apply for the shares during the IPO as well. I am thinking of a situation where the private placement is done later to a "strategic investor" at a huge discount and all sorts of excuses given including the lower uptake during the IPO. the uptake is not low Leta verified data. Preferably a link, not grapevine, exchange bar bla bla, "speaking in code" etc., @xtina avoid rumour mongers. deal with people who have facts on the ground 
KQ ABP 4.26
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 387
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Institutional investors drive demand in Kenya state oil pipeline's IPO, adviser says
By Duncan Miriri and Elias Biryabarema
February 25, 20263:53 PM GMT+3Updated February 25, 2026
Deal is largest ever in region in local currency terms
Adviser rejects criticism of low retail investor demand
Uganda has said it secured a 20% stake in pipeline via IPO
NAIROBI, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Appetite from institutional investors has made for an oversubscribed initial public offering in Kenya's state oil pipeline firm, the lead adviser for the transaction said on Wednesday, countering reports of investor apathy.
In the sale that ran from January 19 to February 24, the government offered a 65% stake in Kenya Pipeline Company, to raise 106.3 billion shillings ($825.31 million) in what would be East Africa's biggest ever IPO in local currency terms.
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The deal team is reconciling the IPO's returns and the results will be issued on March 4.
Nairobi-based lead transaction adviser Belgrad Kenne of Faida Investment Bank declined to disclose the oversubscription level or identify institutional investors, saying only they had contributed to excess demand and that the offering had also snagged a "sizeable" retail investor participation.
The IPO, which was priced at 9.00 shillings per share, has been shadowed by lower valuations by some banks, an extension of the offer period and reports in local media that investors were apathetic.
Such reports have stirred concerns that the stock could become illiquid once it is listed on the Nairobi bourse, since institutional investors such as pension funds or banks tend to hold their shares for longer than individuals.
Of the total stake on offer, 15% is reserved for oil marketing companies, 5% for employees and the remainder will be allocated to local retail, local institutional, East African and foreign investors, with each category receiving 20%.
The government will retain a 35% stake and receive all the proceeds from the IPO.
UGANDA SECURES STAKE IN PIPELINE
The government of Uganda, a landlocked neighbour that relies on the Kenyan pipeline to move its petroleum products through the port of Mombasa, has said it secured a 20.15% shareholding in the company through the IPO.
"Imports through Kenya account for over 95% of Uganda's monthly demand," Uganda's Energy Minister Ruth Nankabirwa told a news briefing on Tuesday, justifying the investment in Kenya Pipeline, which gets 35% of its revenue from Uganda.
The sale of Kenya Pipeline shares is part of President William Ruto's drive to divest from state companies. The government is also reducing its stake in telecoms operator Safaricom (SCOM.NR), opens new tab.
The pipeline IPO is likely to surpass the 2008 Safaricom offering, which raised just over 50 billion shillings. In dollar terms, the Safaricom IPO will still rank as the region's largest due to the weakening of the Kenyan shilling.
($1 = 128.8000 Kenyan shillings)
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,785
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How Uganda saved the KPC IPO!!Oversubscribed??? I doubt. Let the data come out. I am hearing 53% after Uganda took up 30% of the shares on offer. The IPO had collapsed before the extension and Uganda saving the day!! Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Member Joined: 6/26/2008 Posts: 387
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Moving on from the successful KPC IPO, upcoming: The Kenyan government's Privatisation Act 2025 (upheld by court Feb 2026) targets divestiture in these 11 priority SOEs for efficiency & investment: 1. Kenya Pipeline Company (65% IPO ongoing, ~KSh 106B target) 2. Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) 3. New Kenya Co-operative Creameries 4. Kenya Seed Company 5. National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOCK) 6. Kenya Literature Bureau 7. Western Kenya Rice Mills 8. Numerical Machining Complex 9. Kenya Vehicle Manufacturers (35% stake) 10. Rivatex East Africa 11. Mwea Rice Mills Broader plans include strategic foreign investor for Kenya Airways (~KSh 258B deal) & approved divestitures via Privatisation Authority (e.g. Consolidated Bank, multiple sugar firms like Chemelil/Nzoia). JKIA is PPP modernization only—no outright sale. Full details: http://privatisation.go.ke.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,785
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The Uganda KPC deal: Influence without majority ownership!!!Terrible news to anyone who bought KPC shares and Kenyans in general! Uganda now has veto power in decisions made at KPC! Influence without majority ownership. When a major customer who has strategic reasons to keep tarriffs/prices low has the veto power in a company that you own shares in, you can kiss profit growth good bye. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Veteran Joined: 6/8/2010 Posts: 1,734
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MaichBlack wrote:The Uganda KPC deal: Influence without majority ownership!!!Terrible news to anyone who bought KPC shares and Kenyans in general! Uganda now has veto power in decisions made at KPC! Influence without majority ownership. When a major customer who has strategic reasons to keep tarriffs/prices low has the veto power in a company that you own shares in, you can kiss profit growth good bye. Seems like you really wanted this IPO to fail. Or you are part of brigade that wants everything Kaongo touches to be a failure Life is an endless adventure
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Rank: Chief Joined: 1/3/2007 Posts: 18,329 Location: Nairobi
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xtina wrote:Moving on from the successful KPC IPO, upcoming: The Kenyan government's Privatisation Act 2025 (upheld by court Feb 2026) targets divestiture in these 11 priority SOEs for efficiency & investment: 1. Kenya Pipeline Company (65% IPO ongoing, ~KSh 106B target) 2. Kenyatta International Convention Centre (KICC) 3. New Kenya Co-operative Creameries 4. Kenya Seed Company 5. National Oil Corporation of Kenya (NOCK) 6. Kenya Literature Bureau 7. Western Kenya Rice Mills 8. Numerical Machining Complex 9. Kenya Vehicle Manufacturers (35% stake) 10. Rivatex East Africa 11. Mwea Rice Mills Broader plans include strategic foreign investor for Kenya Airways (~KSh 258B deal) & approved divestitures via Privatisation Authority (e.g. Consolidated Bank, multiple sugar firms like Chemelil/Nzoia). JKIA is PPP modernization only—no outright sale. Full details: http://privatisation.go.ke. Good to have GoK exit, or reduce its stake, from all of these firms. KICC, NOCK, Rice Mills, Rivatex, NMC, KLB, KCC, etc are not strategic in any form or fashion. Let them survive or die on their own. No more bailouts. Greedy when others are fearful. Very fearful when others are greedy - to paraphrase Warren Buffett
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,785
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freiks wrote:MaichBlack wrote:The Uganda KPC deal: Influence without majority ownership!!!Terrible news to anyone who bought KPC shares and Kenyans in general! Uganda now has veto power in decisions made at KPC! Influence without majority ownership. When a major customer who has strategic reasons to keep tarriffs/prices low has the veto power in a company that you own shares in, you can kiss profit growth good bye. Seems like you really wanted this IPO to fail. Or you are part of brigade that wants everything Kaongo touches to be a failure You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. I am presenting you with facts! Discuss the facts. Wachana na emotions kwa investment space. If any of the facts I have presented are wrong, point that out and present the correct ones. Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,785
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@Freiks - I am only interested in investments. Hebu enda huko politics section and see if I have posted anything about the fellow you are talking about since he got into office!!! Ukipata uniambie. Generalized emotions and investment don't mix. You will find this out one day the hard way!! If there is a wonderful opportunity, I grab it no matter who is behind it. If an "opportunity" is a load of crap, I stay away no matter who is behind it. The whole of last year I have been buying KCB. Do you know the major shareholder??? So I have been buying it hoping it will fail or how will you spin this one??? Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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Rank: Elder Joined: 7/22/2009 Posts: 7,785
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@Freiks - Uganda has been given veto powers in KPC including on tarriff reviews, dividend payments, hiring and firing of the MD etc. 95% of Uganda's monthly petroleum demand passes through Kenya. 65% of transit volumes through the Kenya pipeline system are destined for Uganda. Tarriff changes affect fuel prices in Uganda. Uganda will own ONLY 20.15% of KPC (meaning only 20.15% of profits made/dividends paid) but all the veto powers and interests mentioned. Discuss. [60 marks] Never count on making a good sale. Have the purchase price be so attractive that even a mediocre sale gives good returns.
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